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	<title>Observer &#187; Cantina Bell</title>
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		<title>Observer &#187; Cantina Bell</title>
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		<title>Market Researcher Says Einhorn is Right, Diners Will Ring Cantina Bell</title>

		<comments>http://observer.com/2012/10/market-researcher-says-einhorn-is-right-diners-will-ring-cantina-bell/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Oct 2012 17:53:21 -0400</pubDate>
					<link>http://observer.com/2012/10/market-researcher-says-einhorn-is-right-diners-will-ring-cantina-bell/</link>
			<dc:creator>Patrick Clark</dc:creator>
				
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://observer.com/?p=267674</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p><div id="attachment_267696" class="wp-caption alignleft" style="width: 220px"><a href="http://observer.com/2012/10/market-researcher-says-einhorn-is-right-diners-will-ring-cantina-bell/bowl-bowl/" rel="attachment wp-att-267696"><img class=" wp-image-267696" title="bowl-bowl" src="http://nyoobserver.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/bowl-bowl.png?w=300" alt="" width="210" height="131" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Cantina Bell's Cantina Bowl</p></div></p>
<p><em>The Observer</em> <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CMG+Interactive#symbol=cmg;range=5d;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;">chuckled yesterday</a> when David Einhorn said he was betting against Chipotle during a presentation at the Value Investing Conference, not at the Greenlight Capital founder's thesis, but because he cited Taco Bell's new "upscale" Cantina Bell chain as a threat to Chipotle's business.</p>
<p>We have a hard time thinking of Taco Bell as anything but a purveyor of "<a href="http://www.npr.org/2011/01/25/133218485/Taco-Bell-Faces-Lawsuit-Over-Seasoned-Beef">seasoned beef</a>" (<a href="http://www.tacobell.com/Company/newsreleases/Voluntary_Lawsuit_Withdrawal_1011">sorry</a>) but market researcher YouGov suggests we may be in the minority. According to YouGov's BrandIndex, the South of the Border chain has improved its reputation since introducing the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/david-einhorn-short-chipotle-2012-10?op=1">Cantina Bell</a> line in July.</p>
<p>Of course, Taco Bell's score merely recovered to where it was in April, and probably (definitely) no one should be following Mr. Einhorn into his Chipotle short based on the below. Still:</p>
<p><a href="http://observer.com/2012/10/market-researcher-says-einhorn-is-right-diners-will-ring-cantina-bell/tacobellgraphfinal/" rel="attachment wp-att-267677"><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-267677" title="tacobellgraphFINAL" src="http://nyoobserver.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/tacobellgraphfinal.jpg" alt="" width="550" height="360" /></a></p>
<p>Eat/invest at your own discretion.</p>
]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><div id="attachment_267696" class="wp-caption alignleft" style="width: 220px"><a href="http://observer.com/2012/10/market-researcher-says-einhorn-is-right-diners-will-ring-cantina-bell/bowl-bowl/" rel="attachment wp-att-267696"><img class=" wp-image-267696" title="bowl-bowl" src="http://nyoobserver.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/bowl-bowl.png?w=300" alt="" width="210" height="131" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Cantina Bell's Cantina Bowl</p></div></p>
<p><em>The Observer</em> <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CMG+Interactive#symbol=cmg;range=5d;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;">chuckled yesterday</a> when David Einhorn said he was betting against Chipotle during a presentation at the Value Investing Conference, not at the Greenlight Capital founder's thesis, but because he cited Taco Bell's new "upscale" Cantina Bell chain as a threat to Chipotle's business.</p>
<p>We have a hard time thinking of Taco Bell as anything but a purveyor of "<a href="http://www.npr.org/2011/01/25/133218485/Taco-Bell-Faces-Lawsuit-Over-Seasoned-Beef">seasoned beef</a>" (<a href="http://www.tacobell.com/Company/newsreleases/Voluntary_Lawsuit_Withdrawal_1011">sorry</a>) but market researcher YouGov suggests we may be in the minority. According to YouGov's BrandIndex, the South of the Border chain has improved its reputation since introducing the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/david-einhorn-short-chipotle-2012-10?op=1">Cantina Bell</a> line in July.</p>
<p>Of course, Taco Bell's score merely recovered to where it was in April, and probably (definitely) no one should be following Mr. Einhorn into his Chipotle short based on the below. Still:</p>
<p><a href="http://observer.com/2012/10/market-researcher-says-einhorn-is-right-diners-will-ring-cantina-bell/tacobellgraphfinal/" rel="attachment wp-att-267677"><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-267677" title="tacobellgraphFINAL" src="http://nyoobserver.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/tacobellgraphfinal.jpg" alt="" width="550" height="360" /></a></p>
<p>Eat/invest at your own discretion.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
	
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		<title>Chipotle Shares Head South on David Einhorn&#8217;s Short Bet</title>

