Defeated last night in Indiana, Hillary Clinton will rebound come June in New Jersey, where she leads Bernie Sanders 2-1, according to today’s Monmouth University Poll.
The poll also finds that most Democratic voters feel that picking Sen. Cory Booker as her running mate wouldn’t give her campaign much of a strategic advantage.
Clinton has the support of 60% of likely Democratic voters in New Jersey while Sanders’s support stands at 32%. Clinton holds a lead among nearly every demographic group in the electorate, including voters age 50 and older (70% to 25%), voters under 50 (51% to 38%), black voters (64% to 24%), white voters (60% to 34%), and women (69% to 22%). The only group where Sanders is competitive is among Democratic men, earning 45% to 49% for Clinton.
“Despite her loss in Indiana, it looks like Clinton is on target to corral the delegates she needs for the nomination. New Jersey is shaping up to make a significant contribution to her final total,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
As Clinton slogs her way to the nomination, speculation around possible running mates has intensified. One possibility bandied about by the media is Booker, the junior U.S. Senator from New Jersey. While few of the state’s Democrats think he would be a bad choice, many say he doesn’t necessarily give Clinton a boost in November. Overall, 33% say Booker in the vice presidential slot would help a Clinton ticket while only 10% say he would hurt her chances. However, nearly half (48%) say adding Booker to the ticket wouldn’t matter either way.
“New Jersey Democrats don’t have anything against Booker. They just think Clinton might want to look elsewhere for a running mate who could give her a strategic edge,” said Murray.
Garden State voters have become used to being treated as an afterthought in the presidential nomination process. With Sanders vowing to carry the fight to the convention, though, the state’s Democrats are holding out hope that they might actually see some campaign activity. Nearly two-thirds say it is likely that either of the party’s presidential candidates will actually campaign in New Jersey in the coming weeks, including 28% who say this is very likely and 37% who say this is somewhat likely. Just 20% say it is unlikely that the state will see any presidential campaign activity from the Democrats.
Even if Clinton is able to get the delegates she needs to secure the nomination before June 7th, 81% of likely Democratic voters say they will still turn out to vote in New Jersey’s primary, including 84% of Clinton supporters and 77% of Sanders supporters. Just 16% say they might stay home if the race is effectively over by then.
The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from May 1 to 3, 2016 with 301 New Jersey voters likely to vote in the Democratic presidential primary. This sample has a margin of error of +5.7 percent. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch.