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	<title>Observer &#187; Doug Hoffman</title>
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		<title>Observer &#187; Doug Hoffman</title>
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		<title>Pawlenty Hires a Finkelstein Disciple, With New York Connections</title>

		<comments>http://observer.com/2011/04/pawlenty-hires-a-finkelstein-disciple-with-new-york-connections/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 14 Apr 2011 17:38:44 -0400</pubDate>
					<link>http://observer.com/2011/04/pawlenty-hires-a-finkelstein-disciple-with-new-york-connections/</link>
			<dc:creator>Reid Pillifant</dc:creator>
				
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		<description><![CDATA[<p><img class="alignleft" src="http://nyoobserver.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/pawlenty-point.jpg?w=200&h=300" />A few days after he hired a campaign manager and then announced the non-news that he would run in the Republican primary, Tim Pawlenty has hired veteran pollster Jon Lerner.</p>
<p>Lerner is based in Washington--and like Pawlenty, hails from Minnesota--but he has some interesting New York connections.</p>
<p>He worked on Doug Hoffman's Tea Party campaign in New York's 23rd District special election, <a href="http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=990CEED71131F935A2575AC0A96E958260&amp;pagewanted=2">managed </a>Al D'Amato's unsuccessful re-election bid against Chuck Schumer in 1998, and cites the legendary NewYork consultant Arthur Finkelstein as one of his mentors. The two met when Finkelstein--who helped George Pataki win an unlikely bid for governor--worked a Senate race in Minnesota in 1996.</p>
<p>"I think the world of him," Lerner <a href="http://www.campaignsandelections.com/publications/campaign-election/2010/march-2010/movers-shakers-jon-lerner">said of Finkelstein</a>. "He's a brilliant guy, probably the most brilliant guy in the business. He's helped me a great deal and I'm tremendously grateful to him and enjoy the friendship I have with him."</p>
<p>Neither of the above races went particularly well for Lerner. Hoffman got edged out in a wild special that saw the Republican candidate, Dede Scozzafava drop out and endorse the Democratic candidate, Bill Owens, who eventually won with 49 percent of the vote, to Hoffman's 45. (Scozzafava got 6 percent.)</p>
<p>D'Amato's was equally strange. The incumbent senator stumbled when he called Schumer a "putzhead," and the campaign seemed incapable of quelling the ensuing debate over the pejorative dimensions of such a vulgarity, as it dragged endlessly through the news cycle. What had been a close race became not so close, and D'Amato lost by 10 points. (In something of an irony, Lerner is himself an Orthodox Jew, and <a href="http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:0FexMiXkO-0J:www.thestate.com/2010/10/10/1505474/elections-2010.html+Jon+Lerner+d%27amato&amp;cd=2&amp;hl=en&amp;ct=clnk&amp;gl=us&amp;client=firefox-a&amp;source=www.google.com">reportedly doesn't work from sundown on Friday to sundown Saturdays</a>, even in the throes of close campaigns.)</p>
<p>Lerner's Tea Party connections could help Pawlenty make in-roads with that crowd. As an adviser to the Club for Growth, he helped--to varying degrees--with some of the more conservative candidates of the last cycle, including winners like Marco Rubio and Mike Lee, and some who lost, like Sharron Angle and Joe Miller.</p>
]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img class="alignleft" src="http://nyoobserver.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/pawlenty-point.jpg?w=200&h=300" />A few days after he hired a campaign manager and then announced the non-news that he would run in the Republican primary, Tim Pawlenty has hired veteran pollster Jon Lerner.</p>
<p>Lerner is based in Washington--and like Pawlenty, hails from Minnesota--but he has some interesting New York connections.</p>
<p>He worked on Doug Hoffman's Tea Party campaign in New York's 23rd District special election, <a href="http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=990CEED71131F935A2575AC0A96E958260&amp;pagewanted=2">managed </a>Al D'Amato's unsuccessful re-election bid against Chuck Schumer in 1998, and cites the legendary NewYork consultant Arthur Finkelstein as one of his mentors. The two met when Finkelstein--who helped George Pataki win an unlikely bid for governor--worked a Senate race in Minnesota in 1996.</p>
<p>"I think the world of him," Lerner <a href="http://www.campaignsandelections.com/publications/campaign-election/2010/march-2010/movers-shakers-jon-lerner">said of Finkelstein</a>. "He's a brilliant guy, probably the most brilliant guy in the business. He's helped me a great deal and I'm tremendously grateful to him and enjoy the friendship I have with him."</p>
<p>Neither of the above races went particularly well for Lerner. Hoffman got edged out in a wild special that saw the Republican candidate, Dede Scozzafava drop out and endorse the Democratic candidate, Bill Owens, who eventually won with 49 percent of the vote, to Hoffman's 45. (Scozzafava got 6 percent.)</p>
