Obama Bounce Starting to Show Up

Maybe the media outlets that have been pushing the Obama’s-not-getting-a-bounce theme jumped the gun. The latest Gallup daily tracking poll – the result of interviews conducted between Monday and Wednesday nights this week – finds Obama pulling ahead by six points, 48 percent to John McCain’s 42 percent. That’s a clear jump for Obama from earlier this week, when Gallup showed John McCain actually edging into the lead by a point.


This is hardly surprising. Convention bounces don’t usually appear until a few days into the convention, or even just after the nominee’s acceptance speech – the idea that polls released earlier this week said anything about whether this convention had been helpful to Obama was rather silly to begin with. Moreover, the nominee’s acceptance speech is generally the most significant source of a convention bump, so – at least in theory – Obama has an opportunity tonight to expand the six-point edge into double digits, which would make the convention a clear success.


That said, bounces often don’t endure – and that may be especially true this year, with the G.O.P. stealing the spotlight all next week (and with McCain trying to eat into Obama’s post-convention coverage with his own long-awaited VP roll-out). Just remember: Even Walter Mondale and Bob Dole climbed into statistical ties after their conventions, a short-lived high note in each man’s futile campaign.