New Q-Poll

The new Quinnipiac University poll has good news for Freddy and maybe a little for Mike. Freddy hits the magic number, 40% in the primary, needed to avoid a run-off.

We’re particularly interested in what this poll says about what the Times accurately identifies as the key battleground in a Ferrer-Bloomberg face-off, the black vote. According to the poll, Freddy wins this 61% to 23%, and Freddy appears to get more even African-American backing than the only black candidate in the race, C. Virginia Fields.

But if you look more closely at those numbers, there’s actually some bad news for Freddy. Mike got 25% of the black vote in 2001. If you assume that most of the 16% of “undecided” and “other” in the Q-poll wind up voting for someone, Mike winds up near 30%. Not enough to win, but it helps.

Anyway, we’re not the only ones wondering what plans Freddy’s rivals have to knock him back down under 40%.

CORRECTION: We’re embarassed to admit we misread the approval numbers in an earlier version of this post. The item you’re seeing now is corrected. Stop the IM madness.