The largest conference tournament for the best conference in the country begins Tuesday at Madison Square Garden with the bottom eight members of the Big East squaring off. Incredibly, not a single one of the eight has an NCAA tournament bid locked up—in fact, it’s like that only three of them can get a bid without an extended conference tournament run.

Still, many of those teams needing extended runs are quite talented—both Georgetown and Notre Dame have multiple quality wins, with the Hoyas having knocked off four of the nation’s top twenty teams. So as sixteen teams head to MSG, sixteen separate choose-your-own-adventures await, with one automatic bid for whoever captures the Big East tournament.

Top-seeded Louisville, along with Big East seeds 2-4, needs just three wins to capture the Big East title. If the Cardinals win one or two of those games, they will most likely end up with a two seed. If Louisville wins the Big East tournament, a one seed will come to Rick Pitino’s crew.

For second-seeded Pittsburgh, it is hard to imagine losing a one-seed, regardless of how they play. One supposes that if Rutgers finds a way to beat both Notre Dame, its Tuesday opponent, West Virginia, its Wednesday opponent, then shock Pitt, the loss might be enough of a knock on the Panthers’s RPI of 1 overall to make Sunday less than a fait accompli. But figure there’s little adventure for the Panthers.

Third seed Connecticut has a chance at a number-one seed with a tournament win. Should the Huskies choose only to win two games, a two seed is likely waiting for them, particularly if Duke, Oklahoma, Memphis and Michigan State all win their respective conference tournaments. If Connecticut is knocked off in the quarterfinals by an unlikely opponent, the committee could punish them with a three-seed, but both the loss and the result of such a loss are unlikely.

Fourth-seeded Villanova has a chance to get as high as a two seed if the Wildcats win the conference tournament. Should Villanova lose in the quarterfinals, the seed could fall as low as five. Chances are a win or two gets Villanova a three seed.

Now it starts to get interesting. Marquette is a five seed in the Big East tournament, meaning that the Golden Eagles need four victories to win the tournament, as do the other teams seeded 5-8. Marquette needs to show the committee that even without starting point guard Dominic James, who was lost for the season due to injury, that it is an elite team. Several late losses plus an injury could land Marquette a 6-7 seed. But with a strong Big East run, Marquette could secure as high as a three seed—a monumental difference.

Syracuse has been an elite team since Andy Rautins and Arinze Onuaku returned to form. Should the Orange run through the Big East tournament, a four-seed or even a three could be the reward. But with an early loss, the most Syracuse can hope for is probably a six seed.

Big East seven seed West Virginia is the last of the conference’s NCAA locks, at 21-10, 10-8 in conference, with a strong out-of-conference schedule. Still, the Mountaineers look headed for an 7-8 seed in the NCAAs, which means a likely second-round matchup with a top seed. With a pair of wins, including one over second-seeded Pitt, the Mountaineers can secure a 5-6 seed. With a tournament victory, West Virginia can still reach a four seed.

For eighth-seeded Providence, nothing less than a tournament bid is on the line. Despite a 10-8 in-conference record, the Friars, based on a poor overall schedule, have an RPI of just 70. Two wins, the second against Louisville, are a must—three are probably necessary for Providence to be confident on Selection Sunday.

Seeds 9-16 need to win five games to win the Big East tournament. The nine seed, Cincinnati, managed to play its way out of the tournament. The Bearcats were 8-7 in the Big East, but managed to lose to both South Florida and Seton Hall to blow a sure chance at a winning Big East record. Now Cincinnati needs wins over DePaul, Providence and Louisville to even enter NCAA discussion. Win four, and Cincinnati is likely in. Win the tournament, and the Bearcats probably earn a 9-10 seed.

Ten seed Notre Dame’s seven-game midseason losing streak should be put in perspective—six of the seven losses came to teams ranked 21 or higher. Still, the streak left Notre Dame with an overall mark of 17-13, 8-10 in the Big East. NCAA consideration starts with wins over Rutgers and West Virginia, and leads to a Fightin’ Irish bid with a win over Pitt. Should Notre Dame win the tournament, an 8-9 seed probably awaits in the NCAA tournament.

Eleven seed Seton Hall has only one path to the tournament, given an RPI of 100—win all five. Even a tournament victory likely means an NCAA 12-13 seed.

