Make no mistake, the Mets made a tremendous strategic upgrade when they changed managers from Willie Randolph to Jerry Manuel in June 2008. The former struggled with the elementary questions of bullpen management and player and media communication; the latter excels at all three.

But even in a game Manuel managed supremely for nearly nine full innings, a 4-3 loss yesterday to the Florida Marlins, Manuel’s decision to pinch-hit Omir Santos for Ramon Castro with the bases loaded in the ninth inning defies all logic applied to it.

Manuel’s week-long love affair with playing Santos over Castro has all the makings of a Willie Randolph-style blunder, both in terms of strategy and player motivation.

When starting catcher Brian Schneider hit the disabled list on April 17, it was widely assumed that Castro would finally get his chance to prove he could play every day. After all, the question with Castro has never been if he could hit—his OPS is .769 since joining the Mets in 2005, with 31 home runs in 727 at-bats—but whether he could stay healthy. A performing Castro wouldn’t simply be an adequate substitute for Schneider, but a significant upgrade.

Castro, now 33, dedicated himself to training this offseason, and shed 25 pounds. He has been healthy all season, and after a slow start, has hit .304 over his last 23 at-bats, so recent performance hasn’t been a problem, either. In fact, Castro homered the night before Schneider was placed on the DL, and had two hits in his first start as the would-be starting catcher.

But Omir Santos seemed to impress Jerry Manuel quite a bit in his limited time with the Mets, hitting a double and a triple in his first major league start April 19. Then, though Castro had a hit in both his April 22 and April 24 starts, Omir Santos took firm hold of the position, getting the chance to start the last four games in a row before Wednesday afternoon.

The reasons given for this have varied, none of them geared toward common sense. It was said that the Mets wanted to see what Santos could do before Schneider returned—but they are paying Castro $4.6 million in 2008 and 2009 for the chance to see what Ramon Castro could do should Schneider get hurt. 

It was said the Mets were dissatisfied with Castro’s handling of pitchers, yet in 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008, pitchers allowed a significantly lower OPS with Castro behind the plate than they did with New York’s starting catcher. It also makes no sense that Santos, with the club less than two weeks, would have a better handle on what pitches to call than Castro, who has been with the club since 2005.

On Wednesday, Castro finally got another opportunity to start, and made the most of it, collecting two hits and an RBI. With two out in the ninth and the bases loaded, the Mets had Castro set to hit against a struggling Matt Lindstrom. Yet Manuel chose the particular indignity of not only pinch-hitting for Castro, but doing so with Santos, who had to come all the way from the bullpen in center field to hit.

Santos popped up to end the game, but the decision was an awful one regardless of the outcome.

“I think Santos has a little shorter swing,” Manuel said in his press conference following the game. “And when you have a little shorter swing, it is easier to get to a guy throwing in the upper nineties. If it would have been a different—let’s say, a sinker-slider guy, then Ramon would have continued to hit.”

However, the decision robbed Castro, a tremendous fastball hitter, of the chance to hit. Both of Castro’s hits earlier in the game against starter Josh Johnson came on fastballs. And the 1-1 fastball Santos popped up to end the game is just the pitch Castro often deposits into the seats.

The choice also raises an alarming belief in Santos, who is a nice story, but is, in fact, a career .651 OPS hitter in the minor leagues who celebrated his 28th birthday Wednesday. Chances are the Mets haven’t found their next great backstop, but merely a career minor leaguer with a week’s worth of magic beans.

In a league where a catcher who can hit is a truly rare gift, the Mets can take advantage of a healthy, motivated Ramon Castro in a contract year, yet seem set to throw away at-bats with Omir Santos, who has yet to draw a major-league walk and has a .769 OPS in 26 at-bats.

The best comparison for Santos is to a 2008 feel-good story, Argenis Reyes. Reyes had a slick glove at second base and posted an .808 OPS in his first 33 at-bats, belying his .674 career minor league OPS. By the end of 2008, Reyes’s OPS was down to .504. Almost certainly, Santos will suffer the same fate. The difference was, the Mets didn’t have a hitter like Castro to play second base.

With Schneider still considered at least a week away from returning, it isn’t too late for New York to change course and give Castro a chance to perform. Castro was gracious after the game, saying the choice was up to the manager, but he did say that Manuel hadn’t told him he might be pinch-hit for.

“I was surprised,” Castro said. Anyone cognizant of Castro’s and Santos’s strengths was surprised as well—not to mention surprise at the departure from Manuel’s tremendous gift of communicating with his players.

“I put mostly everybody in an opportunity to perform,” Manuel said in his press conference following the game. “Everybody gets a shot. I just have to make a decision.”

Clearly, Ramon Castro deserves that shot. For a manager who is so good at making the tactically correct decision—Wednesday, for example, he exploited Josh Johnson’s long pitching delivery and had the Mets steal three bases—the decision to stick with Santos blocks a far better player largely on a hunch. For that kind of managing, the Mets could simply bring back Willie Randolph.

Howard Megdal is the author of The Baseball Talmud, a book about Jewish baseball players.

While much has been made of sideshows this spring ranging from Johan Santana’s brief elbow troubles to the signing of bench-bat Gary Sheffield, the outlook for the 2009 Mets is...not that bad.

The team won 89 games last year despite a horrible bullpen due to strong contributions from both the lineup and the starting rotation. And while both the lineup and rotation essentially intact, the bullpen has been upgraded considerably.

A team with a 5.02 bullpen ERA in the second half of 2008 now possesses a pair of late-inning stoppers, Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz. Both have closed effectively, and both excel at striking out hitters and getting both lefties and righties out—two skills missing from the Mets’ bullpen last season once Billy Wagner got hurt.

This allows both lefty Pedro Feliciano and righty Sean Green to be used as more specialists, though Pedro Feliciano still could be more if he reverts to his 2006-2007 form. Young arms Darren O’Day and Bobby Parnell also offer bullpen upside, with Brian Stokes and a number of backend fillers at AAA ready if need arises.

