OLS unveils proposed budget overview; sees some revenues stabilizing, but uncertainty remains

The state Office of Legislative Services issued its budget analysis for fiscal year 2012 this morning, painting a picture of revenues that appear to be stabilizing but still carrying a degree of uncertainty.

“The challenge for forecasters this Spring is discerning if FY 2011 is in fact the beginning of a revenue upturn”, OLS reported.

” After two years of steady declines, State revenues in FY 2011 have begun to stabilize and some major revenues are reporting growth.

“So far this year compared to the same point in FY 2010, the gross income tax is up 3.0%, though some declines are anticipated this April as the complete impact of the expired temporary tax increase is accounted for.

“Sales tax revenues are up by 2.9%, corporation business tax revenues are up by 7.9%, the smaller corporation tax on banks and financial institutions is up by a robust 43.5%, and transfer inheritance tax revenues are growing at an 11.7% rate.

“On the other hand, the motor fuels tax, petroleum products tax, casino revenues, insurance premiums taxes, and lottery revenues are down. The March revenue figures should be available by mid April.”

According to OLS, The total revenue estimate for FY 2011 is $71.8 million below the Executive’s revised projection. For the Executive branch:  Revised estimates for total revenues are up by $99.9 million from the level certified in the FY 2011 Appropriations Act.

Other Executive branch figures:

• The estimate for the gross income tax is increased by $221.0 million.  The OLS estimate for the gross income tax is the same as the Executive’s.

• The estimate for the sales tax is down $54.0 million.  The OLS estimate for the sales tax is the same as the Executive’s.

• The  estimate for the corporation business tax is up $175.0 million.  The OLS  estimate for the corporation business tax is $20 million below the Executive’s.

• The estimates for all remaining revenues are down by a combined $242.1 million.  The OLS estimates for all remaining revenues are $51.8 million below the Executive’s.

For Fiscal Year 2012, OLS estimates   are $1.112 billion above FY 2011, a 3.9% increase.

• Total revenue estimates for FY 2012 are $53.3 million below the Executive’s projection.

• The Executive gross income tax estimate is up $452.2 million, to $10.52 billion, or 4.5% above FY 2011. The gross income tax estimate OLS has is $51.7 million above the Executive’s.

• The sales tax estimate is up $302.5 million, or 3.9% over FY 2011.  The OLS sales tax estimate is the same as the Executive’s.

• The corporation business tax estimate is up $109.9 million, or 4.7% above FY 2011.  The OLS  corporation business tax estimate is $19.8 million below the Executive’s.

• All remaining revenue estimates are up by $247.4 million. The OLS estimates for all remaining revenues are $85.2 million below the Executive’s.

OLS unveils proposed budget overview; sees some revenues stabilizing, but uncertainty remains