<p>D'Amato's was equally strange. The incumbent senator stumbled when he called Schumer a "putzhead," and the campaign seemed incapable of quelling the ensuing debate over the pejorative dimensions of such a vulgarity, as it dragged endlessly through the news cycle. What had been a close race became not so close, and D'Amato lost by 10 points. (In something of an irony, Lerner is himself an Orthodox Jew, and <a href="http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:0FexMiXkO-0J:www.thestate.com/2010/10/10/1505474/elections-2010.html+Jon+Lerner+d%27amato&amp;cd=2&amp;hl=en&amp;ct=clnk&amp;gl=us&amp;client=firefox-a&amp;source=www.google.com">reportedly doesn't work from sundown on Friday to sundown Saturdays</a>, even in the throes of close campaigns.)</p>
<p>Lerner's Tea Party connections could help Pawlenty make in-roads with that crowd. As an adviser to the Club for Growth, he helped--to varying degrees--with some of the more conservative candidates of the last cycle, including winners like Marco Rubio and Mike Lee, and some who lost, like Sharron Angle and Joe Miller.</p>
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		<title>Doug Hoffman, Effusive as Ever</title>

		<comments>http://observer.com/2009/11/doug-hoffman-effusive-as-ever/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 16 Nov 2009 21:10:51 -0400</pubDate>
					<link>http://observer.com/2009/11/doug-hoffman-effusive-as-ever/</link>
			<dc:creator>Jimmy Vielkind</dc:creator>
				
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		<description><![CDATA[<p><img class="alignleft" src="http://nyoobserver.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/hoffman_assembly.jpg?w=300&h=225" />ALBANY&mdash;He <a href="/term/ny_23-special-election">ran for Congress</a> as an outsider, the non-politician who was fed up with the course of government. It shouldn't be too surprising that he's never been to the State Capitol.</p>
<p>I found Doug Hoffman gawking at <a href="http://assembly.state.ny.us/Tour/?sec=chamber">the chamber's ornate ceiling,</a> indulging what he monotonically insisted is a deep passion for architecture, chatting with his wife Carol and the Rev. Jason McGuire, the lobbyist here who opposes same-sex marriage on behalf of a group called New Yorkers for Constitutional Freedoms. McGuire was a paid consultant to Hoffman during his<a href="/2009/politics/hoffman-and-his-movement-sputter-out"> recent failed congressional bid,</a> and today served as an impromptu tour guide.</p>
<p>I asked Hoffman if he was going to meet with Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava while he was here. Or Jim Tedisco or Brian Kolb, for that matter. Or if he was going to lobby for same-sex marriage; <a href="/2009/politics/did-same-sex-marriage-cause-scozzafavas-collapse">his candidacy has spooked many Republicans</a> in the State Senate who might have thought of voting for it, as McGuire delights in telling people.</p>
<p>"No, this really was impromptu," Hoffman said, as effusive as ever. I asked him what message his candidacy sent to Republicans, and if he would run again.</p>
<p>"Well, I said all along that I was fighting for the soul of the Republican Party, and I think that I accomplished that. I think that we got the message out there that if we're going to have values and ideals, that candidates should reflect those values and ideals," Hoffman replied.</p>
]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img class="alignleft" src="http://nyoobserver.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/hoffman_assembly.jpg?w=300&h=225" />ALBANY&mdash;He <a href="/term/ny_23-special-election">ran for Congress</a> as an outsider, the non-politician who was fed up with the course of government. It shouldn't be too surprising that he's never been to the State Capitol.</p>
<p>I found Doug Hoffman gawking at <a href="http://assembly.state.ny.us/Tour/?sec=chamber">the chamber's ornate ceiling,</a> indulging what he monotonically insisted is a deep passion for architecture, chatting with his wife Carol and the Rev. Jason McGuire, the lobbyist here who opposes same-sex marriage on behalf of a group called New Yorkers for Constitutional Freedoms. McGuire was a paid consultant to Hoffman during his<a href="/2009/politics/hoffman-and-his-movement-sputter-out"> recent failed congressional bid,</a> and today served as an impromptu tour guide.</p>
<p>I asked Hoffman if he was going to meet with Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava while he was here. Or Jim Tedisco or Brian Kolb, for that matter. Or if he was going to lobby for same-sex marriage; <a href="/2009/politics/did-same-sex-marriage-cause-scozzafavas-collapse">his candidacy has spooked many Republicans</a> in the State Senate who might have thought of voting for it, as McGuire delights in telling people.</p>
