But this theory depended on the single most important event in the race, the Times endorsement, going Eva's way. And Sunday's City Section has rearranged the odds: with a vigorous endorsement from the Times, Stringer is now both insider and outsider. The endorsement included a strange slap at Eva -- "abrasive," as though New York politics were currently suffering from a surplus of vigorous debate.

The dozen or so candidates will all be gunning for Stringer now, but they've got a tough job. This race is the classic case of New York Times power: it's too small a job for ordinary people to pay much attention, but too big an electorate for a candidate to win based on energy, shaken hands, and a personal network alone.