A Quinnipiac poll of swing state voters released today shows Hillary Clinton with commanding leads over Barack Obama in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. In the Republican field, Rudy Giuliani leads in all three states, but by a much smaller margin, while Mike Huckabee is gaining support.
Another interesting finding is that Clinton’s popularity in these states is due in part to her stance on immigration, which favors enforcement over integration. Apparently “25 percent of Florida voters say they would vote against a presidential candidate who disagreed on integration policy, even if they agreed on everything else.”
The full results:
CLINTON ENDS ‘07 IN A GOOD SPOT IN FLORIDA, OHIO, PENNSYLVANIA, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY SWING STATE POLL FINDS
FLORIDA: Clinton 53 – Obama 17; Giuliani 30 – Romney 12;
OHIO: Clinton 45 – Obama 19; Giuliani 29 – McCain 13;
PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 43 – Obama 15; Giuliani 27 – Huckabee, McCain 13
Despite Oprah Winfrey’s support for Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton has overwhelming leads, especially among women, in Democratic primaries in three critical swing states, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to Quinnipiac University’s Swing State Poll, three simultaneous surveys of voters in states that have been pivotal in presidential elections since 1964.
Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani leads the Republican pack in each state, but with a lackluster 30-percent support, while former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is gaining, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.
In each state, Clinton is seen as the best candidate in either party to handle the immigration issue. By substantial majorities, almost 4 – 1 in Ohio and Pennsylvania, voters favor immigration reform that emphasizes stricter enforcement of laws against illegal immigrants rather than integrating illegal immigrants into American society.
And 20 to 25 percent of voters in each state would vote against a presidential candidate who disagreed with them on immigration policy, even if they agreed on everything else.
“These Democratic primary numbers are a good indication that despite the tight three-way race in Iowa, the fight for the nomination is not very close and that Sen. Clinton’s lead remains very large and deep,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
“The Republican primary race remains as muddled as the Democratic side seems clear in these three big states. Mayor Giuliani carries double-digit leads in all three states, but Republicans overall say they are much more likely to change their minds.”
Quinnipiac University Poll/December 5, 2007–page 2
“The vast majority of voters think the primary focus of immigration reform is about stricter enforcement rather than integrating illegal immigrants into American society – although that is slightly less true among Democrats than voters overall,” Brown added.
“There are also a significant number of voters who say immigration could be a deal-breaker in their presidential vote.”
A look at the primaries shows:
- Florida: Clinton tops Obama 53 – 17 percent among all Democrats and 56 – 13 percent among women. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards gets 7 percent. Giuliani gets 30 percent of Republican votes, with 12 percent for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, 11 percent for Huckabee, 10 percent for former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson and 9 percent for Arizona Sen. John McCain.
- Ohio: Clinton leads Obama 45 – 19 among Democrats and 53 – 15 percent among women, with 13 percent for Edwards. Giuliani leads McCain 29 – 13 percent, with 10 percent for Huckabee and 7 percent each for Thompson and Romney.
- Pennsylvania: Clinton beats Obama 43 – 15 percent among Democrats, with 47 – 11 percent among women, while Edwards gets 9 percent. Giuliani gets 27 percent of Republicans, with
Huckabee and McCain at 13 percent each, and Romney and Thompson at 6 percent each. General election matchups in these swing states show:
- Florida: Clinton tops Giuliani 48 – 41 percent; Giuliani led 46 – 43 percent October 25;
- Ohio: Clinton leads Giuliani 45 – 41 percent compared to 44 percent for Clinton and 43 percent for Giuliani November 14;
- Pennsylvania: Clinton and Giuliani are tied 44 – 44 percent, compared to a 45 – 43 percent
Clinton lead November 8.
“Sen. John McCain and Gov. Mike Huckabee are doing slightly better and Sen. Fred Thompson worse in terms of the GOP primaries,” Brown added.
“The matchups between Sen. Clinton and Mayor Giuliani have gone back and forth, and the year closes with Clinton holding a small to medium lead in two of the big three and tied in the third. Sen. McCain also has improved his numbers when matched against Sen. Clinton, which reflects the general sense nationally that those who had predicted his political demise may have been speaking too soon.”
Looking at other possible 2008 presidential matchups in Florida, the Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll finds:
- Clinton tops McCain 47 – 40 percent, Thompson 52 – 36 percent, Romney 50 – 36 pe
rcent and Huckabee 50 – 35 percent;
- Giuliani bests Obama 45 – 37 percent and Edwards 43 – 39 percent.