		<comments>http://observer.com/2012/10/chipotle-shares-head-south-on-david-einhorns-short-bet/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Oct 2012 14:07:59 -0400</pubDate>
					<link>http://observer.com/2012/10/chipotle-shares-head-south-on-david-einhorns-short-bet/</link>
			<dc:creator>Patrick Clark</dc:creator>
				
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://observer.com/?p=267042</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://observer.com/2012/10/chipotle-shares-head-south-on-david-einhorns-short-bet/einhorn/" rel="attachment wp-att-267048"><img class="alignleft size-medium wp-image-267048" title="einhorn" src="http://nyoobserver.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/einhorn.jpg?w=300" alt="" width="300" height="175" /></a>Chipotle shares fell as much as 7.2 percent after Greenlight Capital founder David Einhorn said he was <a href="http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/10/02/einhorn-bets-against-chipotle/">betting against the company</a> today at the Value Investing Conference.</p>
<p>That the stock fell on Mr. Einhorn's pronouncement is not surprising—as <em>The Wall Street Journal </em>reported earlier this month, markets typically respond to Mr. Einhorn's public comments on companies as copycats pile into his bets. Indeed, the <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443720204578002362100327312.html?KEYWORDS=einhorn">Einhorn Effect</a> is greater when the hedge fund manager takes a negative view of a company, with a median same-day decline of 4.9 percent on the nine shorts <em>The Journal </em>included in its study.<!--more-->Chipotle, Mr. Einhorn reasoned, is vulnerable to competition—specifically, from Taco Bell's planned upscale chain. That logic is convincing enough, but maybe ... unappetizing? Business Insider has a <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/david-einhorn-short-chipotle-2012-10?op=1">preview of the new chain</a>, Cantina Bell, and the pictures are perfectly nice. It's just that we've maybe eaten too many 39 cent tacos in our day to fully credit the idea of Taco Bell heading north.</p>
<p>Mr. Einhorn said he remained bearish on Green Mountain Coffee Rosters, a bet he made famous with his <a href="http://observer.com/2012/05/how-about-a-gaap-uccino-to-go-with-those-jelly-donuts/gaap-uccino/">presentation</a> at the Value Investing Conference last year, and that he ws long Cigna and General Motors. Those shares also moved with Mr. Einhorn's comments, <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecchia/2012/10/02/the-growing-power-of-david-einhorn-chipotle-tanks-as-gm-rebounds-hard-in-minutes/">according to Forbes</a>.</p>
<p>Chipotle shares rebounded after Mr. Einhorn's comments, and are down <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CMG+Interactive#symbol=cmg;range=1d;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;">4.2 percent</a>.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://observer.com/2012/10/chipotle-shares-head-south-on-david-einhorns-short-bet/einhorn/" rel="attachment wp-att-267048"><img class="alignleft size-medium wp-image-267048" title="einhorn" src="http://nyoobserver.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/einhorn.jpg?w=300" alt="" width="300" height="175" /></a>Chipotle shares fell as much as 7.2 percent after Greenlight Capital founder David Einhorn said he was <a href="http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/10/02/einhorn-bets-against-chipotle/">betting against the company</a> today at the Value Investing Conference.</p>
<p>That the stock fell on Mr. Einhorn's pronouncement is not surprising—as <em>The Wall Street Journal </em>reported earlier this month, markets typically respond to Mr. Einhorn's public comments on companies as copycats pile into his bets. Indeed, the <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443720204578002362100327312.html?KEYWORDS=einhorn">Einhorn Effect</a> is greater when the hedge fund manager takes a negative view of a company, with a median same-day decline of 4.9 percent on the nine shorts <em>The Journal </em>included in its study.<!--more-->Chipotle, Mr. Einhorn reasoned, is vulnerable to competition—specifically, from Taco Bell's planned upscale chain. That logic is convincing enough, but maybe ... unappetizing? Business Insider has a <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/david-einhorn-short-chipotle-2012-10?op=1">preview of the new chain</a>, Cantina Bell, and the pictures are perfectly nice. It's just that we've maybe eaten too many 39 cent tacos in our day to fully credit the idea of Taco Bell heading north.</p>
<p>Mr. Einhorn said he remained bearish on Green Mountain Coffee Rosters, a bet he made famous with his <a href="http://observer.com/2012/05/how-about-a-gaap-uccino-to-go-with-those-jelly-donuts/gaap-uccino/">presentation</a> at the Value Investing Conference last year, and that he ws long Cigna and General Motors. Those shares also moved with Mr. Einhorn's comments, <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecchia/2012/10/02/the-growing-power-of-david-einhorn-chipotle-tanks-as-gm-rebounds-hard-in-minutes/">according to Forbes</a>.</p>
<p>Chipotle shares rebounded after Mr. Einhorn's comments, and are down <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CMG+Interactive#symbol=cmg;range=1d;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;">4.2 percent</a>.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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