But put the arrival of Putz and Rodriguez in perspective: the Mets lost 29 games in 2008 when leading after six innings. In 2009, opposing teams will struggle to score after the seventh.

Meanwhile, there are other areas of improvement possible for New York, with few reasons to expect regression from 2008. An offense that scored 799 runs—second in the National League—returns largely intact. Jose Reyes, David Wright and Carlos Beltran are each superstars both at the plate and in the field. All three are healthy.

At first base, some wonder if Carlos Delgado can repeat his 2008. This is usually asked skeptically in reference to his torrid pace beginning on June 27, after which he hit .308/.392/.636 in the season’s final 84 games. What is ignored is Delgado’s pace of .229/.306/.396 in the first 78 games—and that his season total of .271/.353/.518 is well within the expected range of his career performance. Had his awful numbers come in the second half, the concern would be justified—but he further put them to rest by hitting nearly .500 this spring.

The remaining offensive positions are unlikely to regress and stand a good chance of improvement. Mets left fielders posted on OPS of just .730 last year. While Fernando Tatis and Daniel Murphy may not repeat their 2008 OPS of .853 and .871, respectively, their regression should still leave them well ahead of the 2008 mark of .730.

At catcher, a healthier Ramon Castro can keep Brian Schneider from getting overused, spot him against left-handed pitchers, and dramatically improve New York’s catcher production without costing anything on the defensive end. And second base was such a wasteland last season, between Luis Castillo’s .660 OPS and Argenis Reyes’s .504 OPS that merely a healthy Castillo or Alex Cora, the free-agent backup, should improve upon those numbers—while a healthy Castillo and Cora can upgrade the defense, too.

In the rotation, starting with Johan Santana means the Mets can send out a pitcher who likely would have won the 2008 Cy Young Award had the bullpen not cost him seven wins last year. But the entire group finished with the fourth-best ERA in the National League.

And while pitchers are particularly difficult to project, the Mets front four of Santana, Mike Pelfrey, Oliver Perez and John Maine are all between 25-30, with only Maine carrying any injury history. And again, with his shoulder surgery behind him, Maine could well provide more than the 140 innings he gave the Mets in 2008—even with just 140, New York’s starters were quite good.

Fifth starter Livan Hernandez isn’t likely to dominate, fresh off of a 6.05 ERA last season. But with his velocity up and his location strong, Hernandez can provide innings out of the fifth spot as well. And keep in mind—Hernandez posted that ERA pitching much of the year in hitter-friendly Colorado, while the man he is replacing—Pedro Martinez—pitched to a 5.61 ERA last year in pitching-friendly Shea Stadium.

Simple logic hasn’t worked particularly for the Mets as a franchise the past two years. It’s hard to believe in a team capable of blowing a seven-game lead with 17 to play.

But both the 2007 and 2008 teams had fatal flaws—the manager and the bullpen, respectively—that have now been addressed.

There is hope.

Just two years ago, the 2007 New York Yankees reached the playoffs with 94 victories despite a mediocre pitching staff, because the offense averaged six runs per game. The 2009 edition should reach a similar level of success, but it is likely to happen because of, not despite, their pitching.

This season, it is the lineup that is filled with question marks. Fortunately for the Yankees, a starting rotation loaded with both star potential and depth should allow them to overcome any run-scoring hiccups, with a bullpen filled with strikeout pitchers set to finish opponents off.

            In CC Sabathia, the Yankees send their best Opening Day pitcher to the hill since Ron Guidry, if not Whitey Ford. Sabathia’s presence alone means the Yankees start any potential playoff series with a huge advantage.

But if Sabathia falters, he is supported by Joba Chamberlain, who actually posted a nearly identical ERA during his 12 starts to Sabathia’s 2008 mark. Few teams will be able to match Sabathia in October—none can match a healthy Sabathia and Chamberlain.

            Reliable ground-baller Chien-Ming Wang occupies the third spot in the rotation. No longer forced to stretch into an ace, Wang can provide reliable innings and offer a sinker/slider contrast from the repertoires of the strikeout pitchers above him.

            In the fourth slot is A.J. Burnett, who could struggle to live up to the five-year, $82 million contract he signed this winter. However, Burnett is more than qualified to be a fourth starter, and should he get injured, Phil Hughes looks ready to step in.

            Andy Pettitte may be the best fifth starter in baseball. Pettitte was better than his 2008 numbers indicated. His ERA rose to just above league average for the first time in his career, but he still provided 204 innings of good pitching—for a fifth starter, outstanding work. And should his batting average on balls in play return to normal, his ERA should drop considerably.

            As for the bullpen, it starts, as it has for well over a decade, with Mariano Rivera. In a career filled with nothing but outstanding performances, 2008 was the 39-year-old’s best—a 1.40 ERA, and just six walks in 70 2/3 innings against 77 strikeouts. It is assumed that eventually, Rivera will slow down—but there certainly aren’t any signs of it at this point. Even this spring, in six innings, he did not allow a run or a walk and struck out ten.

            But while any bullpen fronted by the best closer of all time would be formidable, this Yankee group is filled with high-upside strikeout pitchers. Brian Bruney, Jonathan Albaladejo, Phil Coke and Edwar Ramirez could all turn into formidable weapons, while Jose Veras looks to build on 2008, and Damaso Marte is a lefty who can crossover and get righties out as well. The Yankees elected to go without a long man, and given the strength in the starting rotation, such a choice is unlikely to hurt them. That’s not a group prone to exiting in the third inning very often.

            As for the hitting, there are questions all around. On the infield: Can Jorge Posada stay healthy and catch 120-130 games after shoulder surgery? If not, the catching falls to Jose Molina, and the offense suffers drastically. Can Robinson Cano recover his 2007 form, when he posted a line of .306/.353/.488, or will he continue his 2008 pace of .271/.305/.410? Will Alex Rodriguez, upon his return from hip surgery, be able to hit like he has in the past? And while Derek Jeter hit .300 last season, he slugged just .408, his lowest mark since 1997. Is this the beginning of the end for Jeter as a frontline player?

