Doug Schoen, the noted pollster who crunched numbers for Bill Clinton’s re-election campaign in the mid 1990′s, and for Michael Bloomberg’s 2001 mayoral race, said last night that he doesn’t think Bloomberg will run for president.
Schoen, speaking at a forum about presidential polling at Baruch College, was answering a question from an audience member who wanted to know which of the two major parties would be most affected by a Bloomberg presidential run.
“Let me just say at the outset I don’t think he is going to run,” Schoen said. “Largely Phil’s question is an academic one. It was very interesting to me that at this point, he appears to be hurting the Republicans at least as much if not more than the Democrats. I think the reason for that has more to do with disaffected Republicans who probably don’t want to vote, at this point, for Hillary Clinton–who hear, you know, Independent Michael Bloomberg, don’t know much about who Michael Bloomberg is, and are saying, ‘You know what, we don’t want to vote Republican, and this is an alternative.”
“So,“ Schoen concluded, “that would be my answer to your, what I think is hypothetical, question.”
A few minutes after that question, Schoen put his two Blackberries into his pocket, leaned to his right and was heard telling the moderator, pollster Mickey Blum, that he had to leave. (“You said 7:30.”)
The other panelists included Kellyanne Conway, a pollster now working with Fred Thompson, and Mickey Carroll of Quinnipiac. Another scheduled panelist did not arrive.
Afterwards, Blum said Schoen’s characterization of Bloomberg’s presidential run stems from Bloomberg’s public denials. “He may not know himself” Blum told me.
“It was a diplomatic and gentlemanly response from someone who is both,” Conway said.
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