Quinnipiac University Poll/ December 5 – page 3
By a 52 – 41 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton. Favorability ratings for other contenders are:
- 48 – 34 percent for Giuliani;
- 44 – 28 percent for McCain;
- 43 – 31 percent for Obama;
- 42 – 35 percent for Edwards;
- Negative 25 – 28 percent for Thompson;
- 29 – 27 percent for Romney;
- 56 percent don’t know enough about Huckabee to form an opinion.
Clinton would do the best job handling immigration, 18 percent of Florida voters say, while 10 percent name Giuliani and 7 percent cite Obama. No other candidate scores above 6 percent.
By a 66 – 24 percent margin, Florida voters favor enforcement over integration in immigration reform. And 25 percent of Florida voters say they would vote against a presidential candidate who disagreed on integration policy, even if they agreed on everything else.
“Sen. Clinton is over 50 percent in the Democratic primary, an enviable place to be with less than two months before the voting,” Brown said.
In other possible 2008 presidential matchups in Ohio:
- Clinton edges McCain 44 – 42 percent and beats Thompson 47 –38 percent, Romney 47 – 37 percent and Huckabee 45 – 38 percent.
- Edwards bests Giuliani 45 – 38 percent and Obama tops Giuliani 42 – 38 percent.
Clinton gets a split 46 – 45 percent favorability rating. Other favorability ratings are:
- 43 – 34 percent for Giuliani;
- 44 – 27 percent for McCain;
- 44 – 28 percent for Obama;
- 48 – 29 percent for Edwards;
- 23 – 22 percent for Thompson;
- 24 – 23 percent for Romney;
- 63 percent haven’t heard enough about Huckabee to form an opinion.
Clinton would do the best job on immigration, 18 percent of Ohio voters say, with 9 percent each for Giuliani and Obama and 8 percent who name McCain. Ohio voters prefer strict enforcement over integration of illegal immigrants 71 – 20 percent and 22 percent say they would vote against a candidate who disagrees with them only on the immigration issue.
“Ohio is a good example that the immigration issue plays far from the border and how important it could be. Among independents there, 27 percent say that they would not vote for a candidate they generally agreed with if they completely disagreed with the candidate on immigration,” Brown said.
Quinnipiac University Poll/ December 5 – page 4
In other possible 2008 presidential matchups in Pennsylvania:
- Clinton ties McCain 43 – 43 percent and beats Thompson 49 – 37 percent, Romney 49 – 37 percent and Huckabee 48 – 37 percent;
- Giuliani ties Obama 41 – 41 percent and beats Edwards 44 – 40 percent.
Clinton gets a 49 – 43 percent favorability rating from Pennsylvania voters. Favorability ratings for other contenders are:
- 49 – 33 percent for Giuliani;
- 45 – 27 percent for McCain;
- 47 – 23 percent for Obama;
- 46 – 28 percent for Edwards;
- 24 – 23 percent for Thompson;
- 23 – 23 percent for Romney;
- 63 percent don’t know enough about Huckabee to form an opinion.
Clinton is the best candidate on the immigration issue, 16 percent of Pennsylvania voters say, while 12 percent name Giuliani, 7 percent name Obama and 6 percent name McCain.
Pennsylvania voters favor enforcement over integration of illegal immigrants 72 – 19 percent and 20 percent say they will not vote for a candidate who disagrees with them on immigration alone.
“Pennsylvania is still Clinton and Giuliani country. But watch out if Giuliani falters, because Sen. McCain has topped Clinton in four of the last six general election match ups there,” said Clay Richards, Assistant Director of the Quinnipiac University polling institute. “Gov. Huckabee has come from nowhere to 14 points to tie McCain, but 14 percent doesn’t win a nomination, just puts him on the platform to move up if Rudy falls.
“On immigration, the voters have no clear idea who the best candidate is, but want one who favors stricter enforcement.”
mber 26 – December 3, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
- 1,124 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent, including 440 Republicans, with a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percent, and 424 Democrats, with a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percent;
- 1,178 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent, including 418 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percent, and 436 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percent;
- 1,092 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent, including 483 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percent and 462 Democrats, with a margin of error of
+/- 4.6 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research.
For more data — http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x271.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.