First GOP casualty?

In what may be a fitting bookend, it appears likely that Rep. John Hostettler, a socially conservative Republican who won his southern Indiana House seat in the GOP revolution of 1994, will soon become the first official GOP casualty of the ’06 cycle. Hostettler has been a top Democrat target every two years since his initial election and always he’s survived (even though he’s routinely been outspent) by relying on a zealous base of Christian conservative support. Is his looming defeat a sign that the chatter about the the GOP base being asleep has materialized? Or maybe that base has been overwhelmed by much higher than anticipated turnout among the general voting population?