CNN/WMUR Poll: McCain and Obama Lead, Many Still Undecided

The newest CNN/WMUR poll from New Hampshire shows similar results to others that have come in today.

Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 39-30 percent and John McCain leads Mitt Romney 31-26.

But the poll also shows that only 45 percent of Republican voters and 53 percent of Democratic voters have definitely decided on a candidate. Particularly since independents weren’t a part of the survey, that leaves a lot of voters who aren’t accounted for in the poll, and plenty who are still making up their minds.

Here’s the release:

Conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center Interviews with 1091 likely New Hampshire primary voters in New Hampshire conducted by telephone on January 5-6, 2008.

The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. A total of 492 who say they plan to vote in the Republican presidential primary and 599 who say they plan to vote in the Democratic presidential primary were interviewed.

The margin of sampling error for both groups is plus or minus 4 percentage points. Results in this document represent interviews conducted all day on January 5 and all day on January 6.

Results released on Sunday were based on interviews conducted on all day on January 5 and on January 6 from noon to 3 pm.

1. As you know, the New Hampshire presidential primary election is being held next Tuesday. How interested would you say you are in the primary election — extremely interested, very interested, somewhat interested, or not very interested?

Jan 5-6 Jan. 4-5 Dec. 27-30 Dec. 13-17

2008 2007 2007

Extremely interested

Dem. Primary Voters 53% 52% 45% 44%

GOP Primary Voters 42% 43% 41% 34%

Very interested

Dem. Primary Voters 35% 38% 42% 41%

GOP Primary Voters 47% 49% 45% 46%

Somewhat interested

Dem. Primary Voters 11% 10% 12% 12%

GOP Primary Voters 10% 8% 12% 18%

Not very interested

Dem. Primary Voters 1% 0% 1% 3%

GOP Primary Voters 1% 1% 2% 2%

Dec. 6-10 Nov. Sept. March/April Feb.

2007 2007 2007 2007 2007

Extremely interested

Dem. Primary Voters 41% 38% 41% 39% 45%

GOP Primary Voters 35% 36% 32% 27% 36%

Very interested

Dem. Primary Voters 46% 48% 41% 39% 32%

GOP Primary Voters 48% 43% 47% 48% 36%

Somewhat interested

Dem. Primary Voters 13% 12% 16% 17% 18%

ass=”MsoNormal”> GOP Primary Voters 15% 18% 17% 18% 24%

Not very interested

Dem. Primary Voters 2% 1% 2% 5% 4%

GOP Primary Voters 3% 3% 4% 7% 4%

2. (REGISTERED INDEPENDENTS ONLY) Which Presidential primary election do you think you will vote in, in 2008 — the Republican Primary or the Democratic Primary? (IF UNSURE:) As of RIGHT NOW, which primary do you think you will vote in?

Jan 5-6 Jan. 4-5 Dec. 27-30 Dec. 13-17 Dec. 6-10

2008 2008 2007 2007 2007

Republican primary 40% 44% 37% 40% 46%

Democratic primary 60% 56% 63% 60% 54%

Nov. Sept. July March/April Feb.

2007 2007 2007 2007 2007

Republican primary 35% 35% 40% 28% 33%

Democratic primary 65% 65% 60% 72% 67%


3. (REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY:) Have you definitely decided who you will vote for in the New Hampshire primary, are you leaning toward someone, or do have you considered some candidates but are still trying to decide?

Jan 5-6 Jan. 4-5 Dec. 27-30 Dec. 13-17 Dec. 6-10

2008 2008 2007 2007 2007

Definitely decided 45% 44% 33% 22% 15%

Leaning toward someone 28% 29% 29% 33% 30%

Still trying to decide 27% 28% 38% 45% 55%

November September July

2007 2007 2007

Definitely decided 14% 13% 7%

Leaning toward someone 29% 21% 22%

Still trying to decide 56% 66% 71%

4. (REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY:) I’m going to read you the names of the candidates who are either running or considering running for the Republican nomination. If the Republican primary for president were held today, which of the following would you support for the Republican nomination — Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson or someone else? (RANDOM ORDER)