            The outfield has similar question marks. With Xavier Nady in right, an average hitter and below-average fielder, how much can the Yankees reasonably expect? Center fielder Brett Gardner is an on-base machine in AAA, but posted a .228/.283/.299 line in his major league trial last year. Is he ready? In left field, Johnny Damon, an outfielder whose game relies on speed, is 35 years old. Can he be the force he was in 2008, or will injuries slow him as they did in 2007? And designated hitter Hideki Matsui had two knee surgeries last season. Just how much he has left is an open question.

            Incredibly, a team that scored 968 runs in 2007 has just one offensive player who seems question-free—first baseman Mark Teixeira, who wasn’t even on the team two years ago. Still, with the kind of pitching the Yankees will throw at the league every day, they don’t need every question to have a positive answer. If just a few of the offensive players continue or return to form, New York will have the pitching to contend with a division that includes the past two American League champions (Boston and Tampa Bay).

            And if the Yankees make it to October, unlike in past years, their pitching should be their salvation, not their undoing.

Hernandez threw 97 pitches over seven innings against a collection of Mets reserves and minor leaguers in an intrasquad game, allowing one run and striking out five—but far less important than the results were the pitches he threw. With a fastball velocity around 85 miles per hour, near the bottom of what’s acceptable for a major-league starter, Hernandez needs to command it well, along with his slider and curveball. On Saturday, he did just that.

Meanwhile, Garcia failed to spot his fastball consistently, and had trouble reaching even 85 miles per hour. When he did, his pitches often sailed high and outside. Without the basic building block of a fastball, his solid off-speed offerings won’t be enough.

For Hernandez, the first inning was a bit of a struggle to get loose. He located his fastball at 82-83 miles per hour, but it tended to stay up at 85-86. For a pitcher who relies on keeping the ball on the ground, those mistakes will often lead to short outings. It happened enough in 2008 to see his season ERA balloon to a career-high 6.05, and is the primary reason he was available to the Mets on a minor-league deal.

By the end of the first inning, however, the Hernandez the Mets are hoping for arrived. He froze a batter with a sinking fastball on the inner part of the plate to end the first, and by the second inning was regularly getting ahead of hitters. His curveball, which comes in at 65 miles per hour and breaks a foot when deployed properly, drew appreciative murmurs from some minor leaguers taking in his outing from behind the metal-fence backstop.

Garcia, meanwhile, still hasn’t found a way to recover his fastball after a string of injuries. He threw several at 80 miles per hour—roughly the speed of Johan Santana’s changeup. While his curve and slider frequently found the plate, they averaged the mid-to-upper 70s in speed, and even the minor leaguers had no trouble making that adjustment.

Hernandez kept opponents guessing, inducing plenty of swings and misses, and seeming to get stronger as the game went on. The swings and misses will be vital for Hernandez, who at his best would strike out six to seven per nine innings, which slowly declined to five, then four, yet experienced continued success. But he averaged around 3.3 strikeouts per nine innings in 2008—far below the minimum level needed for success in today’s game. The result is many balls in play, and a pitcher almost completely at the mercy of luck.

It remains to be seen if major league hitters will miss as many of Hernandez’s offerings as their minor-league equivalents did Saturday, and Hernandez seemed to know that. Four separate times, he reached back for a little extra on his fastball, getting to 88-89 miles per hour. Each time, the ball flattened out, and the hitter laced a hit, the fourth hit a double to right center field by pitcher Jonathon Niese.

But expecting pyrotechnics from Hernandez, Orlando Hernandez’s half-brother, is to ignore his career. The two are polar opposites as pitchers. Livan is a workhorse with a compact motion who succeeds despite lowering strikeout rates, while El Duque always struck out plenty of hitters with a gravity-defying motion that he deployed as long as injuries didn’t interfere—and they often did.

With Garcia likely to begin the season in extended spring training, and fellow fifth-starter sweepstakes entrants Niese and Tim Redding headed for the minor leagues and the disabled list, respectively, it appears to be up to Livan Hernandez as long as the Mets and Pedro Martinez stay far apart on an appropriate salary for 2009. (The Mets appear to think Pedro deserves $1-2 million; Pedro appears steadfast in the $5-8 million range.)

Penciling Hernandez in for one of those spots, a season removed from a 6.05 ERA, is a gamble. Saturday, at least, the gamble looked smart.

Howard Megdal is the author of The Baseball Talmud, a humorous analysis of Jewish baseball players. It will be available in stores March 31.

The largest conference tournament for the best conference in the country begins Tuesday at Madison Square Garden with the bottom eight members of the Big East squaring off. Incredibly, not a single one of the eight has an NCAA tournament bid locked up—in fact, it’s like that only three of them can get a bid without an extended conference tournament run.

Still, many of those teams needing extended runs are quite talented—both Georgetown and Notre Dame have multiple quality wins, with the Hoyas having knocked off four of the nation’s top twenty teams. So as sixteen teams head to MSG, sixteen separate choose-your-own-adventures await, with one automatic bid for whoever captures the Big East tournament.

Top-seeded Louisville, along with Big East seeds 2-4, needs just three wins to capture the Big East title. If the Cardinals win one or two of those games, they will most likely end up with a two seed. If Louisville wins the Big East tournament, a one seed will come to Rick Pitino’s crew.

For second-seeded Pittsburgh, it is hard to imagine losing a one-seed, regardless of how they play. One supposes that if Rutgers finds a way to beat both Notre Dame, its Tuesday opponent, West Virginia, its Wednesday opponent, then shock Pitt, the loss might be enough of a knock on the Panthers’s RPI of 1 overall to make Sunday less than a fait accompli. But figure there’s little adventure for the Panthers.