<p>"No, this really was impromptu," Hoffman said, as effusive as ever. I asked him what message his candidacy sent to Republicans, and if he would run again.</p>
<p>"Well, I said all along that I was fighting for the soul of the Republican Party, and I think that I accomplished that. I think that we got the message out there that if we're going to have values and ideals, that candidates should reflect those values and ideals," Hoffman replied.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Owens, Now, Comes Out for the Health Care Bill</title>

		<comments>http://observer.com/2009/11/owens-now-comes-out-for-the-health-care-bill/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Nov 2009 20:16:26 -0400</pubDate>
					<link>http://observer.com/2009/11/owens-now-comes-out-for-the-health-care-bill/</link>
			<dc:creator>Jimmy Vielkind</dc:creator>
				
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		<description><![CDATA[<p><img class="alignleft" src="http://nyoobserver.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/owens_enters.jpg?w=300&h=225" />ALBANY&mdash;Bill Owens, who is being sworn in as a member of Congress today, has announced his intention to vote for the<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/07/us/politics/07health.html?hp"> health care restructuring bill backed by Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama.</a> He resisted taking a specific position on the issue throughout his campaign.</p>
<p>Owens announced the vote in a press release and <a href="http://www.watertowndailytimes.com/article/20091106/NEWS03/311069947">suggested as much in Watertown yesterday.</a> He just concluded a special election campaign against Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava and Doug  Hoffman, but never got specific about how he would vote on many of the healthcare proposals that were floating through, including H.R. 3962, which could be voted on Saturday.</p>
<p>"During his campaign for Congress, Owens showed consistent support for legislation that would end pre-existing condition exclusions, reign in spending, protect small businesses and keep middle-class taxes low," the press release says. (They probably meant "rein in." Anyway.)</p>
<p>When I first talked to Owens <a href="/4850/meet-bill-owens-dccc-approved-non-democrat-house">on the night of his nomination,</a> he told me he was against a public option for healthcare (then laid out his four criteria). A week later, Owens was endorsed by the union SEIU 1199, whose political director Kevin Finnegan told me <a href="/4977/1199-obama-ally-ny-23">"his position is a little more nuanced than that."</a> Finnegan said the union picked Owens because he would work with the president.</p>
<p>A few weeks later, after Barack Obama <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/09/09/obama-health-care-speech_n_281265.html">gave a speech to Congress</a> about the issue, I called Owens for his reaction, and again asked him about health care. He refused to be specific about the public option, and referred to the four principles above: "I don't want to apply a litmus test, I don't want to apply a label. I want to be able to analyze the information and the bill and come to a conclusion," <a href="/5264/ny-23-candidates-weigh-obama-care">he said then.</a></p>
<p><a href="http://thehill.com/homenews/house/65409-pelosi-unveils-healthcare-bill-house-moves-toward-floor-vote">Nancy Pelosi unveiled the bill members will vote on</a> Oct. 29; the same night as a <a href="http://www.9wsyr.com/news/local/story/23rd-Congressional-debate-held-on-NewsChannel-9/YUpxhxHX9EajONK98F8n1Q.cspx">televised debate in Syracuse.</a> Owens hinted then he could support the House bill.</p>
<p>"The bills were changing so rapidly prior to that, and I suspect will continue to change," he <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iGq7Rq1oIiI">told reporters the next day in Watertown,</a> noting he had bill language to analyze. "I'm going to measure my view of any legislation that I will vote on based on the four criteria that I talked about for a couple of months now."</p>
<p>Now, after the election and after he was sworn in: "This legislation will reform the insurance industry and provide increased access to affordable healthcare without taxing healthcare benefits, cutting Medicare benefits or raising taxes on the middle class, and that is exactly the direction we need to go," Owens said. "There are still changes I would like to make, including raising the payroll exemption for small businesses, but like I said last week, there is a fundamental need for reform and we must act with a sense of urgency. This plan will reign in costs, strengthen the middle class and protect our economy from additional debt down the road."</p>
<p>Republicans were never able to specifically attack Owens on this issue, as they have attacked other House members. <a href="/2009/politics/collapse-dede-scozzafava-moderate-republican-0">And with an internecine fight between the Republican and Conservative candidates,</a> the issue faded to the background in the final days of the campaign.</p>