Jan 5-6 Jan. 4-5 Dec. 27-30 Dec. 13-17 Dec. 6-10

2008 2008 2007 2007 2007

McCain 31% 33% 29% 22% 19%

Romney 26% 27% 29% 34% 32%

Huckabee 13% 11% 10% 10% 9%

Giuliani 10% 14% 12% 16% 19%

Paul 10% 9% 7% 5% 7%

Hunter 2% 1% 2% 1% 0

Thompson 1% 1% 2% 1% 1%

Someone else 2% 2% 1% 1% 1%

No opinion 4% 4% 8% 8% 12%

November September July June

2007 2007 2007 2007

McCain 18% 18% 12% 20%

Romney 33% 25% 34% 29%

Huckabee 5% 3% 2% 2%

Giuliani 16% 24% 20% 22%

Paul 8% 4% 2% 3%

Hunter * 1% * 1%

Thompson 4% 13% 13% 12%

Someone else 1% 1% 3% 2%

No opinion 14% 9% 13% 8%

(TREND WITH NEWT GINGRICH INCLUDED IN THE QUESTION)

September July June March/April February

2007 2007 2007 2007 2007

Romney
23% 33% 28% 17% 13%

Giuliani 22% 18% 20% 29% 27%

McCain 17% 12% 20% 29% 28%

Thompson 12% 13% 11% 3%

Gingrich 7% 4% 4% 2% 9%

Paul 4% 2% 3% 1% 1%

Huckabee 2% 2% 2% 1% 1%

Hunter 1% * 0 0 0

Tancredo 1% * * 1% 3%

Someone else 1% 3% 1% 1% 2%

No opinion 9% 12% 8% 14% 12%


5. (DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY:) Have you definitely decided who you will vote for in the New Hampshire primary, are you leaning toward someone, or do have you considered some candidates but are still trying to decide?

Jan 5-6 Jan. 4-5 Dec. 27-30 Dec. 13-17

2008 2008 2007 2007

Definitely decided 53% 52% 41% 31%

Leaning toward someone 26% 26% 27% 31%

Still trying to decide 21% 23% 32% 38%

Dec. 6-10 November September July

2007 2007 2007 2007

Definitely decided 24% 24% 17% 10%

Leaning toward someone 32% 29% 28% 26%

Still trying to decide 43% 47% 55% 64%


12.
(DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY:) I’m going to read you the names of the candidates who are either running or considering running for the Democratic nomination. If the Democratic primary for president were held today, which of the following would you support for the Democratic nomination — Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama, Bill Richardson or someone else? (RANDOM ORDER)

Jan 5-6 Jan. 4-5 Dec. 27-30 Dec. 13-17 Dec. 6-10

2008 2008 2007 2007 2007

Obama 39% 33% 30% 26% 30%

Clinton 30% 33% 34% 38% 31%

Edwards 16% 20% 17% 14% 16%

Richardson 7% 4% 5% 8% 7%

Kucinich 1% 2% 2% 2% 3%

Gravel * 0 0 0 *

Someone else 1% 1% * 1% *

No opinion 6% 7% 8% 8% 10%

November September July June

2007 2007 2007 2007

Obama 22% 20% 27% 24%

Clinton 36% 43% 36% 39%

Edwards 13% 12% 9% 14%

Richardson 12% 6% 11% 11%

Kucinich 3% 3% 3% 2%

Gravel 0 0 * *

Someone else 2% 1% 0 3%

No opinion 11% 11% 9% 2%

(TREND WITH AL GORE INCLUDED IN THE QUESTION)

September July June March/April February

2007 2007 2007 2007 2007

Clinton 41% 33% 36% 27% 35%

Edwards 11% 8% 12% 21% 16%

Gore 7% 8% 12% 11% 8%

Richardson 6% 10% 10% 4% 1%

Biden 3% 3% 4% 2% 3%

Kucinich 3% 3% 1% 1% 1%

Dodd 1% * * 1% *

Gravel 0 * * * 0

Someone else * 0 2% * 0

No opinion 9% 9% 1% 12% 14%