Twelve seed Georgetown, despite a respectable RPI of 49, needs to do a lot of work in the Big East tournament, mostly due to a horrific late loss to St. John’s. The way Georgetown has played since a 10-1 start, it is hard to imagine the Hoyas have the 3-4 wins in them necessary to make the NCAAs. Still, with wins over St. John’s, Villanova and Marquette in the Big East tournament, the committee will have to take another look. A fourth win would likely come at Connecticut’s expense and seal a bid. Win five and Georgetown’s RPI could lift them to a 6-7 seed.

And the adventure for seeds 13-16 is just being there. The Big East never before invited the bottom four seeds in the expanded sixteen-team league. Now, for the first time, even lowly, winless DePaul, at least for a day, can dream NCAA tournament dreams.

With just over a week left until the Big East tournament, however, no less than 11 teams fall under these three categories, and nine of them, should current trends hold, are poised to post 10-8 marks. This will put the NCAA tournament selection committee in the position of either denying a Big East team with a winning conference record a bid (not unprecedented, but very uncommon), or setting a record for bids by a single conference.

Simply put, never has a college basketball conference had so many teams with so much to play for so late in the season.

The two teams at the bottom of the remaining NCAA hopefuls, Notre Dame and Georgetown, could present the biggest challenges of all. Notre Dame has won four of five, and by beating either Villanova or Syracuse, stands a good chance of being a .500 Big East team with a pretty good claim on a tenth bid from the conference.

The Hoyas, meanwhile, have some work to do—but by beating Villanova on Saturday, then winning easy games against St. John’s and DePaul, would run their conference mark to 8-10. With Georgetown playing the third most difficult schedule in the country, and posting wins over Connecticut, Memphis, Syracuse (and potentially Villanova), a few wins in the Big East tournament would make it nearly impossible for the selection committee to ignore, yes, an 11^th Big East team.

While both of these teams will need to pull an upset along the way, note in both cases it would take just a single upset to put the chaotic 11-team scenario in motion. What is remarkable is that for the other nine teams to get to .500 or better, it requires them to simply hold serve.

Cincinnati is 18-10 overall, 8-7 in conference play, with games at Syracuse, at South Florida, and home against Seton Hall. Should Cincinnati win the latter two, as it should, the committee would certainly have to admit a 20-11, 10-8 Bearcats team.

West Virginia just lost to Cincinnati, but at 19-9, 8-7, wins over South Florida and DePaul should get the Mountaineers to 21-10, 10-8 easily, even if they lose to Louisville in their regular-season finale.

Syracuse already has 20 wins, along with an 8-7 conference record, and hosts Cincinnati and Rutgers before traveling to Marquette. Syracuse should beat both its home opponents—even if the Orange split with them, 9-9 should be plenty to get into the NCAA tournament, with non-conference wins over Memphis, Kansas and Florida.

And Providence, a team with probably the weakest overall NCAA resume, managed two feats Wednesday night—a win clinched a .500 record in the Big East, and the victory came over Pittsburgh, giving the Friars a win over the No. 1 team in the country. A win at Rutgers Saturday would guarantee Providence a 10-8 record in-conference to go with 18 total wins—plenty to go dancing, it would seem.

And the top five conference teams—Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Marquette and Villanova—all have clinched at least 11-7 Big East records already, and would be in the NCAA tournament if they failed to win another game.

Should all these scenarios play out, the committee would always have the option of knocking out the Big East teams that play the poorest in their conference tournament. Still, such a move will certainly result in one and perhaps several qualified conference members being left out.

WEEKLY RESET

Saturday, February 28

Georgetown at Villanova, Notre Dame at Connecticut

Georgetown needs a victory over Villanova to have any chance at an at-large bid, while Notre Dame’s recent surge, aided by a victory over Connecticut, could put the Irish into the field. Neither team has an easy task, however.

Sunday, March 1

Marquette at Louisville

An already difficult assignment—beating Louisville at home—became that much tougher when Marquette lost Dominic James, a four-year starter, for the season to a foot injury. James, a quick guard who can get to the basket, is the best-known antidote to the Cardinals’s suffocating defense. Discovering whether his fellow Golden Eagles have enough firepower without him to be a threat in the NCAA tournament will be part of the fun in this matchup.

