It’s about 9 hours before the polls close on a special election for the Assembly seat on Manhattan’s East side.

The race pits a local Democratic activist, Micah Kellner, against an investment banker with prosecutorial experience, Republican Greg Camp. Democrats hold every seat from City Council to Congress on the East Side, and have a voter registration advantage there. But it’s a special election, and Camp is unusually qualified compared to some of the other sacrificial lambs local Republicans have tossed up in other races.

It’s difficult (bordering on pointless) to try to get accurate predictions for such a small and unusual election, but I’ve prevailed upon some of our more informed readers to give it a try:

60 Kellner
40 Camp
— a political consultant who has worked for both Democrats and Republicans

58 Kellner
42 Camp
— a political insider with Democratic leanings, but no affiliation with either candidate

57 Kellner
43 Camp,
–a Democratic City Council aide not affiliated with either candidate

Your predictions, stories about voting in the district today or other observations are very welcome.

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