the lead indicator

Blitt - Chandan

Further Evidence of a Rocky Recovery

S. & P.’s downgrade of U.S. debt offered investors no new information about the quality or the riskiness of Treasury securities. It has, however, challenged foundational assumptions about the workings of the global financial system at a difficult juncture for the fragile recovery.

The uncertainties introduced as a result coincide with other, less qualitative measures of the U.S. economy’s performance, which generally show that the recovery has slowed.

The rating adjustment’s blow to sentiment is amplifying concerns about what these metrics imply for the outlook, prompting investors to move out of risky positions and—ironically—into the safety of Treasuries. Read More

the lead indicator

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Europe’s Newest Agreement No Panacea

European leaders met last week in emergency session to hammer out a deal to stave off a disorderly default by Greece and to stabilize conditions in the continent’s sovereign debt markets. In extending more than $150 billion in contingent aid to Greece (including some hits taken by private creditors) and affording more flexibility in the use of the European Financial Stability Authority, the deal is an aggressive attempt to preempt further contagion.

That is an important consideration. From my discussions this week with colleagues in Germany and Switzerland, European central bankers and the core nations’ heads of state are acutely aware that they lack the tools to manage a wider crisis. Read More

SEC to Banks: No More Fudging Your Debt Figures

As expected, the Securities and Exchange Commission has decided that it’d probably be better if financial institutions weren’t regularly misleading investors about the amount of debt they carry on their balance sheets, and so today the agency decided to draft new rules that force companies to say more about their short-term borrowing.

Companies’ tendency to Read More