Don’t call him “front-runner” just yet.
Only one day after Marist College found former Congressman Anthony Weiner with 25 percent of the mayoral race’s Democratic vote–5 points ahead of his closest opponent, Christine Quinn–a new Quinnipiac University survey found Ms. Quinn ahead and a third contender, former Comptroller Bill Thompson, nipping surprisingly close to their heels.
According to Quinnipiac, Ms. Quinn now has 19 percent of the vote, Mr. Weiner has 17 percent and Mr. Thompson has 16 percent.
In the firm’s May 22 poll, the three candidates had 25 percent, 15 percent and 10 percent respectively, so despite her current lead, Ms. Quinn’s numbers continue to move in a downward trajectory. Just a few months ago, the City Council speaker was approaching the 40 percent threshold needed to avoid a runoff election, but the race appears to be more and more of a dogfight as the candidates sprint towards the September 10 Democratic primary.
“William Thompson’s spurt – no doubt spurred in part by his endorsement last week by the United Federation of Teachers – is the big news in this new poll. The other news is Council Speaker Christine Quinn’s slide and that’s more puzzling,” said pollster Maurice Carroll in a statement. “A few polls ago, she was edging close to the magic 40 percent. Now she’s down with the guys.”
Not everyone saw a significant change since May, however. Public Advocate Bill de Blasio posted 10 percent today, the exact same number he had previously, while Comptroller John Liu earned just 7 percent, up a single point.
Of course, early polling, especially for multi-candidate primary elections where voters may easily change their minds and turnout is difficult to measure, has limited predictive value.
View the full results below: