5 Fearless Emmy Predictions: Glee Amy Poehler and More!

You saw the Emmy nominations. You read the reactions from “surprised” nominees. You posted scathing Internet comments because your favorite show/actor didn’t get noticed. And you forgot about it all over the weekend. Now what are you supposed to do? Make predictions about who’s going to win, of course! Here now are five, sure-to-be winners at August’s Emmy Award ceremonies. Opinions expressed here subject to change at least three times over the next two months.

Modern Family will win Best Comedy Series

Glee got all the Emmy love with a series show high 19 nominations — The Pacific led all nominees with 24 — but Modern Family was no slouch either. The ABC show seems almost manufactured in a lab with the way it combines the modern conceits of current series with the familiar tropes of classic sitcoms. That warm feeling of nostalgia is why voters will choose Family over fellow flashy newcomer Glee. Besides: Would anyone even call Glee a “comedy series?”

Jon Hamm will win Best Actor in a Drama

All Breaking Bad star Bryan Cranston does is win Emmys. But this year, it just feels like there might be a sea change for no other reason than its time for someone else to win. His biggest competiton is likely Jon Hamm and don’t be surprised when the dapper Don Draper takes home the trophy. Hamm has the Emmy “heat” — he also got another nomination as Comedy Guest Star for his hilarious turn on 30 Rock — and he’s clearly worthy because of his performance. Lost fans hoping for a Matthew Fox win because the series wrapped up in the spring, however, shouldn’t hold their breath. Don’t forget: James Gandolfini didn’t win for the final season of The Sopranos. Like Fox-y will?

Amy Poehler will win Best Actress in a Comedy

The beloved Parks and Recreation could only muster two nominations — one for star Amy Poehler and one for best theme song. And while it does have a great theme song, expect Poehler to take home the one Parks trophy that will matter. There is history here: America Ferrara, Tina Fey and last year’s winner, Toni Collette, were first time nominees on rookie-ish shows who won (Parks and Rec had a six-episode season one), and in all cases their victories seemed like a “shock.” If Poehler were to win, people would certainly be surprised, but her work on Parks and Recreation — turning her character from a one-note Michael Scott clone into a layered, well-meaning and original human being — deserves as many accolades as possible.

Chris Colfer will win Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy

One of the biggest surprises during Thursday’s nominations was Chris Colfer being selected for Glee. The young star — who has no previous television credits — is a scene stealer on the show as the newly out-of-the-closet Kurt Hummel. That’s all well and good, but that Colfer can also flash Emmy voters his scenes from the Glee episode “Theatricality” — which centered on Kurt and his dad coming to terms with their relationship — is the cherry on top of what feels like an obvious win. Apologies Neil Patrick Harris: You’re great. You just aren’t Kurt.

The Tonight Show with Conan O’Brien will win Best Variety, Music or Comedy Series

If you were an Emmy voter and had the chance to put Conan O’Brien on NBC one last time — the Emmys are on NBC this year — wouldn’t you do everything in your power to make it happen, even if Conan wasn’t the most deserving nominee? Thought so.