John McCain is polling higher than Rudy Giuliani among New York Republicans, 34-23, according to a new Marist poll that seems to corroborate this morning’s Siena poll.
This survey also finds that Giuliani’s support is strongest in and around New York City, and with voters of lower income and lower education.
A majority of the Republicans polled don’t feel strongly about the candidate of their choice.
Electability may be a factor in McCain’s surging popularity—the poll finds 49 percent of New York State Republicans think McCain is the candidate most likely to defeat a Democrat in the general election, while only 15 percent think Giuliani can do the same.
SENATOR JOHN MCCAIN LEADS AMONG REPUBLICANS IN NEW YORK STATE:
John McCain outpaces the Republican field of presidential candidates including former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani among New York’s registered Republicans. Despite Giuliani’s hopes for a strong showing in New York, right now, 34% of registered Republicans including those leaning to a candidate support McCain compared with 23% for Giuliani. Among Republicans likely to vote in the February 5th primary, McCain maintains his support of 34%, but Giuliani is tied for second with former Governor Mitt Romney at 19%. Former Governor Mike Huckabee receives 15% among Republicans likely to vote.
THE CANDIDATES’ SUPPORTERS:
John McCain runs strongest against his opponents upstate where the lion’s share of the Republican vote will come on primary day. Giuliani competes better in the suburbs surrounding New York City and among the handful of Republican voters who reside in New York City. McCain does well among Republicans with higher income and higher education.
WHEN FACTORING IN VOTERS’ INTENSITY OF CANDIDATE
SUPPORT, MCCAIN STILL NEEDS TO CLOSE THE SALE:
This is a contest that is still in flux. Many Republican voters are not particularly enthusiastic about their choice. Among Republicans who are currently supporting a candidate, only 41% say they strongly support their choice, and 30% say they may change their mind by primary day. 35% of John McCain’s supporters are firmly committed to him. This compares with 42% of Mitt Romney’s voters and 51% of Rudy Giuliani’s backers.
THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY ELECTORATE
THE VOTERS’ AGENDA:
Three in ten Republicans are looking for a strong leader in their presidential nominee. Although John McCain is ahead of the other presidential contenders among this group of voters, 22% of Republicans who see this as the most important quality in the next president are still undecided about whom to support in the primary. 21% of Republicans want someone who is close to them on the issues. 20% would like someone who can bring about change and another one-fifth of the Republican electorate wants a candidate who shares their values.
THE VOTERS’ PRIORITIES:
The economy, the war in Iraq, and security from terrorism top the list of concerns on the minds of New York Republican voters. 24% of Republicans say the economy is the most important issue when deciding their vote for president, 18% mention the war in Iraq, and 16% cite security against terrorism.
46% of registered Republicans in New York think John McCain is the Republican most likely to beat the Democrat in November. 19% of Republicans in the state have this view of Mitt Romney, and only 15% think Rudy Giuliani is most electable.
PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS AND RELIGION:
Many New York Republicans do not think it matters that a candidate shares a voters’ religious beliefs. In fact, 41% says it doesn’t matter at all. In contrast, 71% of Republicans who support Mike Huckabee think the candidate they support should share their religious beliefs at least somewhat.
DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY 2008
NEW YORK SENATOR HILLARY CLINTON LEADS
THE DEMOCRATIC FIELD OF CANDIDATES IN THE STATE:
Hillary Clinton receives the support of 48% of Democratic voters likely to vote in New York’s Democratic Presidential Primary on February 5th including those currently leaning towards a candidate. She is followed by Senator Barack Obama with 32% and former Senator John Edwards with 9%. Dennis Kucinich receives 3%, and 7% of likely Democratic voters are undecided.
WHO’S SUPPORTING WHOM?
The New York State Democratic Primary is most competitive in New York City where about half of the state’s Democratic voters reside. Clinton receives support from 43% of likely Democratic voters in New York City compared with 39% for Obama. Clinton outdistances Obama upstate 59% to 22%, and she has an 18 percentage point lead in the suburbs which surround New York City. Barack Obama leads among African Americans likely to vote on primary day. African American voters historically comprise between one-fifth and one-quarter of the state’s Democratic primary vote. He is very competitive among younger Democrats. He receives 47% among likely Democrats who are under 45 years of age compared with 43% for Clinton. Among Democrats likely to vote who are 45 years of age or older, Clinton leads Obama 50% to 27%.
INTENSITY OF SUPPORT:
Overall, 68% of likely Democratic voters strongly support a candidate for their party’s nomination for president. 79% of likely Democrats who back Hillary Clinton say they are strongly committed to her. This compares with 58% of Barack Obama’s supporters who are firmly committed to him.
THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY ELECTORATE
THE VOTERS’ AGENDA:
The number one quality Democratic primary voters in New York are looking for in a presidential candidate is someone who can bring about change. 27% of likely Democratic voters want a presidential candidate who is an agent of change followed closely by 24% who are looking for a candidate who is closer to them on the issues. 19% want a candidate who is a strong leader, 13% want someone who shares their values or has experience, and 4% are looking for a candidate that has the best chance of being elected in November.
THE VOTERS’ PRIORITIES:
The economy is the number one issue on the minds of likely Democratic primary voters in New York. 37% of likely Democratic voters are most concerned about the economy followed by 20% who cite the war in Iraq , and 19% who mention health care as the most important issue.
A majority of likely Democratic primary voters in New York think Hillary Clinton has the best chance of beating the Republican candidate for president in November. 59% think Clinton is the most electable Democratic presidential candidate compared with 24% who believe Obama is.
NATURE OF THE SAMPLE: 1,467 NEW YORK STATE REGISTERED VOTERS
This survey of 1,467 New York State registered voters was conducted January 15th through January 17th, 2008. Registered voters were interviewed by telephone in proportion to the voter registration in each county in New York State and adjusted for turnout in statewide elections. The margin of error is +/-3%. There are 679 registered Democrats including 426 Democrats likely to vote in the February 5th primary. The results for these sub-samples are statistically significant at +/-4% and +/-5%, respectively. There are 401 registered Republicans including 175 likely Republican primary voters. The results for these sub-samples are statistically significant at +/-5% and +/-7.5%, respectively. The error margin increases for cross-tabulations.