<p>"You have to really look hard to say that he said anything about anything. Everyone was so transfixed with Dede and Hoffman," said Jim Ellis, the Franklin County Republican chairman. "I don't think people who are voters in the North Country are in favor of card check, and they're not in favor of the public health care option, and they're not in favor of Nancy Pelosi. He's going to stand up and be a little tutu for Nancy Pelosi. We'll see it tomorrow."</p>
<p>Four other upstate Democrats are not clear supporters of the issue: <a href="/2009/politics/massa-im-no-no-matter-what">Eric Massa says he will vote no,</a> and Mike Arcuri, Scott Murphy and Dan Maffei <a href="http://www.theithacajournal.com/article/20091105/NEWS01/911050426/Health+care+bill+splits+upstate+delegation">have not taken public positions.</a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img class="alignleft" src="http://nyoobserver.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/owens_enters.jpg?w=300&h=225" />ALBANY&mdash;Bill Owens, who is being sworn in as a member of Congress today, has announced his intention to vote for the<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/07/us/politics/07health.html?hp"> health care restructuring bill backed by Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama.</a> He resisted taking a specific position on the issue throughout his campaign.</p>
<p>Owens announced the vote in a press release and <a href="http://www.watertowndailytimes.com/article/20091106/NEWS03/311069947">suggested as much in Watertown yesterday.</a> He just concluded a special election campaign against Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava and Doug  Hoffman, but never got specific about how he would vote on many of the healthcare proposals that were floating through, including H.R. 3962, which could be voted on Saturday.</p>
<p>"During his campaign for Congress, Owens showed consistent support for legislation that would end pre-existing condition exclusions, reign in spending, protect small businesses and keep middle-class taxes low," the press release says. (They probably meant "rein in." Anyway.)</p>
<p>When I first talked to Owens <a href="/4850/meet-bill-owens-dccc-approved-non-democrat-house">on the night of his nomination,</a> he told me he was against a public option for healthcare (then laid out his four criteria). A week later, Owens was endorsed by the union SEIU 1199, whose political director Kevin Finnegan told me <a href="/4977/1199-obama-ally-ny-23">"his position is a little more nuanced than that."</a> Finnegan said the union picked Owens because he would work with the president.</p>
<p>A few weeks later, after Barack Obama <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/09/09/obama-health-care-speech_n_281265.html">gave a speech to Congress</a> about the issue, I called Owens for his reaction, and again asked him about health care. He refused to be specific about the public option, and referred to the four principles above: "I don't want to apply a litmus test, I don't want to apply a label. I want to be able to analyze the information and the bill and come to a conclusion," <a href="/5264/ny-23-candidates-weigh-obama-care">he said then.</a></p>
<p><a href="http://thehill.com/homenews/house/65409-pelosi-unveils-healthcare-bill-house-moves-toward-floor-vote">Nancy Pelosi unveiled the bill members will vote on</a> Oct. 29; the same night as a <a href="http://www.9wsyr.com/news/local/story/23rd-Congressional-debate-held-on-NewsChannel-9/YUpxhxHX9EajONK98F8n1Q.cspx">televised debate in Syracuse.</a> Owens hinted then he could support the House bill.</p>
<p>"The bills were changing so rapidly prior to that, and I suspect will continue to change," he <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iGq7Rq1oIiI">told reporters the next day in Watertown,</a> noting he had bill language to analyze. "I'm going to measure my view of any legislation that I will vote on based on the four criteria that I talked about for a couple of months now."</p>
<p>Now, after the election and after he was sworn in: "This legislation will reform the insurance industry and provide increased access to affordable healthcare without taxing healthcare benefits, cutting Medicare benefits or raising taxes on the middle class, and that is exactly the direction we need to go," Owens said. "There are still changes I would like to make, including raising the payroll exemption for small businesses, but like I said last week, there is a fundamental need for reform and we must act with a sense of urgency. This plan will reign in costs, strengthen the middle class and protect our economy from additional debt down the road."</p>
<p>Republicans were never able to specifically attack Owens on this issue, as they have attacked other House members. <a href="/2009/politics/collapse-dede-scozzafava-moderate-republican-0">And with an internecine fight between the Republican and Conservative candidates,</a> the issue faded to the background in the final days of the campaign.</p>
