Obama Pollster Says (With Data) Ryan Pick a Dud

 Obama Pollster Says (With Data) Ryan Pick a DudThe Obama campaign is out this morning with a memo from lead pollster Joel Benenson that finds–unsurprisingly, perhaps, considering the source–that the choice of Paul Ryan as Mitt Romney’s running mate has been a dud.

The memo, titled “The Announcement without a Bounce: Romney’s Choice of Ryan Falls Flat” lays out the data.

Among the salient findings are that typically a veep choice gives a candidate a 4.7 percent bounce, but that according to Gallup, the choice of Mr. Ryan gained Mr. Romney only 1 percentage point. Mr. Benenson, who is based in New York, also said that veep choices count little among how voters actually vote, but that they do say something about a candidate’s decision-making ability. 

“On this score, Romney seems to have failed a key test,” Mr. Benenson writes. “Only 39% view Romney’s choice as ‘excellent’ or ‘good,’ while 42% say Ryan was an ‘only fair’ or ‘poor’ choice. These are the lowest marks since Gallup began asking the question, 5 points lower than George H.W. Bush’s choice of Dan Quayle. Meanwhile, only 48% believe Ryan is qualified to be president, also near the bottom in the past quarter century.  Only Quayle (32%) and Sarah Palin (39%) were seen as less qualified.”

Full memo below:

TO:               Interested Parties

 

FROM:         Joel Benenson

 

RE:              The Announcement without a Bounce: Romney’s Choice of Ryan Falls Flat

 

DATE:          August 16, 2012

Ø  Mitt Romney’s choice of Paul Ryan as the Republican vice presidential nominee is viewed less favorably and has had less positive impact than nearly any nomination in a quarter century.

ü  Initial metrics place Romney’s choice on a par with the selections of Sarah Palin and Dan Quayle.

Ø  The announcement of a nominee’s running-mate has typically led to a measurable bump for a ticket.

ü  Since 1996, Republicans have received an average 4.7 point gain in the polls, according to Gallup.

Ø  In contrast, initial polls show that Ryan has had virtually no impact on Romney’s position in the polls, even in polls that have been shown to have a Republican-leaning “house effect.”

ü  In Gallup’s daily tracking poll, Romney has picked up only 1 point of support since the pick.

ü  In Rasmussen’s daily tracker, Romney has lost a point from his pre-announcement standing, going from a 46-44 lead over the President to a 45-44 lead today.

ü  According to the Economist’s YouGov poll, the President has extended his lead from 46-45 in early August to 47-44 in the three days after the choice of Ryan.

Ø  Analysts often over-estimate the influence of a running-mate on a presidential campaign. Studies regularly show that voters base their choice on their opinions of those at the top of the tickets.

Ø  Where the choice of a running mate matters, though, is in what it says about the decision-making ability and priorities of the presidential nominee.

Ø  On this score, Romney seems to have failed a key test.

Ø  Only 39% view Romney’s choice as “excellent” or “good,” while 42% say Ryan was an “only fair” or “poor” choice.

ü  These are the lowest marks since Gallup began asking the question, 5 points lower than George H.W. Bush’s choice of Dan Quayle.

Ø  Meanwhile, only 48% believe Ryan is qualified to be president, also near the bottom in the past quarter century.

ü  Only Quayle (32%) and Sarah Palin (39%) were seen as less qualified.

Ø  Defenders of the Ryan selection have pointed to Ryan’s low level of familiarity as the reason for these poor ratings and the negligible effect on the race dynamic.

Ø  But historical data casts into doubt this analysis.

Ø  In its first post-pick poll, Gallup finds 39% saying they had never heard of Ryan.

ü  By comparison, Sarah Palin was unknown to 51%, and yet her choice was still viewed more favorably initially.

ü  In 1996, Jack Kemp was unknown to 55% of voters. Nonetheless, his choice led to a 9-point bump in Bob Dole’s position in the horserace against President Bill Clinton.

Ø  A more likely explanation is that for his running-mate, Romney has chosen a leader from the most extreme wing of the the least popular institution in America, Congressional Republicans.

ü  In the most recent Gallup poll, only 10% approved of the job Congress was doing, the lowest rating Gallup has ever measured for Congress.

ü  A recent PPP poll found that 60% agreed that “this is the worst Congress ever.”

Ø  In this way, the coverage of Ryan emphasizing his position as the “intellectual leader” of the Republican Congress and the author of its agenda only serves to weaken the Romney-Ryan ticket.

ü  Voters’ reaction to Romney’s choice of Ryan suggests a high level of concern that with his selection of running-mate, Romney has explicitly aligned himself with the leadership, the agenda and the extreme ideology of the least popular Congress in history.