Third seed Connecticut has a chance at a number-one seed with a tournament win. Should the Huskies choose only to win two games, a two seed is likely waiting for them, particularly if Duke, Oklahoma, Memphis and Michigan State all win their respective conference tournaments. If Connecticut is knocked off in the quarterfinals by an unlikely opponent, the committee could punish them with a three-seed, but both the loss and the result of such a loss are unlikely.

Fourth-seeded Villanova has a chance to get as high as a two seed if the Wildcats win the conference tournament. Should Villanova lose in the quarterfinals, the seed could fall as low as five. Chances are a win or two gets Villanova a three seed.

Now it starts to get interesting. Marquette is a five seed in the Big East tournament, meaning that the Golden Eagles need four victories to win the tournament, as do the other teams seeded 5-8. Marquette needs to show the committee that even without starting point guard Dominic James, who was lost for the season due to injury, that it is an elite team. Several late losses plus an injury could land Marquette a 6-7 seed. But with a strong Big East run, Marquette could secure as high as a three seed—a monumental difference.

Syracuse has been an elite team since Andy Rautins and Arinze Onuaku returned to form. Should the Orange run through the Big East tournament, a four-seed or even a three could be the reward. But with an early loss, the most Syracuse can hope for is probably a six seed.

Big East seven seed West Virginia is the last of the conference’s NCAA locks, at 21-10, 10-8 in conference, with a strong out-of-conference schedule. Still, the Mountaineers look headed for an 7-8 seed in the NCAAs, which means a likely second-round matchup with a top seed. With a pair of wins, including one over second-seeded Pitt, the Mountaineers can secure a 5-6 seed. With a tournament victory, West Virginia can still reach a four seed.

For eighth-seeded Providence, nothing less than a tournament bid is on the line. Despite a 10-8 in-conference record, the Friars, based on a poor overall schedule, have an RPI of just 70. Two wins, the second against Louisville, are a must—three are probably necessary for Providence to be confident on Selection Sunday.

Seeds 9-16 need to win five games to win the Big East tournament. The nine seed, Cincinnati, managed to play its way out of the tournament. The Bearcats were 8-7 in the Big East, but managed to lose to both South Florida and Seton Hall to blow a sure chance at a winning Big East record. Now Cincinnati needs wins over DePaul, Providence and Louisville to even enter NCAA discussion. Win four, and Cincinnati is likely in. Win the tournament, and the Bearcats probably earn a 9-10 seed.

Ten seed Notre Dame’s seven-game midseason losing streak should be put in perspective—six of the seven losses came to teams ranked 21 or higher. Still, the streak left Notre Dame with an overall mark of 17-13, 8-10 in the Big East. NCAA consideration starts with wins over Rutgers and West Virginia, and leads to a Fightin’ Irish bid with a win over Pitt. Should Notre Dame win the tournament, an 8-9 seed probably awaits in the NCAA tournament.

Eleven seed Seton Hall has only one path to the tournament, given an RPI of 100—win all five. Even a tournament victory likely means an NCAA 12-13 seed.

Twelve seed Georgetown, despite a respectable RPI of 49, needs to do a lot of work in the Big East tournament, mostly due to a horrific late loss to St. John’s. The way Georgetown has played since a 10-1 start, it is hard to imagine the Hoyas have the 3-4 wins in them necessary to make the NCAAs. Still, with wins over St. John’s, Villanova and Marquette in the Big East tournament, the committee will have to take another look. A fourth win would likely come at Connecticut’s expense and seal a bid. Win five and Georgetown’s RPI could lift them to a 6-7 seed.

And the adventure for seeds 13-16 is just being there. The Big East never before invited the bottom four seeds in the expanded sixteen-team league. Now, for the first time, even lowly, winless DePaul, at least for a day, can dream NCAA tournament dreams.

With just over a week left until the Big East tournament, however, no less than 11 teams fall under these three categories, and nine of them, should current trends hold, are poised to post 10-8 marks. This will put the NCAA tournament selection committee in the position of either denying a Big East team with a winning conference record a bid (not unprecedented, but very uncommon), or setting a record for bids by a single conference.

Simply put, never has a college basketball conference had so many teams with so much to play for so late in the season.

The two teams at the bottom of the remaining NCAA hopefuls, Notre Dame and Georgetown, could present the biggest challenges of all. Notre Dame has won four of five, and by beating either Villanova or Syracuse, stands a good chance of being a .500 Big East team with a pretty good claim on a tenth bid from the conference.

The Hoyas, meanwhile, have some work to do—but by beating Villanova on Saturday, then winning easy games against St. John’s and DePaul, would run their conference mark to 8-10. With Georgetown playing the third most difficult schedule in the country, and posting wins over Connecticut, Memphis, Syracuse (and potentially Villanova), a few wins in the Big East tournament would make it nearly impossible for the selection committee to ignore, yes, an 11^th Big East team.

While both of these teams will need to pull an upset along the way, note in both cases it would take just a single upset to put the chaotic 11-team scenario in motion. What is remarkable is that for the other nine teams to get to .500 or better, it requires them to simply hold serve.

Cincinnati is 18-10 overall, 8-7 in conference play, with games at Syracuse, at South Florida, and home against Seton Hall. Should Cincinnati win the latter two, as it should, the committee would certainly have to admit a 20-11, 10-8 Bearcats team.

West Virginia just lost to Cincinnati, but at 19-9, 8-7, wins over South Florida and DePaul should get the Mountaineers to 21-10, 10-8 easily, even if they lose to Louisville in their regular-season finale.

Syracuse already has 20 wins, along with an 8-7 conference record, and hosts Cincinnati and Rutgers before traveling to Marquette. Syracuse should beat both its home opponents—even if the Orange split with them, 9-9 should be plenty to get into the NCAA tournament, with non-conference wins over Memphis, Kansas and Florida.

