Suozzi’s Calculations

ALBANY—In a video promising a "property tax revolution," Tom Suozzi's announced that he was running for a third term as Nassau County executive was not devoid of a recognition that he's already thinking about the possibility of a statewide bid.

"We need a property tax revolution, and I need a team of people," he said. "Here in Nassau County, that we hope will spread throughout Long Island, and throughout New York State."

His 2010 ambitions are the subject of chatter, certainly. But this is 2009, several operatives note: running for a third term doesn't mean anything, it just continues to give him a platform.

One Democratic source, however, laid out an interesting scenario:

If County Legislator Roger Corbin, who was indicted on charges of tax evasion, were to be forced from office after the end of this month, when a special election to replace him can't be called, then the body would be deadlocked 9-9. The cloud of impropriety might aid Republicans in their efforts to retake the chamber.

If that happened in the coming elections, even if Suozzi won, he would be faced with a hostile legislature doing its best to bloody him before a possible statewide run. In addition, were he to resign, his replacement would be appointed by….the legislature.

If that body were controlled by Republicans, it would make his next step an awkward one.