Data Crunch: A Deeper Look at State Legislative Districts

A city map of New York State Senate districts. (Photo: LATFOR)

A city map of New York State Senate districts. (Photo: LATFOR)

Across New York State this year, one of the most important election battles will be for control of the State Senate, and new data released today illuminates how competitive many of these races many be.

The left-leaning election-watch site Daily Kos Elections tabulated data from the 2012 presidential race in each state legislative district, providing strong indications of which races will be prioritized as the two parties duke it out for control of the chamber, which is currently governed by a precarious balance of Republicans and a breakaway group of Democrats.

For instance, Republican Senator Lee Zeldin, who is planning on vacating his Long Island seat to run for Congress, is set to leave behind a district that went over 55 percent for President Barack Obama, giving Democrats strong hope for a pickup. However, New York Republicans have a better track record when it comes to local elections than federal ones, leaving party sources confident they’ll hang onto seats like Mr. Zeldin’s.

Though Democrats have stronger opportunities for offense overall, according to the Daily Kos numbers, caveats remain. Democratic turnout typically dips in off-year cycles, as opposed to presidential election years, and the strength of the potential candidates running can vary wildly from district to district.

Making matters more complicated still are the four members of the breakaway Independent Democratic Conference faction–Jeff Klein, Diane Savino, David Carlucci and David Valesky–who are hoping to expand their numbers, one Democrat–Simcha Felder–who caucuses with the Republicans, and two senators–Malcolm Smith and John Sampson–who occupy seats in heavily Democratic districts but are awaiting corruption trials and have no conference.

Similar data for the State Assembly, which is expected to remain firmly in Democratic hands, can be found here. Daily Kos Elections’ legislative data for states across the country can be seen here.

View the State Senate data below:

SD Legislator Party Obama # Romney # Obama % Romney %
1 Kenneth LaValle R 70799 66595 50.90% 47.88%
2 John Flanagan R 61540 70648 45.97% 52.77%
3 Lee Zeldin R 59739 46780 55.37% 43.36%
4 Philip Boyle R 62453 54221 52.92% 45.94%
5 Carl Marcellino R 68415 70715 48.65% 50.29%
6 Kemp Hannon R 70006 56669 54.70% 44.28%
7 Jack Martins R 69838 58615 53.84% 45.19%
8 (VACANT) R 72780 56588 55.72% 43.33%
9 Dean Skelos R 71204 60608 53.52% 45.56%
10 James Sanders D 83489 4803 94.32% 5.43%
11 Tony Avella D 63759 34178 64.43% 34.54%
12 Michael Gianaris D 69008 13158 82.58% 15.75%
13 Jose Peralta D 54687 8325 86.00% 13.09%
14 Malcolm Smith D* 97014 7284 92.63% 6.95%
15 Joseph Addabbo, Jr. D 51102 33443 59.8% 39.13%
16 Toby Ann Stavisky D 51673 17398 74.05% 24.93%
17 Simcha Felder D* 27962 39987 40.75% 58.27%
18 Martin Malave Dilan D 82200 4472 93.65% 5.10%
19 John Sampson D* 89166 11041 88.72% 10.99%
20 (VACANT) D 91335 4843 94.22% 5.00%
21 Kevin Parker D 105733 5422 94.22% 4.83%
22 Martin Golden R 38742 34922 51.91% 46.79%
23 Diane Savino IDC 52806 23531 68.53% 30.54%
24 Andrew Lanza R 44918 65338 40.33% 58.66%
25 Velmanette Montgomery D 118000 2942 96.45% 2.40%
26 Daniel Squadron D 81971 16507 81.8% 16.47%
27 Brad Hoylman D 105587 20279 82.55% 15.85%
28 Liz Krueger D 89548 37959 69.41% 29.42%
29 Jose Serrano D 85621 7976 90.81% 8.46%
30 Bill Perkins D 118185 4758 95.32% 3.84%
31 Adriano Espaillat D 101226 9664 90.22% 8.61%
32 Rubén Díaz, Sr. D 83437 2670 96.69% 3.09%
33 Gustavo Rivera D 66201 2633 95.86% 3.81%
34 Jeffrey Klein IDC 71634 23903 74.28% 24.79%
35 Andrea Stewart-Cousins D 82278 31019 71.95% 27.13%
36 Ruth Hassell-Thompson D 96228 4645 95.08% 4.59%
37 George Latimer D 69758 58155 53.95% 44.97%
38 David Carlucci IDC 63603 53380 53.82% 45.17%
39 Bill Larkin R 58202 50897 52.65% 46.04%
40 Greg Ball R 68640 65294 50.60% 48.13%
41 Terry Gipson D 69524 58783 53.27% 45.04%
42 John Bonacic R 61267 50738 53.76% 44.52%
43 Kathleen Marchione R 72893 62320 52.88% 45.21%
44 Neil Breslin D 79551 36153 67.28% 30.57%
45 Betty Little R 65453 48809 56.26% 41.95%
46 Cecilia Tkaczyk D 71383 58986 53.64% 44.32%
47 Joseph Griffo R 52027 53325 48.55% 49.76%
48 Patty Ritchie R 51076 46477 51.45% 46.82%
49 Hugh Farley R 64252 58861 51.16% 46.87%
50 John DeFrancisco R 74655 58974 54.90% 43.37%
51 James Seward R 59262 56571 50.06% 47.79%
52 Thomas Libous R 58163 57507 49.19% 48.63%
53 David Valesky IDC 70570 40523 62.3% 35.77%
54 Michael Nozzolio R 61675 60106 49.68% 48.41%
55 Ted O’Brien D 81249 59574 56.53% 41.45%
56 Joseph Robach R 71069 45529 59.96% 38.41%
57 Catharine Young R 47398 61680 42.64% 55.49%
58 Tom O’Mara R 57213 53251 50.71% 47.19%
59 Patrick Gallivan R 61477 72564 45.03% 53.16%
60 Mark Grisanti R 75154 56329 56.05% 42.01%
61 MichaelRanzenhofer R 67954 65062 50.21% 48.08%
62 George Maziarz R 56130 59674 47.60% 50.61%
63 Timothy Kennedy D 86034 26446 75.27% 23.14%
Total     4485916 2490507 63.43% 35.22%

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