Howard Fineman, Market Manipulator

bidenbayh Howard Fineman, Market Manipulator

For most of the summer, Biden contracts were trading at around 10 on the Intrade political market, while Evan Bayh contracts traded much higher – peaking at 40 about 10 days ago. But look at what’s happened in just the last day, as the media has begun portraying Biden as the most likely selection.

Other notable values on the Democratic V.P. market: Tim Kaine is now trading at 15.4, which is actually up slightly from yesterday, and Kathleen Sebelius is at 14.8 – almost a five-point jump for her from yesterday. Hillary Clinton is at 9.3, unchanged from yesterday. But maybe we shouldn’t read too much into this: Wesley Clark is at an absurdly overvalued 13.8.

On the Republican side, Mitt Romney is top at 31.1, followed closely by Tim Pawlnety at 29.9.