City Hall Horse Race: Marist Mania Edition

It’s time for the latest installment of our weekly scorecard rating how next year’s potential mayoral candidates performed in the past seven days. The most notable development was yesterday’s Marist poll of the 2013 Democratic primary, showing Council Speaker Christine Quinn leading with 23% of Democrats, followed by 2009 nominee Bill Thompson with 15%. Rounding up the rear were Comptroller John Liu at 9%, Public Advocate Bill de Blasio at 8% and Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer with 6%. In what may be the most interesting aspect of the poll, 37% of the city’s Democratic electorate is undecided, compared to 29% last time Marist surveyed the race.

It’s important to note the predictive value of these numbers is pretty close to zero. With a multi-candidate Democratic primary, as opposed a red vs. blue affair, the choices are all ideologically similar and largely unknown. As we get closer to Election Day, voters will develop stronger opinions and may shift their ballot depending on the perceived viability of the various contenders. That’s not to say we can’t glean important information like name recognition and trendlines, however!

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Tom Allon still isn’t viable citywide, but, as City & State noted, his switch to GOP generated a burst of media coverage. Without a heavyweight contender on their side yet, Republicans might look at Mr. Allon and say, “Hey, maybe it’s going to be this guy.”

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Christine Quinn‘s support isn’t where it was in April, when she had 32%, but it’s always good to lead the pack, as institutional players often want to endorse the front-runner to share the eventual glory. Her upcoming paid sick day hearings will present a balancing act, however.

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Scott Stringer‘s week may have been quiet, and we don’t really know if he’s still in the race, but we awarded Mr. Stringer several Politicker Celebrity Points™ for his anti-hydrofracking event with Scarlett Johansson and Sean Lennon.

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John Liu‘s wiretaps were released in a heavily redacted form this week. Though there were no damning revelations, his candidacy needs the federal probe to end. On the other hand, he launched some kind of initiative dealing with parking fines, which is nice.

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Billy Thompson is polling in second behind Ms. Quinn, but his numbers should really be higher given the fact he almost won in 2009. On the other hand, he did announce an opinion on Grand Central Terminal’s rezoning. Surely someone cares about that.

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Bill de Blasio used this morning to productively fume at Ms. Quinn over her continued effort to block a vote on paid sick days, but if he wants to unite anti-Quinn forces behind his back, hey, it’d help to be out-polling the guy being investigated by the FBI.