And Providence, a team with probably the weakest overall NCAA resume, managed two feats Wednesday night—a win clinched a .500 record in the Big East, and the victory came over Pittsburgh, giving the Friars a win over the No. 1 team in the country. A win at Rutgers Saturday would guarantee Providence a 10-8 record in-conference to go with 18 total wins—plenty to go dancing, it would seem.

And the top five conference teams—Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Marquette and Villanova—all have clinched at least 11-7 Big East records already, and would be in the NCAA tournament if they failed to win another game.

Should all these scenarios play out, the committee would always have the option of knocking out the Big East teams that play the poorest in their conference tournament. Still, such a move will certainly result in one and perhaps several qualified conference members being left out.

WEEKLY RESET

Saturday, February 28

Georgetown at Villanova, Notre Dame at Connecticut

Georgetown needs a victory over Villanova to have any chance at an at-large bid, while Notre Dame’s recent surge, aided by a victory over Connecticut, could put the Irish into the field. Neither team has an easy task, however.

Sunday, March 1

Marquette at Louisville

An already difficult assignment—beating Louisville at home—became that much tougher when Marquette lost Dominic James, a four-year starter, for the season to a foot injury. James, a quick guard who can get to the basket, is the best-known antidote to the Cardinals’s suffocating defense. Discovering whether his fellow Golden Eagles have enough firepower without him to be a threat in the NCAA tournament will be part of the fun in this matchup.

Monday, March 2

Villanova at Notre Dame

While many of the Big East games are crushing defensive wars of attrition, this one, well, won’t be. The Wildcats and Irish love to shoot, and you’ll see plenty of fast-paced action and a Notre Dame crowd that knows just how much the Irish need another quality win.

Wednesday, March 4

Marquette at Pittsburgh

First Louisville, then Pittsburgh. Considering James hurt his foot shortly into last Wednesday’s game against Connecticut, that means the Golden Eagles had to play without their starting point guard and floor leader against the three best defensive teams in the Big East.

Connecticut coach Jim Calhoun, whose Huskies handed the Orange their latest defeat, 63-49, Wednesday night, speculated that the Big East Conference's brutally deep schedule was to blame.

"Teams are getting hurt in the conference's wash cycle," Calhoun told reporters in a press conference following the game. "The league is filled with good teams who have not-so-good records right now."

But for Syracuse, good teams were no barrier to success early in the season—the Orange have wins this season over non-conference foes Memphis, Kansas and Florida. Instead, it is a pair of injuries to center Arinze Onuaku and Andy Rautins that are both slowing down the Syracuse attack and opening the Orange defense, already the weak spot of the team, even further.

The knee tendinitis Onuaku is suffering from has been hurting Syracuse at both ends of the floor. The center is gamely playing through it, but the results have taken what promised to be a breakout season for the 6-foot-9 junior and made it into a lackluster one.

Prior to the 1-5 skid, Onuaku averaged just below 13 points and eight rebounds per game, scoring 17 or more on five occasions. Over the past six games, his averages are 5.2 points and six rebounds per game, and he's scored 0, 4, 4 and 4 points in the past four contests. More to the point, his mobility is limited, and he can't really jump.

This obviously hurts Syracuse on the defensive end as well. Onuaku had been averaging nearly two blocks per game—over the last six games, he has a total of three blocks. Even worse, that means players can penetrate on Syracuse with impunity, which is problematic for a team whose perimeter players don't move that well laterally, the notable exception being point guard Johnny Flynn.

The ankle injury to Andy Rautins is causing similar problems, especially at the offensive end. Rautins had been shooting just under 40 percent from three-point range until the injury occurred. Since then, however, he's just 13-for-47, or less than 28 percent. And with the ankle problem affecting his quickness, teams have no reason to back off of him defensively, while exploiting him at the other end of the court.

The resulting chasms haven't been filled by either the lackluster replacements off the Syracuse bench, nor from Syracuse's two stars, Flynn and Eric Devendorf. Onuaku is key for a team that has only Rick Jackson, a space filler with no offensive game to speak of, and the undersized Kristof Ongenaet to fill in for Onuaku. Meanwhile, the highly touted Mookie Jones, who could have spelled Rautins, was lost for the year due to injury as well.

For Flynn, the immensely talented point guard, playing every minute while trying to do all of the scoring and run the offense has been asking too much of him. His field goal percentage has dropped from 49 percent in Syracuse's first 19 games to less than 39 percent during Syracuse's 1-5 skid. It's no surprise that his legs wouldn't be under his shots—he's played 231 of a possible 240 minutes during the slump.

Eric Devendorf, meanwhile, has continued scoring. But the lack of offensive options has forced him to try to create his own shots, with disastrous turnover results. Devendorf has averaged better than five turnovers per game, an astounding total for someone who isn't even the main ball-handler on his team. He had an astounding nine turnovers against Providence—not a particularly good defensive team. He's clearly trying to do too much.

Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim is trying to do the best with what he has—and being a Hall of Famer, he does find some openings. Knowing his team can't handle a strong post player, he threw quick double-team traps at both Connecticut's Jeff Adrien and Villanova's Dante Cunningham, with varying degrees of success, particularly against Adrien.

But Saturday's matchup with Georgetown seems designed to exploit Syracuse's current weaknesses. The Hoyas have a tremendously mobile center in Greg Monroe—not only that, but if Syracuse attempts to double-team him, Monroe, the best-passing center in the Big East, will quickly find the open man. A quick point guard in Chris Wright means that Jonny Flynn will be occupied at both ends of the court. And defensively, Syracuse doesn't have answers for both DaJuan Summers and Austin Freeman.

A loss would drop Syracuse to 6-7 in the conference, with 9-9 likely needed to earn an NCAA berth. The Orange then have eight days off before completing their schedule with two difficult games (Villanova, at Marquette), two easy games (Rutgers, at St. John's) and a toss-up match against Cincinnati. Clearly, the eight days of rest could do the Orange some good.

