Oscar Predictions: The Night All Gyllenhaals Will Be Ignored, Or, In Praise of Trannies

The Transom has seen a whole hell of a lot of movies this year and is a know-it-all and a total busy-body and sometimes pretends to be psychic at parties. So, why not jump in the Oscar pool?

Best Actress
Felicity Huffman beats out Judi Dench and Reese Witherspoon and Naomi, improbably, Watts. Maybe, maybe a nom for Renee Zellweger, who was awful good in that awful bad Ron Howard movie.

Best Actor
Philip Seymour Hoffman squeaks past Joaquin Phoenix, with much moaning about Heath Ledger robbery. (If we’re going to rob Heath Ledger, incidentally, can we also strip him and tie him up? Just checking!) The real robbery though will be of Cillian Murphy. (Amazingly, there is a tiny tiny possibility that best actor and actress could both be parts played as transsexuals. That is crazy.) There’s also the whole Eric Bana non-issue that people are talking about. And sadly, Ralph Fiennes will sit nobly in the audience, waiting, waiting, anger growing….

Supporting Actor
Terrence Howard, for Crash. Sadly, not superfox Craig Bierko for Cinderella Man, who probably won’t even get nominated. Nominated, but: not Jamie Foxx, not George Clooney. Also not Matthew Broderick.

Supporting Actress
Gong! Gong Li, that is. Tilda Swinton, the White Witch, gets hideously robbed, possibly even snubbed for a nomination. That is a crime, she was amazing. Shirley Maclaine nominated, doesn’t win. Catherine Keener, probably should, doesn’t win. Uma Thurman, doesn’t win.

Best Picture
Not that barf-fest Cinderella Man, praise be. Munich detracts from Walk The Line, and the large dieting segment of the Academy goes in for now-skinny Peter Jackson’s King Kong, which means Brokeback Mountain wins.

Director
Ang Lee beats nominees George Clooney (don’t laugh!) and Woody Allen and James Mangold –and maybe even Noah Baumbach.

Doc
Oh, Murderball beats out Mad Hot Ballroom and March of the Penguins and Enron.

Cinematographer
Roger Deakins beats Cesar Charlone.

Screenplay
The Squid and the Whale.

Adaptation
Well, hey, Brokeback Mountain–unless in a crazy upset, Shopgirl beats out Jarhead, both of which were fairly lovely scripts MARRED HIDEOUSLY by TERRIBLE VOICE-OVER NARRATION, particularly in the final scenes. WHEN WILL YOU PEOPLE LEARN? STOP IT.

Foreign
Not Paradise Now, the Palestinian shoe-in, but The Promise, instead.

Worst Potential Moment Of Oscar Night?
The threat of music from Rent.