Anthony Weiner and the Carrion Effect

A reader pointed out that Adolfo Carrion’s absence from the mayor’s race alters the landscape for Anthony Weiner’s candidacy.

In the Democratic primary, a candidate must get 40 percent of the vote to win the nomination and prevent a run-off. Without Carrion in the race, it’s more likely that Bill Thompson, the only black candidate, will earn at least that number.

Assuming that if Carrion had run, Thompson and Carrion would have split support from the black and Latino communities, Weiner then would have been in a run-off with one of them, and earned a second chance at capturing the nomination.

This scenario is not unlike 2005 primary, in which the presence of Virginia Fields, who got 16 percent of the vote (75,826 votes), almost led to a run-off between Weiner and Fernando Ferrer. Many of her votes would probably have gone to Ferrer (who earned 192,262).

Another factor that will affect Weiner’s candidacy is that two candidates likely to siphon votes from him, Marty Markowitz, and Betsy Gotbaum, are both making more noise about their mayoral bids.

The last run-off for a Democratic mayoral primary, between Ferrer and Mark Green, divided the party largely along racial lines.

Also, here’s a counter-intuitive take on the situation from Isac Weinberger, who says today’s announcement is good for Anthony Weiner.

“The Latino community will vote for Anthony Weiner because he stepped aside for Fernando Ferrer,” Isac said.

 

UPDATE: I inadvertently neglected to mention one of the leading prospective mayoral candidates, Christine Quinn. Although her candidacy wouldn’t change the racial equation of Thompson’s appeal to the minority vote, she’d likely be the only woman and openly gay candidate in the race, making her credible contender to bring about a runoff scenario.