Monday, March 2

Villanova at Notre Dame

While many of the Big East games are crushing defensive wars of attrition, this one, well, won’t be. The Wildcats and Irish love to shoot, and you’ll see plenty of fast-paced action and a Notre Dame crowd that knows just how much the Irish need another quality win.

Wednesday, March 4

Marquette at Pittsburgh

First Louisville, then Pittsburgh. Considering James hurt his foot shortly into last Wednesday’s game against Connecticut, that means the Golden Eagles had to play without their starting point guard and floor leader against the three best defensive teams in the Big East.

Connecticut coach Jim Calhoun, whose Huskies handed the Orange their latest defeat, 63-49, Wednesday night, speculated that the Big East Conference's brutally deep schedule was to blame.

"Teams are getting hurt in the conference's wash cycle," Calhoun told reporters in a press conference following the game. "The league is filled with good teams who have not-so-good records right now."

But for Syracuse, good teams were no barrier to success early in the season—the Orange have wins this season over non-conference foes Memphis, Kansas and Florida. Instead, it is a pair of injuries to center Arinze Onuaku and Andy Rautins that are both slowing down the Syracuse attack and opening the Orange defense, already the weak spot of the team, even further.

The knee tendinitis Onuaku is suffering from has been hurting Syracuse at both ends of the floor. The center is gamely playing through it, but the results have taken what promised to be a breakout season for the 6-foot-9 junior and made it into a lackluster one.

Prior to the 1-5 skid, Onuaku averaged just below 13 points and eight rebounds per game, scoring 17 or more on five occasions. Over the past six games, his averages are 5.2 points and six rebounds per game, and he's scored 0, 4, 4 and 4 points in the past four contests. More to the point, his mobility is limited, and he can't really jump.

This obviously hurts Syracuse on the defensive end as well. Onuaku had been averaging nearly two blocks per game—over the last six games, he has a total of three blocks. Even worse, that means players can penetrate on Syracuse with impunity, which is problematic for a team whose perimeter players don't move that well laterally, the notable exception being point guard Johnny Flynn.

The ankle injury to Andy Rautins is causing similar problems, especially at the offensive end. Rautins had been shooting just under 40 percent from three-point range until the injury occurred. Since then, however, he's just 13-for-47, or less than 28 percent. And with the ankle problem affecting his quickness, teams have no reason to back off of him defensively, while exploiting him at the other end of the court.

The resulting chasms haven't been filled by either the lackluster replacements off the Syracuse bench, nor from Syracuse's two stars, Flynn and Eric Devendorf. Onuaku is key for a team that has only Rick Jackson, a space filler with no offensive game to speak of, and the undersized Kristof Ongenaet to fill in for Onuaku. Meanwhile, the highly touted Mookie Jones, who could have spelled Rautins, was lost for the year due to injury as well.

For Flynn, the immensely talented point guard, playing every minute while trying to do all of the scoring and run the offense has been asking too much of him. His field goal percentage has dropped from 49 percent in Syracuse's first 19 games to less than 39 percent during Syracuse's 1-5 skid. It's no surprise that his legs wouldn't be under his shots—he's played 231 of a possible 240 minutes during the slump.

Eric Devendorf, meanwhile, has continued scoring. But the lack of offensive options has forced him to try to create his own shots, with disastrous turnover results. Devendorf has averaged better than five turnovers per game, an astounding total for someone who isn't even the main ball-handler on his team. He had an astounding nine turnovers against Providence—not a particularly good defensive team. He's clearly trying to do too much.

Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim is trying to do the best with what he has—and being a Hall of Famer, he does find some openings. Knowing his team can't handle a strong post player, he threw quick double-team traps at both Connecticut's Jeff Adrien and Villanova's Dante Cunningham, with varying degrees of success, particularly against Adrien.

But Saturday's matchup with Georgetown seems designed to exploit Syracuse's current weaknesses. The Hoyas have a tremendously mobile center in Greg Monroe—not only that, but if Syracuse attempts to double-team him, Monroe, the best-passing center in the Big East, will quickly find the open man. A quick point guard in Chris Wright means that Jonny Flynn will be occupied at both ends of the court. And defensively, Syracuse doesn't have answers for both DaJuan Summers and Austin Freeman.

