Prognostication Sweepstakes

In the days before yesterday’s election, The Politicker asked a number of people who work in and around politics to predict the outcome. Many preferred not to (cowards!) but a couple dozen went along with the admittedly silly exercise.

There was a bit of a wisdom of crowds result here: the median prediction, as it turns out, was right on — 58.5% for Mike. A lot better than those public polls.

There is also a clear winner of this contest, for which the prize is honor alone. Political Consultant Joe Mercurio not only hit Mike’s number on the nose, to the first decimal place; he was also just 0.2% off Freddy’s number. Mike McKeon also hit Mike’s number right, but unwisely discounted the Ognibene/McMillan factor. Isac Weinberger and I did pretty well too.

The predictions, which range from a Bloomberg landslide to a Ferrer squeaker:

New York Magazine scribe Chris Smith: 68-30
New York Post bomb-thrower Fred Dicker: 65-33
Former Working Familes worker Adina Berrios: 62-37
Most-Quoted Man in New York Doug Muzzio: 60-38
Television Instigator Andrew Kirtzman: 60-38
NY1 Host Davidson Goldin: 59-37
Labor Politcal Guy Peter Colavito: 59-39
Brooklyn Loyalist Michael Tobman: 59-39
The Ubiquitous Isac Weinberger: 59-38
Newsday’s Exiled Glenn Thrush: 59-37
GOP Tough-Guy Mike McKeon: 58.5-41.5
Reality: 58.5-38.7
Mercurio: 58.5-38.5
Miller Speechwriter Noel Hartman: 58-41
Fields Campaign Chief Chung Seto: 58-41
State GOP Director Ryan Moses: 58-40
Me, Guessing Blindly: 58-39
Crainian Insider Anne Michaud: 57-42
Brooklyn Aficionado Bob Liff: 57-40
GOTV Guru Kevin Wardally: 57-40
East Side GOPer Lolita Jackson: 56-42
Hank Aide Dave Vermilion: 56-40
The Conservative Hank Sheinkopf: 54-42
And a Hopeful Rafael Martinez Alequin: 47-50

Rafi brought the “It’s Over” New York Post cover to Freddy’s “victory party,” telling anyone who would listen that he had it ready for Ferrer’s Dewey-Defeats-Truman moment.

Several people also submitted their guesses on the rest of the ballot, and Kevin Wardally did best on that score, predicting a Democratic Council sweep and a Corzine win, calling the ballot measures right, and coming in just a few minutes late on the timing of Freddy’s concession speech.

Thanks for playing!