Who Will Win Emmys? Amy Poehler? Lena Dunham? Breaking Bad?

Best Miniseries or Movie nominees
American Horror Story (FX)
Game Change (HBO)
Hatfields & McCoys (History)
Hemingway & Gellhorn (HBO)
Luther (BBC America)
Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia (PBS)
The Sarah Palin drama from HBO feels more prestigious, more eminently award-able, than the two other contenders in this category, FX’s attention-getting, but trashy, American Horror Story, and History’s downmarket, popular Hatfields & McCoys.
Best Reality-Competition Series nominees
The Amazing Race (CBS)
Dancing With the Stars (ABC)
Project Runway (Lifetime)
So You Think You Can Dance (Fox)
Top Chef (Bravo)
The Voice (NBC)
The CBS travel series has won this award every year but one in the category’s existence–why change it up now? (The same goes for Best Variety, Music, or Comedy series, where Jon Stewart’s Daily Show has an unbroken streak leading back to the early 2000s.)
Best Comedy Series nominees
30 Rock (NBC)
The Big Bang Theory (CBS)
Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)
Girls (HBO)
Modern Family (ABC)
Veep (HBO)
30 Rock won this award for its first three seasons; Modern Family followed with wins for its first two. A third trophy makes sense–three years is about enough time for the bloom of youth to go off a show, and aside from The Big Bang Theory, the programming here isn’t quite as appealing to a mass audience. Modern Family may not win again after this year, but it looks hard to stop right now.
Best Drama Series nominees
Boardwalk Empire (HBO)
Breaking Bad (AMC)
Downton Abbey (PBS)
Game of Thrones (HBO)
Homeland (Showtime)
Mad Men (AMC)
Mad Men, on the other hand, has won this trophy four consecutive times–no drama has ever made it to five. And the heat seems a bit off Mad Men, at least relatively, with a field of many shows even more water-cooler-y (and Boardwalk Empire). We’re calling this one for the expensive, surprisingly popular genre series Game of Thrones, which has made TV safe for fantasy.
Who Will Win Emmys? Amy Poehler? Lena Dunham? <em>Breaking Bad</em>?