A loss would drop Syracuse to 6-7 in the conference, with 9-9 likely needed to earn an NCAA berth. The Orange then have eight days off before completing their schedule with two difficult games (Villanova, at Marquette), two easy games (Rutgers, at St. John's) and a toss-up match against Cincinnati. Clearly, the eight days of rest could do the Orange some good.

WEEKLY RESET-Games to Watch

Saturday, February 14

Georgetown at No. 22 Syracuse, No. 1 Connecticut at Seton Hall, Cincinnati at No. 4 Pittsburgh

For both Syracuse and Georgetown, this game is huge. For Syracuse, the stakes are mentioned above. For Georgetown, a loss means a 4-8 in-conference record—to get to 9-9, the Hoyas would need to take care of business against DePaul, St. John's and South Florida, then win two of three against No. 7 Louisville, No. 12 Marquette and No. 13 Villanova. For a team that has struggled of late, that's practically a death sentence.

For Seton Hall, this is the chance to make believers out of everyone. The Pirates started 0-6 in conference play, with overtime losses to Providence and Villanova. But Seton Hall has won five straight—yet only Georgetown qualifies as a decent win. A victory over Connecticut would put Seton Hall at 6-6 in-conference, and very much in the NCAA tournament discussion. Perhaps Connecticut, fresh off the Syracuse win and with Pittsburgh looming Monday, comes in groggy?

Cincinnati, meanwhile, has a chance to solidify a tournament bid with a win over Pittsburgh. The Bearcats are 7-5 in conference play, but a bit light on quality wins (it would help their case if Georgetown rallies—Cincinnati beat the Hoyas twice). Winning at Pitt is a tall order, however.

Monday, February 16

No. 4 Pittsburgh at No. 1 Connecticut

Don't plan on a high-scoring affair—these two teams are among the best in both defense and rebounding. If Pitt center DeJuan Blair stays out of foul trouble, Pitt could give Connecticut a tough time. Should be a classic Big East battle.

Wednesday, February 18

Providence at No. 7 Louisville

Is Providence for real? Nobody knows. The Friars beat Seton Hall and Cincinnati twice, but all three wins came before those two began playing well. West Virginia crushed Providence by 27, and the Friars lost early this season to Northeastern, of all teams. Still, at 7-5 in the Big East (likely 8-5 by Wednesday—Providence plays Rutgers on Saturday), Providence has a chance to clinch a .500 record in the toughest conference in basketball and earn a signature win all at once. That should punch their NCAA ticket.

But consecutive victories this past week at Providence and Louisville illustrated just why Connecticut is the best bet to be the last team standing, not just in the Big East, but the nation. First, they scored 94 points and ran past Providence, 94-61. Two days later, they played shutdown defense and crushed Louisville, 68-51. In other words, Connecticut does everything well—they have more ways to beat you than any other team.

A look at Connecticut's team stats tells part of the stories. The Huskies trail only Syracuse in field goal percentage, at just below 49 percent—but Connecticut is tops in the Big East in opponent's field goal percentage, at less than 38 percent. Connecticut leads the conference in rebounding margin. The team averages 7.4 blocks per game—second in the country. Even Connecticut's assist-to-turnover ratio is fourth in the conference, and has steadily improved in conjunction with the maturation of freshman point guard Kemba Walker.

In short, the only thing Connecticut doesn't do exceptionally well is force turnovers. But if a team can score and defend at will, rebound misses and block shots, then forcing turnovers would merely be a luxury.

Connecticut's results reinforce the team's master-of-all-trades ability. In non-conference play, the Huskies outscored Gonzaga, 88-83, and out-defended Wisconsin, 76-57. In conference, Connecticut has 10 wins—four times scoring in the 60s, twice in the 70s, and four times in the 80s. In other words, there isn't a pace a team can play that hurts Connecticut.

Individual matchups provide still more evidence of Connecticut's diversity. Few teams have a center 7-foot-3, as Connecticut does in Hasheem Thabeet, the best shot-blocker in the Big East. But should a team's center be more of a hulking physical presence, Connecticut can counter him, too, with the remarkably consistent power forward Jeff Adrien, who has scored between 12 and 18 points in every conference game this season, six times also reaching double figures in rebounding.

