Tonight is the 85th Academy Awards, and for all intents and purposes it should be a good one. Look at all those serious films, and the one movie by Quentin Tarantino! And with big snubs for Best Director for both Argo and Zero Dark Thirty, does that mean one of them will be be sweeping up the Best Picture Award as a consolation prize? And most importantly, is it too late to write in a ballot for Javier Bardem in Skyfall? Because he was great.
This year we’re making our predictions in order of the film and/or celebrity, not the award. That’s because this time … it’s personal. No, seriously: between Kathryn Bigelow and Ben Affleck being iced out of Best Director, the Weinstein Bros. not having a snowball’s chance in hell of scoring a big win and the fact that we’re practically giving an award to Anne Hathaway just to make her stop sing-crying, there’s going to be a lot of sore losers tonight. But don’t worry; we’re using a time-tested formula for predicting the bitter ceremonies, including taking all of the guesses on Twitter and averaging them against Nate Silver’s predictions. Then we throw those out the window and get ourselves angry over Lincoln’s inevitable windfall of awards that should be going to that movie that had all those great New Yorker articles written about it and stars a 9-year-old who wasn’t even an actress when she started the film, which is about 50 percent more method than Daniel Day-Lewis’s decision to become an Italian cobbler every time he’s taking a hiatus from Hollywood.
So enjoy, and don’t forget to tune into our live chat on the Oscars, starting at 7 p.m.!