WEEKLY RESET-Games to Watch

Saturday, February 14

Georgetown at No. 22 Syracuse, No. 1 Connecticut at Seton Hall, Cincinnati at No. 4 Pittsburgh

For both Syracuse and Georgetown, this game is huge. For Syracuse, the stakes are mentioned above. For Georgetown, a loss means a 4-8 in-conference record—to get to 9-9, the Hoyas would need to take care of business against DePaul, St. John's and South Florida, then win two of three against No. 7 Louisville, No. 12 Marquette and No. 13 Villanova. For a team that has struggled of late, that's practically a death sentence.

For Seton Hall, this is the chance to make believers out of everyone. The Pirates started 0-6 in conference play, with overtime losses to Providence and Villanova. But Seton Hall has won five straight—yet only Georgetown qualifies as a decent win. A victory over Connecticut would put Seton Hall at 6-6 in-conference, and very much in the NCAA tournament discussion. Perhaps Connecticut, fresh off the Syracuse win and with Pittsburgh looming Monday, comes in groggy?

Cincinnati, meanwhile, has a chance to solidify a tournament bid with a win over Pittsburgh. The Bearcats are 7-5 in conference play, but a bit light on quality wins (it would help their case if Georgetown rallies—Cincinnati beat the Hoyas twice). Winning at Pitt is a tall order, however.

Monday, February 16

No. 4 Pittsburgh at No. 1 Connecticut

Don't plan on a high-scoring affair—these two teams are among the best in both defense and rebounding. If Pitt center DeJuan Blair stays out of foul trouble, Pitt could give Connecticut a tough time. Should be a classic Big East battle.

Wednesday, February 18

Providence at No. 7 Louisville

Is Providence for real? Nobody knows. The Friars beat Seton Hall and Cincinnati twice, but all three wins came before those two began playing well. West Virginia crushed Providence by 27, and the Friars lost early this season to Northeastern, of all teams. Still, at 7-5 in the Big East (likely 8-5 by Wednesday—Providence plays Rutgers on Saturday), Providence has a chance to clinch a .500 record in the toughest conference in basketball and earn a signature win all at once. That should punch their NCAA ticket.

While the Yankees have never enjoyed a season devoid of sidebar distractions, this is no simple George Steinbrenner outburst or Reggie Jackson taunt. It is a perfect storm of controversy that will hover over the baseball season and any success or failure New York has.

Rodriguez was supposed to be the clean power hitter to overtake the villainous Barry Bonds and restore the home run record to the side of liberty and justice. He is baseball's highest-paid player, and by a wide margin. And despite all of his individual accomplishments, he's never managed to lead his team to a World Series title—and his team is supposed to win that championship every year.

In other words, Alex Rodriguez is set to be the story for the Yankees over the next several years—for good or ill. Rodriguez is just 209 home runs from Barry Bonds, who hit 762. Considering that Rodriguez, over his past five seasons, hit 208 home runs, reaching that milestone sometime in 2014 or 2015 (allowing for some regression as he ages) was a reasonable goal—and fit with the statistical pleasure fans of all teams would get from seeing the clean Rodriguez soar past tainted figures like Rafael Palmeiro, Mark McGwire and eventually Bonds.

For Yankee fans in particular, the already cool devotion to Rodriguez will become even chillier, with a bigger reason to cite distaste than the absence of a world championship. Of course, the Bronx faithful have displayed the capacity to forgive steroid transgressions before—witness Jason Giambi turning boos into Moustache Day with a simple turnaround in his performance. But Giambi was likable and real—Rodriguez isn't.

This fan perspective is vital for what it means for Rodriguez, the Yankees and Major League Baseball as a whole. For Rodriguez, assuming this positive test isn't some mistake, an immediate apology and full acknowledgement must take place. (Honestly, in this environment, even if it is a mistake, he's probably best off coming clean, assuming he can't definitively prove his innocence.) Witness Giambi's restoration, and to a large extent, Andy Pettitte's—then contrast that with the demonization of both Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens.

If Rodriguez wants any chance at restoring even a part of his place in baseball history, he'll come clean. Some won't forgive him, regardless—but many will applaud his willingness to take responsibility. Add in a World Series title—and the Yankees are bound to win one with him sooner or later—and steroids can be part of the story of his baseball life, rather than all of it.

As for the Yankees, they need to wait and see how Rodriguez handles this before they make their plans. If he refuses to speak out publicly, the team needs to put pressure on him to do so by referring all questions about it to Rodriguez himself. Nothing less than the Yankee brand is at stake here. And with Rodriguez still owed hundreds of millions of dollars, it isn't as if they can trade him—the main reason he re-signed in New York is that no one else would pay him nearly that much, when he was presumed clean.

Remember: Derek Jeter is turning 35 in 2009 and showing signs of slowing down. Rodriguez's pursuit of the home run crown was supposed to be the game-in, game-out center of Yankee marketing for much of the next decade. With home runs and steroids so inextricably linked in the country's mind, that drama will disappear. When it happens to a player like Rodriguez, who unlike Bonds was never loved by his own fans beforehand, it is hard to imagine that pursuit at the center of a successful marketing campaign. Worse yet, it will likely overshadow anything the Yankees try to put in his place.

For Major League Baseball, the answer is simple, yet practically impossible. The Rodriguez result came from a 2003 sample of steroid tests to determine, in effect, if baseball had a steroids problem. The answer turned out to be yes: 104 players tested positive. They need to release those other 103 names, now in the hands of prosecutors for the Bonds case and certain to come out, bit by bit, over the coming months anyway. The league should get ahead of the story.

The Players Association won't like it—indeed, this list was supposed to be destroyed as soon as it was collated in 2003—but the labor union is doing a disservice to the overwhelming majority of its members by failing to release the names. Now, everyone is a presumed cheat, and the magical pleasure of seeing a player grow from mediocrity to superstar carries with it an implied asterisk.

