N.Y. State Poll: Giuliani Down 11, Huckabee Up 11

mikehuckabeerudygiuliani 3 N.Y. State Poll: Giuliani Down 11, Huckabee Up 11 Rudy Giuliani’s lead in the New York State Republican primary has shrunk from 45 percent to 34 percent in two months, according to a Quinnipiac poll released today. Mike Huckabee, now in second place, has surged from one percent, in the last poll, to 12 percent.

Hillary Clinton still holds a commanding lead among Democrats with 55 percent of the vote, while Barack Obama is in second place with 17 percent.

In a head-to-head match-up Clinton beats Giuliani 53 percent to 32 percent, a greater margin than the October 17 poll, which showed 50-36.

The poll also found that even if they agree with a candidate on all other issues, 28 percent of New York state voters would vote against a candidate with whom they disagreed on immigration reform. Overall, New Yorkers are more "compassionate" on immigration than other states Quinnipiac has surveyed recently.

 

Full poll results:

FOR RELEASE: DECEMBER 17, 2007

GIULIANI’S REPUBLICAN LEAD SHRINKS AS HUCKABEE SURGES
QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS;
VOTERS SAY CANDIDATES’ PRIVATE LIVES ARE OFF LIMITS

Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani’s lead in the New York State Republican presidential primary is shrinking as he gets 34 percent to former Arizona Gov. Mike Huckabee’s 12 percent, with 11 percent for Arizona Sen. John McCain, 7 percent for former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson and 5 percent each for Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Texas Congressman Ron Paul, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This is down from a 45 – 12 percent Giuliani lead over Thompson in an October 17 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, when Huckabee had 1 percent.

In the Democratic primary, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Illinois Sen. Barack Obama 55 – 17 percent, with 7 percent for former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards. This compares to a 49 – 12 percent Clinton lead October 17.

In a head-to-head presidential matchup, Sen. Clinton tops Mayor Giuliani 53 – 32 percent, compared to 50 – 36 percent October 17.
“Mayor Giuliani is on top of the Republican field, but losing some steam. In the ever-changing race for second place in the GOP pack, Gov. Mike Huckabee is the lead dog, by a nose, this week,” said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
“The former New York City mayor gets a split 41 – 40 percent favorability rating in the state, and a negative 38 – 51 percent score in the city.”
“Sen. Clinton ends this 2007 pre-campaign year in a very good place in New York, over 50 percent in both the Democratic primary race and the general election face-off with Giuliani.”

Clinton gets a 53 – 34 percent favorability rating from New York State voters, including 59 – 28 percent in New York City.
By a 68 – 25 percent margin, New York State voters say the personal lives of Clinton and Giuliani should not be part of the campaign debate. Opinions are consistent among men and women and all parties.

Immigration

Immigration reform should focus on stricter enforcement of laws against illegal immigration, 55 percent of voters say, while 34 percent say the focus should be on integrating immigrants into American society.
Even if they agree with a presidential candidate on all other issues, 28 percent of New York State voters say they would vote against a candidate who disagrees with them on immigration reform.
Legal immigrants do more to help the country, voters say 82 – 11 percent, while illegal immigrants do more to hurt the country, voters say 50 – 35 percent.
Illegal immigrants take jobs no one wants, 64 percent of voters say, and 24 percent say they take away jobs from Americans who need them.
New York State voters say 70 – 24 percent that the children of illegal immigrants should be allowed to attend public schools.
“It’s more important to enforce the law against illegal immigrants than to help them become legal, New Yorkers say. Suburban voters are most in favor of enforcement,” Carroll said.
“But New Yorkers are more compassionate than voters in other states Quinnipiac University has surveyed on this issue: 70 percent say the children of illegal immigrants should be allowed to allowed to attend public schools.”

