Hotline doesn’t rate Adler/Runyan race on top 40 list

In New Jersey, it’s widely assumed the 3rd Congressional District race will be the most competitive as former Eagles offensive lineman Jon Runyan, a Republican, goes after freshman U.S. Rep. John Adler (D-Cherry Hill) in a district long dominated by the GOP.

But’s Hotline doesn’t rank the contest on its list of top 40 House seats likely to change parties in November mid-term elections.

The Adler campaign sent out a morning email trumpting the news.

“…The (Democratic) party’s incumbents have built up solid war chests in anticipation of extremely tough contests in the fall,” Hotline reports. “Conversely, many of their Republican challengers start the general election in relatively weak positions, mostly because primaries have exhausted their stockpiles.”

Adler reported $1,947,123 cash on hand in his June 30th Federal Election Commission report. Runyan reported $471,761.

“That should not give Democrats false comfort, for the Republican wave still appears to be building,” Hotline said. “Another important clue for November — revealed late last week — comes directly from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and it does not inspire confidence. The committee reserved $28 million worth of general election air time for 39 vulnerable incumbents. For the most part there were few surprises on the list, as most were already expected to face tough races. Still, the list served as confirmation of which incumbents do indeed face the toughest races.” 

Nonetheless, the absence of the 3rd Congressional District race from the list temporarily buoyed the Adler camp, which is still preparing for a hard re-election campaign.