Mayoral candidate Bill de Blasio has surpassed the 40 percent he needs to win the Democratic nomination without a runoff, at least according to the latest poll.
New Quinnipiac University numbers put the front-running Mr. de Blasio far ahead of the competition, with the support of 43 percent of likely voters. Former Comptroller Bill Thompson and City Council Speaker Christine Quinn are battling it out for second, the poll shows, with 20 percent and 18 percent of the vote, respectively.
And former Congressman Anthony Weiner remains far behind, with 7 percent, trailed by Comptroller John Liu with 4 percent, according to the poll, which comes exactly one week from primary day.
“Can Public Advocate Bill de Blasio keep his surge going for seven more days? If he does, his first contribution could be to the New York City budget – saving the expense of a run-off election,” said pollster Maurice Carroll, who credited Mr. de Blasio’s son, Dante, at least partially for his last-minute surge.
“Dante’s big Afro is the campaign image everyone remembers. What a TV commercial! What a boost with everyone who has kids! What a plus in the black community!” he said.
In fact, Mr. de Blasio is leading across all demographics. He is besting Ms. Quinn–vying to be the city’s first female and first openly gay mayor–among women, with 44 percent of the vote. And he has surpassed Mr. Thomspon, the race’s only black candidate, among blacks, with 47 percent.
The poll is the third to put Ms. Quinn in third place–a troubling sign for the former front-runner, though the gap between her and Ms. Thompson is within the poll’s 3.6 point margin of error.
“Council Speaker Christine Quinn’s collapse could be part of a seeming New York tradition of throwing female candidates under the bandwagon wheels,” noted Mr. Carroll, who pointed to other well-known women, including Carol Bellamy, Mary Codd and Ruth Messinger, who also came up short.
But even if there is a runoff, Mr. de Blasio would enter clear favorite, winning 66 – 25 percent in a theoretical match-up against Ms. Quinn and 56 – 36 percent again Mr. Thompson. Mr. Thompson would best Ms. Quin 59 – 33 percent, the survey found.
Still, 24 percent of those polled said there was a good chance they’d change their mind before next Tuesday–though 61 percent of Thompson supporters, 59 percent of de Blasio backers and 56 percent of Quinn supporters said they’d be sticking with their picks.
As for the Republicans, the poll shows former MTA Chair Joe Lhota leading with 48 percent of the likely Republican vote, versus just 24 percent for billionaire Gristedes owner John Catsimatidis, who has poured millions of his fortune into the race.
Here are the full results: