For you poll-heads, some more details on that Pace Poll, done with the Observer, WNYC, and WCBS, which isn’t yet online, but will be soon here.
The poll surveyed 538 “prime” voters, those the pollsters figured were likeliest to vote on November 8.
Here’s from the analysis, by Pace’s Jon Trichter and Chris Paige:
“Mayor Michael Bloomberg is poised to trounce his Democratic challenger, former Bronx Borough President Fernando Ferrer, in this year’s mayoral election. At the moment, he is leading by a margin of more than 2 to 1 (58% to 27%). Bloomberg leads Ferrer in every demographic group, save one (The Young – or voters under the age of 34). He’s even leading among Latinos (53% to 35%), Bronx Residents (52% to 36%), The Working Poor (50% to 37%), and Blacks (44% to 29%). Ferrer may well be correct when he says there are two New Yorks, but they both want to vote for Bloomberg.
“The Pace Poll modeled several turnout scenarios, depending on the number of voters who actually make it to their polling places come Election Day, and we found the Mayor’s performance improves as turnout declines; in a high-turnout election, Bloomberg wins 56% to 27%; in a moderate turnout election, he wins 63% to 28%, and in a low-turnout election, he wins 67% to 21%.
“Ferrer’s collapse and the concomitant lack of suspense surrounding the race’s outcome might keep enough minority voters at home to prevent 2005 from becoming the first mayoral election in which minorities cast a majority of the votes.
“Although identity politics has always been a central fact of city politics, Ferrer’s chance to become the first Latino mayor of New York generates only mild excitement among voters: 20% consider it either a strong (12%) or somewhat strong (8%) reason to vote for him while just 4% admit to thinking it is a reason to vote against him. Strikingly, three in four voters (75%) think Ferrer’s chance to become the first Latino mayor makes no difference to their vote. Of course, this variable is more important to Latinos, 28% of whom describe it as a reason to vote for him. But if one wants to truly appreciate the utter lack of interest in Ferrer’s bid to become New York’s first Latino mayor, one needs look no further than this fact: two-thirds (66%) of Latinos say his ethnicity makes no difference in their vote.
“Generally speaking, these numbers call into question that fundamental assumption of local politics: the potential for a Black-Brown coalition. It’s difficult to imagine a Black-Brown coalition succeeding when half of that potential partnership doesn’t care one way or the other.”