With the election possibly as soon as ten months away–legislators in Albany have yet to finalize a date–Ms. Quinn garners 29 percent of Democrats. Former comptroller Bill Thompson trails with ten percent of the vote, followed by public advocate Bill de Blasio and Comptroller John Liu, who each have nine percent of the vote.
But there is hope for the also-rans: 34 percent of voters say they are undecided.
“City Council Speaker Christine Quinn is the early favorite in the Democratic primary for mayor, which could be the only race that counts if Republicans don’t find a candidate, ” said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac Polling Institute. “She’s almost up there with ‘undecided.’ Former Comptroller William Thompson, City Comptroller John Liu and Public Advocate Bill de Blasio are battling for the silver medal.”
Manhattan borough president Scott Stringer garnered four percent of the vote, and publishing executive Tom Allon has one percent.
The election remains very far away, and a lot can happen, but in the early days of the race Ms. Quinn’s rivals will have to try to keep these polling numbers close. Front-runner status can take on a life of its own, and if Ms. Quinn looks like the likely winner, expect establishment and union support to coalesce around her early on, making it more difficult for others to find an opening.
Keep in mind too that unless Ms. Quinn reaches 40 percent, there will be a run-off, and so the candidates could position themselves for second place and hope to beat her there.
Meanwhile, the biggest surprise of these Q-polls continues to be the poor showing of Bill Thompson. If nothing else these polls track name recognition, and the Democratic nominee from four years should certainly lead there.