But even if the names leak out slowly, Major League Baseball will recover from the steroids scandal just as surely as it did the strike, the Black Sox scandal and innumerable other problems throughout history. The Yankees, too, will eventually move past the A-Rod era. Alex Rodriguez, without ever having testified under oath (which is what tripped up Barry Bonds), should be fine, too. All of them will suffer from this, however.

The only winners from this story are likely to be Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire and any other player who has already been tarred by the steroids scandal. As more and more names get linked to steroids, the public is going to move from castigating a few players for playing on an unlevel field to blaming baseball itself.

But consecutive victories this past week at Providence and Louisville illustrated just why Connecticut is the best bet to be the last team standing, not just in the Big East, but the nation. First, they scored 94 points and ran past Providence, 94-61. Two days later, they played shutdown defense and crushed Louisville, 68-51. In other words, Connecticut does everything well—they have more ways to beat you than any other team.

A look at Connecticut's team stats tells part of the stories. The Huskies trail only Syracuse in field goal percentage, at just below 49 percent—but Connecticut is tops in the Big East in opponent's field goal percentage, at less than 38 percent. Connecticut leads the conference in rebounding margin. The team averages 7.4 blocks per game—second in the country. Even Connecticut's assist-to-turnover ratio is fourth in the conference, and has steadily improved in conjunction with the maturation of freshman point guard Kemba Walker.

In short, the only thing Connecticut doesn't do exceptionally well is force turnovers. But if a team can score and defend at will, rebound misses and block shots, then forcing turnovers would merely be a luxury.

Connecticut's results reinforce the team's master-of-all-trades ability. In non-conference play, the Huskies outscored Gonzaga, 88-83, and out-defended Wisconsin, 76-57. In conference, Connecticut has 10 wins—four times scoring in the 60s, twice in the 70s, and four times in the 80s. In other words, there isn't a pace a team can play that hurts Connecticut.

Individual matchups provide still more evidence of Connecticut's diversity. Few teams have a center 7-foot-3, as Connecticut does in Hasheem Thabeet, the best shot-blocker in the Big East. But should a team's center be more of a hulking physical presence, Connecticut can counter him, too, with the remarkably consistent power forward Jeff Adrien, who has scored between 12 and 18 points in every conference game this season, six times also reaching double figures in rebounding.

As a result, Connecticut also has little trouble scoring inside. But should a team attempt to collapse on the interior defensively, Connecticut can burn you from the perimeter—both A. J. Price and Kemba Walker shoot better than 40 percent from three-point range. So there is no individual strategy that can foil Connecticut, either.

Price and Walker are the two major reasons that, incredible as it may seem, Connecticut is likely to get better as the season continues. Price, who was a All-Big East team selection last season, tore his anterior cruciate ligament in the NCAA tournament.

His play upon returning this year was inconsistent at first; seldom did Price have two consecutive good games. But though he's averaging just 12.2 points per game on the season, he's at 17.1 over his last eight contests, with seven double-figure scoring games in the mix. He appears less tentative offensively, and has improved defensively.

Walker, a highly touted freshman, appears to have figured out how to harness his electric speed and also hold on to the ball. Walker had 34 assists and 33 turnovers in Connecticut's first 14 games, an unacceptable 1-to-1 ratio. In his last eight games, however, Walker dished out 26 assists and committed just 13 turnovers, a 2-to-1 ratio that would rank among the conference leaders.

Only Georgetown has beaten Connecticut this season, and the loss should serve as a cautionary tale to just how difficult beating the Huskies will be. The Hoyas shot the ball exceptionally well, particularly from three-point range, limited turnovers and played exceptional defense. Connecticut had a bad night shooting the three, Thabeet scored just four points and the team had just six assists and 17 turnovers.

Was this a perfect storm? There hasn't been a single game since where most, let alone all, of those factors have come together. And if Price and Walker keep improving, it probably won't happen again.

WEEKLY RESET—Games to Watch

Saturday, Feb. 7

Cincinnati at Georgetown, Providence at West Virginia, No. 20 Syracuse at No. 16 Villanova, Notre Dame at No. 12 UCLA, Michigan at No. 1 Connecticut

Just clear your Saturday, and make good use of the Tivo. Cincinnati is coming off of a win over Notre Dame to get to 5-5 in conference play. A win at Georgetown and the Bearcats have to be considered candidates for the NCAA tournament. Georgetown, meanwhile, needs the win over Cincinnati to get to within a game of .500 in conference play—the mark they'll likely need for an NCAA bid, given their victories over Connecticut, Memphis and Syracuse.

Providence is 6-4 in the conference, but has very few quality wins, and that 94-61 loss to Connecticut coupled with an ugly loss to Northeastern makes their climb steeper. A win at West Virginia doesn't guarantee anything—but with remaining games against South Florida and two with Rutgers, it makes a 10-8 conference record likely, which should be enough for the NCAA tournament.

Villanova and Syracuse is the marquee matchup of the day. Villanova, with a win, can open up a two-game lead in the loss column over Syracuse for the fourth seed in the Big East. (Remember, the top four seeds get double-byes this year for the Big East tournament, and only need to win three games to earn the conference's automatic bid.)  Meanwhile, a win by the Orange ties Syracuse for that final double-bye spot.

As for Notre Dame, the loss to Cincinnati put the Irish in extremely dire straits for an NCAA berth. With seven conference losses already, and 9-9 the likely minimum standard for the tournament, the Irish will need every quality win they can get—especially with five reasonably difficult conference games left on the schedule: hosting Louisville and Villanova, traveling to Providence, West Virginia and Connecticut.

Connecticut hosts a Michigan team that has struggled of late, but was a giant-killer earlier this year, upending both UCLA and Duke.

Tuesday, Feb. 10

No. 8 Marquette at No. 16 Villanova

The most exciting game of the week features the conference's best guard tandem in Marquette against what is probably a close second from Villanova. Expect lots of three-pointers and pressure defense. This one smells like Marquette's first conference loss—the game is being played on the Villanova campus, and that place gets loud.