From December 4 – 10, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,083 New York State voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent. The survey includes 335 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5.4 percent, and 461 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research.
For more data — http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x271.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were
being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd,
John Edwards, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama and Bill Richardson, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS
Tot Men Wom

Biden 2% 3% 1%
Clinton 55 49 58
Dodd – – -
Edwards 7 8 7
Gravel – – -
Kucinich 2 3 1
Obama 17 20 15
Richardson 2 3 1
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1
WLDN’T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1
DK/NA 13 10 14

TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama and Bill Richardson, for whom would you vote? na = not asked

REGISTERED DEMOCRATS……………………..
Dec 17 Oct 17 Oct 3 Jun 20 Apr 5 Feb 14
2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007

Biden 2 2 3 1 1 1
Clinton 55 49 47 44 44 47
Dodd – 1 – – – 1
Edwards 7 11 7 6 9 7
Gravel – – – – – na
Kucinich 2 2 2 1 1 1
Obama 17 12 15 14 14 16
Richardson 2 2 1 3 1 1
Clark na na na na – 1
Gore na na 9 18 14 11
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 2 1 2
WLDN’T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 2 2 2 1
DK/NA 13 16 12 10 13 12

2. (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were
being held today, and the candidates were Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan
Hunter, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo and Fred Thompson, for
whom would you vote?
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
Tot Men Wom

Giuliani 34% 37% 31%
Huckabee 12 12 12
Hunter – – -
McCain 11 10 11
Paul 5 7 3
Romney 5 5 4
Tancredo 1 1 2
Thompson 7 10 4
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 2
WLDN’T VOTE(VOL) 5 4 6
DK/NA 18 11 24

TREND: (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President
were being held today, and the candidates were Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee,
Duncan Hunter, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo and Fred Thompson,
for whom would you vote? na = not asked

REGISTERED REPUBLICANS……………………
Dec 17 Oct 17 Oct 3 Jun 20 Apr 5 Feb 14
2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007

Giuliani 34 45 48 46 52 51
Huckabee 12 1 1 1 – 2
Hunter – – – – – 1
McCain 11 9 8 8 13 17
Paul 5 1 1 – – na
Romney 5 7 5 3 4 1
Tancredo 1 – 1 – – 1
Thompson, F. 7 12 8 14 3 na
Brownback na – 1 1 1 -
Gilmore na na na – – -
Gingrich na na 5 6 3 6
Hagel na na na na 1 1
Pataki na na na na 6 7
Thompson, T. na na na – – -
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 5 3 4 2 3
WLDN’T VOTE(VOL) 5 5 4 3 2 2
DK/NA 18 15 17 14 12 9

3. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates
were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom
would you vote?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Clinton 53% 8% 87% 43% 48% 57%
Giuliani 32 75 9 34 36 28
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 – 5 4 2
WLDN’T VOTE(VOL) 4 6 1 6 4 4
DK/NA 8 8 4 12 7 9

UpState….. UpState
Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Clinton 62% 46% 48% 64% 45%
Giuliani 28 37 36 24 36
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 5 4 4 2 4
WLDN’T VOTE(VOL) – 3 3 5 4
DK/NA 5 10 9 5 11

TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the
candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican,
for whom would you vote? * – Hillary Rodham Clinton and Rudolph Giuliani

Dec 17 Oct 17 Oct 3 Jun 20 Apr 5 Feb 14 Dec 8
2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2004*

Clinton 53 50 52 52 50 50 46
Giuliani 32 36 41 37 42 40 45
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 2 2 1 2 1
WLDN’T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 2 3 2 1 3
DK/NA 8 9 5 7 5 6 5
4. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about her?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Favorable 53% 17% 81% 45% 47% 58%
Unfavorable 34 74 9 38 41 29
Hvn’t hrd enough 9 4 8 14 10 9
REFUSED 3 4 1 2 2 4

UpState….. UpState
Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Favorable 61% 45% 47% 59% 54%
Unfavorable 27 40 38 28 39
Hvn’t hrd enough 12 12 12 9 6
REFUSED 1 3 3 4 1

TREND: Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you
heard enough about her?

Dec 17 Oct 3 Jun 20 Apr 5 Feb 14
2007 2007 2007 2007 2007

Favorable 53 58 59 58 59
Unfavorable 34 37 34 35 35
Hvn’t hrd enough 9 3 5 4 4
REFUSED 3 2 2 3 2

5. Is your opinion of Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Favorable 41% 69% 26% 43% 46% 36%
Unfavorable 40 18 54 38 39 41
Hvn’t hrd enough 16 10 18 16 12 19
REFUSED 3 3 2 3 2 4

UpState….. UpState
Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Favorable 31% 42% 40% 38% 46%
Unfavorable 35 32 32 51 39
Hvn’t hrd enough 27 23 24 9 12
REFUSED 6 4 4 2 3

TREND: Is your opinion of Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about him?
Dec 17 Oct 3 Jun 20 Apr 5 Feb 14
2007 2007 2007 2007 2007