As a result, Connecticut also has little trouble scoring inside. But should a team attempt to collapse on the interior defensively, Connecticut can burn you from the perimeter—both A. J. Price and Kemba Walker shoot better than 40 percent from three-point range. So there is no individual strategy that can foil Connecticut, either.

Price and Walker are the two major reasons that, incredible as it may seem, Connecticut is likely to get better as the season continues. Price, who was a All-Big East team selection last season, tore his anterior cruciate ligament in the NCAA tournament.

His play upon returning this year was inconsistent at first; seldom did Price have two consecutive good games. But though he's averaging just 12.2 points per game on the season, he's at 17.1 over his last eight contests, with seven double-figure scoring games in the mix. He appears less tentative offensively, and has improved defensively.

Walker, a highly touted freshman, appears to have figured out how to harness his electric speed and also hold on to the ball. Walker had 34 assists and 33 turnovers in Connecticut's first 14 games, an unacceptable 1-to-1 ratio. In his last eight games, however, Walker dished out 26 assists and committed just 13 turnovers, a 2-to-1 ratio that would rank among the conference leaders.

Only Georgetown has beaten Connecticut this season, and the loss should serve as a cautionary tale to just how difficult beating the Huskies will be. The Hoyas shot the ball exceptionally well, particularly from three-point range, limited turnovers and played exceptional defense. Connecticut had a bad night shooting the three, Thabeet scored just four points and the team had just six assists and 17 turnovers.

Was this a perfect storm? There hasn't been a single game since where most, let alone all, of those factors have come together. And if Price and Walker keep improving, it probably won't happen again.

WEEKLY RESET—Games to Watch

Saturday, Feb. 7

Cincinnati at Georgetown, Providence at West Virginia, No. 20 Syracuse at No. 16 Villanova, Notre Dame at No. 12 UCLA, Michigan at No. 1 Connecticut

Just clear your Saturday, and make good use of the Tivo. Cincinnati is coming off of a win over Notre Dame to get to 5-5 in conference play. A win at Georgetown and the Bearcats have to be considered candidates for the NCAA tournament. Georgetown, meanwhile, needs the win over Cincinnati to get to within a game of .500 in conference play—the mark they'll likely need for an NCAA bid, given their victories over Connecticut, Memphis and Syracuse.

Providence is 6-4 in the conference, but has very few quality wins, and that 94-61 loss to Connecticut coupled with an ugly loss to Northeastern makes their climb steeper. A win at West Virginia doesn't guarantee anything—but with remaining games against South Florida and two with Rutgers, it makes a 10-8 conference record likely, which should be enough for the NCAA tournament.

Villanova and Syracuse is the marquee matchup of the day. Villanova, with a win, can open up a two-game lead in the loss column over Syracuse for the fourth seed in the Big East. (Remember, the top four seeds get double-byes this year for the Big East tournament, and only need to win three games to earn the conference's automatic bid.)  Meanwhile, a win by the Orange ties Syracuse for that final double-bye spot.

As for Notre Dame, the loss to Cincinnati put the Irish in extremely dire straits for an NCAA berth. With seven conference losses already, and 9-9 the likely minimum standard for the tournament, the Irish will need every quality win they can get—especially with five reasonably difficult conference games left on the schedule: hosting Louisville and Villanova, traveling to Providence, West Virginia and Connecticut.

Connecticut hosts a Michigan team that has struggled of late, but was a giant-killer earlier this year, upending both UCLA and Duke.

Tuesday, Feb. 10

No. 8 Marquette at No. 16 Villanova

The most exciting game of the week features the conference's best guard tandem in Marquette against what is probably a close second from Villanova. Expect lots of three-pointers and pressure defense. This one smells like Marquette's first conference loss—the game is being played on the Villanova campus, and that place gets loud.

Wednesday, Feb. 11

No. 20 Syracuse at No. 1 Connecticut

Hard to imagine Syracuse can defend well enough to knock off the Huskies in their own building. But Syracuse has the athletes and shooters to stay with Connecticut, especially if Connecticut has an off night offensively—the Orange shoot nearly 50 percent from the field.