Run-Off Predictions: A Big Night for the W.F.P.

The polls for the run-offs are now closed.

Earlier, a few readers offered their predictions. Most expect Bill de Blasio and John Liu to win, on an expected turnout of fewer than 200,000, with Working Families Party organizational support overwhelming endorsements and earned-media buzz (such as it is).

As Ben Smith noted, race and identity played an unmistakable role both races. De Blasio’s ads often highlighted the racial diversity that exists within his own home, and Liu, who stands to become the first Asian-American citywide elected official, put together a black, Latino and Asian coalition of supporters.

The only question, for our prognosticators, seemed to be how large their margin of victory will be when the final numbers are in.

Public Advocate

David Vermillion: de Blasio-60%

Aaron Naparstek: de Blasio-58%

Michael Oliva: de Blasio-57%

Jerry Skurnik: de Blasio-57%

Gatemouth: de Blasio-56%

Alex Zablocki: Green-52%

 

Comptroller

Alex Zablocki: Liu-58%

David Vermillion: Liu-58%

Aaron Naparstek: Liu 56%

Gatemouth: Liu-55%

Jerry Skurnik: Liu-52%

Michael Oliva: Liu-52%

 

Turnout

Lew Fidler: 225,000

Alex Zablocki: 262,000

Stu Loeser: 200,000

David Vermillion: 165,000

Michael Oliva: 140,000

Jerry Skurnik: 130,000

Gatemouth: half of the turnout in the primary.

Dick Dadey- 6%