ALBANY—The latest independent poll on Tuesday’s special congressional election finds Democrat Scott Murphy has a four-point lead on Assembly Minority leader Jim Tedisco, the Republican candidate. 
The margin of error is 3.2 percent, so Murphy’s lead is barely statistically significant, but this is the high point of a stunning rise for Murphy, who was largely unknown in the district before he was named as the Democratic candidate in February. In the early stages of the race, it was widely assumed that Tedisco would easily win this Republican-heavy district—in which he’s been an elected official since 1982.
(For example, of the 917 likely voters surveyed by the Siena Research Institute, 45 percent said they expect Tedisco to win, while 35 percent expect Murphy to win.

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