Favorable 41 55 55 55 56
Unfavorable 40 38 36 35 30
Hvn’t hrd enough 16 5 7 8 11
REFUSED 3 2 3 2 3

9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job
as president?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Approve 22% 50% 10% 16% 25% 20%
Disapprove 73 42 85 80 72 74
DK/NA 5 8 5 4 3 6

UpState….. UpState
Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Approve 19% 23% 23% 21% 23%
Disapprove 81 72 73 72 74
DK/NA 1 5 4 7 4

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his
job as President? (* also 82% on 10/2/01 ** also 22% on 5/18/06)

Highest Lowest
Approve Approve
Dec 17 Jun 20 Apr 5 Feb 14 Dec 14 Nov 14 Dec 17
2007 2007 2007 2007 2006 2001 * 2007 **

Approve 22 24 26 24 26 82 22
Disapprove 73 71 72 72 71 15 73
DK/NA 5 5 3 4 3 3 5

11.(New York City registered voters only) Do you approve or disapprove of the way
Rudy Giuliani handled his job as Mayor of New York City?

NYC REGISTERED VOTERS
Tot Men Wom

Approve 57 61% 53%
Disapprove 38 36 41
DK/NA 5 3 6

12. In the presidential campaign this year a lot has been made of the personal
lives of the two New Yorkers, Senator Hillary Clinton and former Mayor Rudy
Giuliani, who are currently the leading contenders for the Democratic and
Republican nominations. Do you think the personal lives of Senator Clinton and
Mayor Giuliani involve legitimate issues that should be part of the campaign
debate, or should they be kept private and not made part of the debate?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Part of debate 25% 24% 25% 27% 27% 24%
Kept private 68 71 67 69 68 69
DK/NA 7 5 8 4 6 7

UpState….. UpState
Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Part of debate 36% 22% 24% 27% 23%
Kept private 60 72 70 65 71
DK/NA 5 6 6 8 7

18. Overall, do you think illegal immigrants do more to help the country or do
more to hurt the country?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Help 35% 22% 48% 29% 37% 34%
Hurt 50 68 37 56 52 49
DK/NA 14 10 15 14 11 17

UpState….. UpState
Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Help 27% 25% 26% 49% 31%
Hurt 62 61 61 36 55
DK/NA 11 14 14 15 15

19. Overall, do you think legal immigrants do more to help the country or do more
to hurt the country?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Help 82% 82% 85% 82% 84% 80%
Hurt 11 11 10 10 10 11
DK/NA 7 7 5 8 6 9

UpState….. UpState
Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Help 76% 80% 79% 85% 81%
Hurt 12 13 13 8 11
DK/NA 12 7 8 7 8

20. Do you think immigration reform should primarily move in the direction of
integrating illegal immigrants into American society or in the direction of
stricter enforcement of laws against illegal immigration?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Intg immigrants 34% 23% 44% 30% 35% 34%
Enforcement 55 73 46 56 56 54
DK/NA 11 4 10 15 9 12

UpState….. UpState
Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Intg immigrants 30% 30% 30% 41% 31%
Enforcement 60 62 62 45 60
DK/NA 10 8 9 14 9

21. If you agreed with a presidential candidate on other issues, but completely
disagreed on the issue of illegal immigration, do you think you could still vote
for that candidate or not?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Yes 60% 60% 68% 58% 58% 62%
No 28 28 23 30 32 26
DK/NA 12 12 9 12 11 12

UpState….. UpState
Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

YES 60% 62% 61% 61% 56%
NO 29 29 29 24 35
DK/NA 11 10 10 15 10

22. Do you think illegal immigrants mostly take jobs that nobody wants or do
they mostly take jobs away from Americans who need them?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

That nobody wants 64% 65% 67% 64% 62% 66%
Take jobs away 24 26 22 26 25 23
DK/NA 12 9 11 11 13 11

UpState….. UpState
Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

That nobody wants 58% 64% 63% 65% 65%
Take jobs away 37 25 27 20 24
DK/NA 4 11 10 15 11

23. Do you think the children of illegal immigrants should or should not be
allowed to attend public schools?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Should 70% 55% 84% 65% 62% 77%
Should not 24 36 13 30 32 17
DK/NA 6 9 4 5 6 6

UpState….. UpState
Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Should 74% 61% 63% 84% 62%
Should not 20 32 30 11 32
DK/NA 6 7 7 5 6