Wednesday, Feb. 11

No. 20 Syracuse at No. 1 Connecticut

Hard to imagine Syracuse can defend well enough to knock off the Huskies in their own building. But Syracuse has the athletes and shooters to stay with Connecticut, especially if Connecticut has an off night offensively—the Orange shoot nearly 50 percent from the field.

But few expected those teams to include Georgetown and Notre Dame, both ranked in the ESPN/USA Today Top 25. No. 25 Georgetown has the likely Big East freshman of the year in Greg Monroe, while No. 24 Notre Dame is led by the conference's likely player of the year, Luke Harangody.

Still, both teams find themselves in a fair amount of trouble, given their recent losses. At 3-5 in conference play, with at least a .500 record likely needed for admission, both the Hoyas and the Fighting Irish have an uphill battle.

For Notre Dame, the problem is two-fold. Most of their struggles come from an inability to stop anyone defensively. The Irish allow teams to shoot 43 percent from the field, and 33 percent from three-point range. They don't turn the ball over much, but they don't force many turnovers either, negating that advantage. Against the best teams, that means Notre Dame needs Harangody to score in bunches, and his teammates to follow suit, just to keep up.

But over the past four games, all against ranked teams, Harangody's teammates simply haven't been up to the task. Even Notre Dame's unparalleled three-point shooting—at a ridiculous 40 percent for the year—has been around 30 percent over the past two games.

While losses at No. 7 Louisville and at No. 15 Syracuse, followed by back-to-back defeats at home to No. 2 Connecticut and No. 8 Marquette, are all excusable, the Irish have to put some wins on the board to be around for the NCAA tournament. Right now Notre Dame's only quality wins are over No. 12 Texas and a sinking Georgetown team—and that is balanced out by an ugly loss to St. John's.

If a 9-9 conference record is the minimum standard for tournament admission, Notre Dame will need to run the table in winnable games at Cincinnati and hosting South Florida, Rutgers and St. John's. But that only gets them to seven wins. To get to 9-9, Notre Dame will need two victories in games at West Virginia and Providence, both tough, or from Top 25 opponents Pitt, Connecticut, Louisville and No. 21 Villanova. The first two are top-five teams Notre Dame faces on the road, the second two are playing as well as anyone in the conference.

Still, Notre Dame's problems appear to pale in comparison to Georgetown's. The Hoyas had faced down what promised to be the most challenging part of their schedule, starting 3-2 in the league with wins over Providence, Syracuse and Connecticut. But in their past three games, losses at home to West Virginia then at Seton Hall and Cincinnati, Georgetown has played as poorly as at any time during Coach John Thompson III's tenure.

Despite a total inability to rebound the basketball, Georgetown had been succeeding on the strength of strong shooting and tremendous defense. But over the past three games, both of these strengths have become weaknesses.

On the defensive end, Georgetown had allowed teams to shoot just 38.1 percent prior to the last three games. These included some of the best offensive teams in the country, including Connecticut, Duke and Notre Dame. But Cincinnati, Seton Hall and West Virginia have combined to shoot nearly 46 percent—despite all three residing among the bottom six in the conference in accuracy.

Georgetown's offense has been a mirror image of that turnaround. A team that had been shooting just under 49 percent from the field has managed to shoot a shade above 37 percent in the last three games. The Hoyas have been even worse from three-point range—a miserable 18.1 percent.

For the Hoyas, more than with most teams, their offense sets up their defense. With no rebounding to speak of, more missed shots lead to more transition opportunities for their opponents—by far the easiest way to score against a first-rate half-court defense.

And an added problem for Georgetown is the ankle injury suffered by Dajuan Summers in Wednesday night's game. Summers is Georgetown's best and most experienced player, but on a conference call Thursday, John Thompson III said Summers is doubtful for Georgetown's next game. If Summers misses any significant time, a team without much depth would get even thinner.

One thing Georgetown does have in its favor is its remaining schedule. Five games should be considered extremely winnable: home games against Rutgers, Cincinnati and DePaul, along with road trips to South Florida and St. John's. Should Georgetown win all five, only one victory over their remaining ranked opponents—Syracuse, Louisville, Villanova, and two against Marquette—would get the Hoyas to 9-9. Considering the team has already notched quality wins against Syracuse, Connecticut, and out-of-conference Memphis, that should be enough for an NCAA bid.

It isn't clear right now, however, if Georgetown can count on a victory against anyone.

WEEKLY RESET--Games to watch

Saturday, January 31

Notre Dame at Pitt, Georgetown at Marquette

The struggling Irish and Hoyas can cure a lot of ills with wins here. The key to Notre Dame-Pitt is the matchup of Luke Harangody and Pitt's DeJuan Blair—a battle of the league's two best rebounders by far. For Georgetown, scoring on the interior is key, even if their three-point shooting returns—the guard-heavy Eagles simply don't defend the inside well, and this could be Greg Monroe's coming-out party.

Monday, February 2

Connecticut at Louisville

This meeting of the two finest defensive teams in the Big East—Connecticut allows 38.3 percent shooting, Louisville allows 38.4 percent—promises to be a low-scoring affair if Louisville has its way. The Cardinals are undefeated in conference play, but are outclassed by Connecticut on the offensive end. The scary part about Connecticut is that the Huskies are 19-1—but they've yet to get consistent offense out of guard A. J. Price or center Hasheem Thabeet, and freshman point guard Kemba Walker has only recently cut down on his turnovers (three in his last 53 minutes on the court). In other words: they are ranked second in the country, and they have room to grow.

Wednesday, February 4

West Virginia at Syracuse, Notre Dame at Cincinnati

A reality check for both West Virginia and Cincinnati—both teams have four wins in the Big East, but the only win of any significance for both teams is: Georgetown. A reality check for the Hoyas, too—should both teams win, it makes their recent slide more palatable. Doesn't account for that loss to Seton Hall, though.