<p>"You have to really look hard to say that he said anything about anything. Everyone was so transfixed with Dede and Hoffman," said Jim Ellis, the Franklin County Republican chairman. "I don't think people who are voters in the North Country are in favor of card check, and they're not in favor of the public health care option, and they're not in favor of Nancy Pelosi. He's going to stand up and be a little tutu for Nancy Pelosi. We'll see it tomorrow."</p>
<p>Four other upstate Democrats are not clear supporters of the issue: <a href="/2009/politics/massa-im-no-no-matter-what">Eric Massa says he will vote no,</a> and Mike Arcuri, Scott Murphy and Dan Maffei <a href="http://www.theithacajournal.com/article/20091105/NEWS01/911050426/Health+care+bill+splits+upstate+delegation">have not taken public positions.</a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Cox: Westchester Was Huge, Dede Could Have Won</title>

		<comments>http://observer.com/2009/11/cox-westchester-was-huge-dede-could-have-won/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Nov 2009 19:15:26 -0400</pubDate>
					<link>http://observer.com/2009/11/cox-westchester-was-huge-dede-could-have-won/</link>
			<dc:creator>Jimmy Vielkind</dc:creator>
				
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		<description><![CDATA[<p><img class="alignleft" src="http://nyoobserver.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/ed_cox1.jpg" />ALBANY&mdash;Ed Cox is all about Westchester County, and <a href="http://www.lohud.com/article/2009911040362">Rob Astorino's upset ouster of County Executive Andy Spano.</a></p>
<p>"If we can win Westchester, that is almost as big a win as the wins which I expected to happen, and which did happen, in New  Jersey and Virginia," Cox told me during a phone interview Wednesday afternoon, noting the suburban county has a two-to-one Democratic enrollment advantage.</p>
<p>"That win by Rob Astorino was a huge message to potential Republican candidates here in New York State--whether you're running for an assembly office or a senate office, or a statewide office or a very local office--the Republican Party is going to be doing very good not just now but in the future."</p>
<p>In addition to Astorino--for whom Cox noted he campaigned--Republicans made gains in Erie, Dutchess and Nassau counties as well as holding ground in Rockland  County. The only <a href="/2009/politics/how-bill-owens-spoiled-republican-narrative">blip in the victory narrative</a>--and it was a massive one--was <a href="/2009/politics/hoffman-and-his-movement-sputter-out">Doug Hoffman's special election loss</a> to Bill Owens in the race to <a href="/term/ny_23-special-election">replace John McHugh, a Republican, in Congress.</a></p>
<p>Cox said did an interesting dance on this in our conversation: he told me that he felt his party's legal nominee, Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, "would have won that district overwhelmingly if it had been a race between her and Mr. Owens." <a href="/2009/politics/collapse-dede-scozzafava-moderate-republican-0">Her candidacy collapsed under pressure from conservatives.</a></p>
<p>But it was a three-way race, with Doug  Hoffman on the Conservative Party line, she didn't stand a chance, and Cox barely lifted a finger to help her. When Scozzafava dropped out, Cox endorsed Hoffman. He said Hoffman lost because it's "not your traditional Republican rural kind of county," and that more of a cross-base appeal, like Scozzafava could have provided, was needed.</p>
<p>"He was a fiscal conservative, but Bill Owens also defined himself as a fiscal conservative. In that close race, Bill Owens, he not only secured his base, the Democratic base, but he also reached over into the Republican issues and identified himself as a fiscal conservative," Cox explained. "The lesson from the 23<sup>rd</sup> district is going to be: fiscal conservatism wins."</p>
<p>"And he [Hoffman] fought back by saying he was a fiscal conservative, and he convinced enough. This is a swing county, this is not a Republican county. There is a <a href="/2009/politics/how-labor-works-now-owens">very strong labor component up there,</a> there is a strong environmental component, there's a strong higher education component," Cox continued. I asked him then if, given this read and a belief that Scozzafava could have won, if he was not putting egg on his face for not supporting her more aggressively.</p>
<p>"No, you asked me if she could have won it," he replied. "And she could, given the fact that she in many ways was a fiscal conservative, she was for continuing the Bush tax cuts, she voted against the last Democratic budget, she signed the tax pledge, and she was a floor leader for the conservative Republican caucus in the Assembly."</p>
<p>"She reached across into the independent and Democratic side," Cox said. "She knew the issues up there very well, by the way, like the St. Lawrence Seaway and the road going across the northern part of the district."</p>
