For presidential contests, Ohio is important. Every politico knows that.
This year’s race between President Barack Obama and his Republican rival Mitt Romney is proving to be no exception. Just a couple days ago, The New York Times’s widely respected number-cruncher Nate Silver released an analysis giving Ohio a 50-50 chance of deciding the next occupant of the White House.
With all eyes on Ohio, President Obama seems to be ahead in the potentially decisive battle for the Buckeye State. In an article today, Mr. Silver noted Mr. Obama has held the lead in 16 Ohio polls since the first presidential debate, while Mr. Romney has led in six, with the most recent three polls showing a tie and two slight leads for Mr. Obama. The wider of the two was a 5-point margin from a Time magazine survey.
However, Mr. Romney’s camp doesn’t buy the idea they’re behind in Ohio. Earlier this afternoon, they released a memo saying these indications of Mr. Obama’s strength in the state just can’t possibly be true, taking particular issue with the Time survey.
“The Time Magazine poll shows Governor Romney trailing by 5 points statewide, but winning Independent voters by a 53%-38% margin,” the Romney campaign’s national and Ohio field directors, Rich Beeson and Scott Jennings respectively, declared. “That’s just not possible. Write it down – if Mitt Romney wins independent voters by 15 points in Ohio, he’ll be the next President of the United States.”
The reason why this is impossible, they explain, is because the poll has a 9-point Democratic registration edge, while, during the 2008 presidential election, the Ohioan electorate favored the Democrats by 8 points.
It should be noted when Mr. Obama’s team released a memo criticizing the methodology of Gallup’s polling operations, the Republican National Committee said it demonstrated the “panicked” nature of the Democratic position.
View the Romney campaign’s polling memo below: