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	<title>Observer &#187; Run-Off Predictions: A Big Night for the W.F.P.</title>
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		<title>Observer &#187; Run-Off Predictions: A Big Night for the W.F.P.</title>
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		<title>Run-Off Predictions: A Big Night for the W.F.P.</title>

		<comments>http://observer.com/2009/09/runoff-predictions-a-big-night-for-the-wfp/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 29 Sep 2009 21:45:17 -0400</pubDate>
					<link>http://observer.com/2009/09/runoff-predictions-a-big-night-for-the-wfp/</link>
			<dc:creator>Azi Paybarah</dc:creator>
				
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		<description><![CDATA[<p>The polls for the run-offs are now closed.</p>
<p>Earlier, a few readers offered their predictions. Most expect Bill de Blasio and John Liu to win, on an expected turnout of fewer than 200,000, with Working Families Party organizational support overwhelming endorsements and earned-media buzz (such as it is).</p>
<p><a href="http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0909/Race_politics_after_Obama.html?showall">As Ben Smith noted</a>, race and identity played an unmistakable role both races. De Blasio’s ads often <a href="http://www.politickerny.com/5011/bill-de-blasio-and-family-air">highlighted</a> the racial diversity that exists within his own home, and Liu, who stands to become the first Asian-American citywide elected official, put together a black, Latino and Asian <a href="http://www.liunewyork.com/news/candidate-controller-challenges-old-ethnic-alliances">coalition</a> of supporters.</p>
<p>  The only question, for our prognosticators, seemed to be how large their margin of victory will be when the final numbers are in.</p>
<p>  <u><strong>Public Advocate</strong></u></p>
<p> David Vermillion: de Blasio-60%</p>
<p> Aaron Naparstek: de Blasio-58%</p>
<p> Michael Oliva: de Blasio-57%</p>
<p> Jerry Skurnik: de Blasio-57%</p>
<p> Gatemouth: de Blasio-56%</p>
<p>  Alex Zablocki: Green-52%</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>  <u><strong>Comptroller</strong></u></p>
<p> Alex Zablocki: Liu-58%</p>
<p> David Vermillion: Liu-58%</p>
<p> Aaron Naparstek: Liu 56%</p>
<p> Gatemouth: Liu-55%</p>
<p> Jerry Skurnik: Liu-52%</p>
<p> Michael Oliva: Liu-52%</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>  <u><strong>Turnout</strong></u></p>
<p> Lew Fidler: 225,000</p>
<p> Alex Zablocki: 262,000</p>
<p> Stu Loeser: 200,000</p>
<p> David Vermillion: 165,000</p>
<p> Michael Oliva: 140,000</p>
<p> Jerry Skurnik: 130,000</p>
<p>  Gatemouth: half of the turnout in the primary.</p>
<p>  Dick Dadey- 6%</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The polls for the run-offs are now closed.</p>
<p>Earlier, a few readers offered their predictions. Most expect Bill de Blasio and John Liu to win, on an expected turnout of fewer than 200,000, with Working Families Party organizational support overwhelming endorsements and earned-media buzz (such as it is).</p>
<p><a href="http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0909/Race_politics_after_Obama.html?showall">As Ben Smith noted</a>, race and identity played an unmistakable role both races. De Blasio’s ads often <a href="http://www.politickerny.com/5011/bill-de-blasio-and-family-air">highlighted</a> the racial diversity that exists within his own home, and Liu, who stands to become the first Asian-American citywide elected official, put together a black, Latino and Asian <a href="http://www.liunewyork.com/news/candidate-controller-challenges-old-ethnic-alliances">coalition</a> of supporters.</p>
<p>  The only question, for our prognosticators, seemed to be how large their margin of victory will be when the final numbers are in.</p>
<p>  <u><strong>Public Advocate</strong></u></p>
<p> David Vermillion: de Blasio-60%</p>
<p> Aaron Naparstek: de Blasio-58%</p>
<p> Michael Oliva: de Blasio-57%</p>
<p> Jerry Skurnik: de Blasio-57%</p>
<p> Gatemouth: de Blasio-56%</p>
<p>  Alex Zablocki: Green-52%</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>  <u><strong>Comptroller</strong></u></p>
<p> Alex Zablocki: Liu-58%</p>
<p> David Vermillion: Liu-58%</p>
<p> Aaron Naparstek: Liu 56%</p>
<p> Gatemouth: Liu-55%</p>
<p> Jerry Skurnik: Liu-52%</p>
<p> Michael Oliva: Liu-52%</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>  <u><strong>Turnout</strong></u></p>
<p> Lew Fidler: 225,000</p>
<p> Alex Zablocki: 262,000</p>
<p> Stu Loeser: 200,000</p>
<p> David Vermillion: 165,000</p>
<p> Michael Oliva: 140,000</p>
<p> Jerry Skurnik: 130,000</p>
<p>  Gatemouth: half of the turnout in the primary.</p>
<p>  Dick Dadey- 6%</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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