Who Will Win Emmys? Amy Poehler? Lena Dunham? Breaking Bad?

Daniel D'Addario — Fri, 21 Sep 2012 11:50:47 -0400

Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Getty Images)

The Emmys, television's slightly-less-glitzy answer to the Oscars, are this Sunday, and we have some relatively uneducated guesses as to which of the nominees will bring home an oddly spiky statuette.

Best Actress in a Comedy nominees

Zooey Deschanel, New Girl

Lena Dunham, Girls

Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie

Tina Fey, 30 Rock

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep

Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly

Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation

This overstuffed category--seven nominees!--excluded two of last year's nominees as well as the acclaimed and Golden Globe-winning Laura Dern performance on Enlightened, so each person here has a passionate base of support. Even so, it's not hard to believe that Edie Falco and Tina Fey have already been rewarded amply, and Melissa McCarthy's moment of big-screen fame after Bridesmaids contributed more to her win last year than any great love for Mike & Molly. That leaves four! Zooey Deschanel's New Girl performance seems too controversial to gain broad support here, while Lena Dunham will get her reward elsewhere, in the writing category. Amy Poehler's Parks and Recreation simply doesn't seem as popular among Emmy voters--it failed to get a Best Comedy nomination--and Julia Louis-Dreyfus has won twice, for two different series. They like her any way they can get her, and she'll win for being the star of a buzz-y, popular show.

Best Actor in a Comedy nominees

Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock

Louis C.K., Louie

Don Cheadle, House of Lies

Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men

Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm

Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory

The last four years have seen only two men win in this category--Alec Baldwin and Jim Parsons. It's between those two. With the explosive popularity of The Big Bang Theory one of the biggest stories of the TV season, and 30 Rock winding down, there's no one standing in Jim Parsons's way.

Best Actress in a Drama nominees

Kathy Bates, Harry's Law

Glenn Close, Damages

Claire Danes, Homeland

Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey

Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife

Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men

With Claire Danes's performance on the Showtime series so uniquely acclaimed for its balance of devotion and madness, this is the least close race of the night.

Best Actor in a Drama nominees

Hugh Bonneville, Downton Abbey

Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire

Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad

Michael C. Hall, Dexter

Jon Hamm, Mad Men

Damian Lewis, Homeland

Emmy voters tend to carve out a comfortable groove, and three-time winner Bryan Cranston would be the likeliest pick here--had he not been ineligible last year, breaking the habit. Now it seems wide open, and given that not a single actor from Mad Men has never won--and voters will want to throw it support somewhere given that its Best Drama win is far from assured--Jon Hamm could end up the lucky new winner.

Best Miniseries or Movie nominees

American Horror Story (FX)

Game Change (HBO)

Hatfields & McCoys (History)

Hemingway & Gellhorn (HBO)

Luther (BBC America)

Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia (PBS)

The Sarah Palin drama from HBO feels more prestigious, more eminently award-able, than the two other contenders in this category, FX's attention-getting, but trashy, American Horror Story, and History's downmarket, popular Hatfields & McCoys.

Best Reality-Competition Series nominees

The Amazing Race (CBS)

Dancing With the Stars (ABC)

Project Runway (Lifetime)

So You Think You Can Dance (Fox)

Top Chef (Bravo)

The Voice (NBC)

The CBS travel series has won this award every year but one in the category's existence--why change it up now? (The same goes for Best Variety, Music, or Comedy series, where Jon Stewart's Daily Show has an unbroken streak leading back to the early 2000s.)

Best Comedy Series nominees

30 Rock (NBC)

The Big Bang Theory (CBS)

Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)

Girls (HBO)

Modern Family (ABC)

Veep (HBO)

30 Rock won this award for its first three seasons; Modern Family followed with wins for its first two. A third trophy makes sense--three years is about enough time for the bloom of youth to go off a show, and aside from The Big Bang Theory, the programming here isn't quite as appealing to a mass audience. Modern Family may not win again after this year, but it looks hard to stop right now.

Best Drama Series nominees

Boardwalk Empire (HBO)

Breaking Bad (AMC)

Downton Abbey (PBS)

Game of Thrones (HBO)

Homeland (Showtime)

Mad Men (AMC)

Mad Men, on the other hand, has won this trophy four consecutive times--no drama has ever made it to five. And the heat seems a bit off Mad Men, at least relatively, with a field of many shows even more water-cooler-y (and Boardwalk Empire). We're calling this one for the expensive, surprisingly popular genre series Game of Thrones, which has made TV safe for fantasy.

Observer » Who Will Win Emmys? Amy Poehler? Lena Dunham? Breaking Bad?

Who Will Win Emmys? Amy Poehler? Lena Dunham? Breaking Bad?