<p>And then, he reiterated, <a href="/2009/politics/kolb-there-will-be-frank-discussions-about-dedes-endorsement">she betrayed the party by endorsing Owens,</a> a move that coupled with labor support is believed by most analysts to have won him the election.</p>
<p>I asked Cox what this race would mean for his relationship with the Conservative Party. On Election Night, Chairman Mike  Long <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypolitics/mike-longconservative-party/">told Liz and me </a>that "the Republican Party lost the seat by picking and allowing and funding a candidate that wasn't really even in any way, shape, or form respectful of Republican policies and principles."</p>
<p>"I submit to you that we're not spoilers. Hoffman had the right message," Long said. "Look at the numbers. Add together what the Republican line got and what the Conservative line got and guess what? We would have definitely held this seat in the Republican column."</p>
<p>Here's Cox's take:</p>
<p>"Look, I know that Mike Long does not want to be a spoiler," Cox said. "He proved that with the Westchester race, where he stepped in and repudiated his local conservative leader and repudiated the corrupt deal that that leader had made with Andy Spano. Mike Long said in Westchester: I want all people that vote conservative to vote for Rob Astorino. Don't vote on the Conservative line for Andy Spano. He didn't want the Conservative candidate to, in fact, to get the vote of Conservatives."</p>
<p>"I think what happened in Westchester is more the paradigm of what's going to happen going forward between the Republican Party and the Conservative Party. I know Mike  Long does not want to be a spoiler. I know he wants to do what's right for the people of the state of New York, and enact the fiscal policies we need," he said.</p>
<p>Of course, others disagree with Cox's fiscal supremacy theory; Bruce Gyory, a political consultant said it was a "anti-incumbent rip tide" that took down Spano and caused a <a href="/2009/politics/small-finish-major-setback-statewide-suozzi">squeaker for Tom Suozzi.</a> Cox, predictably, is going to bask in his victories while he can.</p>
<p>"This election is really the start, and this is one of the reasons that I wanted to be the <a href="/4872/cox-begins-listening-tour">chairman of my party in New York State,"</a> Cox said. "This is the start of a large movement, and it shows what's really happening and what can be done."</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img class="alignleft" src="http://nyoobserver.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/ed_cox1.jpg" />ALBANY&mdash;Ed Cox is all about Westchester County, and <a href="http://www.lohud.com/article/2009911040362">Rob Astorino's upset ouster of County Executive Andy Spano.</a></p>
<p>"If we can win Westchester, that is almost as big a win as the wins which I expected to happen, and which did happen, in New  Jersey and Virginia," Cox told me during a phone interview Wednesday afternoon, noting the suburban county has a two-to-one Democratic enrollment advantage.</p>
<p>"That win by Rob Astorino was a huge message to potential Republican candidates here in New York State--whether you're running for an assembly office or a senate office, or a statewide office or a very local office--the Republican Party is going to be doing very good not just now but in the future."</p>
<p>In addition to Astorino--for whom Cox noted he campaigned--Republicans made gains in Erie, Dutchess and Nassau counties as well as holding ground in Rockland  County. The only <a href="/2009/politics/how-bill-owens-spoiled-republican-narrative">blip in the victory narrative</a>--and it was a massive one--was <a href="/2009/politics/hoffman-and-his-movement-sputter-out">Doug Hoffman's special election loss</a> to Bill Owens in the race to <a href="/term/ny_23-special-election">replace John McHugh, a Republican, in Congress.</a></p>
<p>Cox said did an interesting dance on this in our conversation: he told me that he felt his party's legal nominee, Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, "would have won that district overwhelmingly if it had been a race between her and Mr. Owens." <a href="/2009/politics/collapse-dede-scozzafava-moderate-republican-0">Her candidacy collapsed under pressure from conservatives.</a></p>
<p>But it was a three-way race, with Doug  Hoffman on the Conservative Party line, she didn't stand a chance, and Cox barely lifted a finger to help her. When Scozzafava dropped out, Cox endorsed Hoffman. He said Hoffman lost because it's "not your traditional Republican rural kind of county," and that more of a cross-base appeal, like Scozzafava could have provided, was needed.</p>
<p>"He was a fiscal conservative, but Bill Owens also defined himself as a fiscal conservative. In that close race, Bill Owens, he not only secured his base, the Democratic base, but he also reached over into the Republican issues and identified himself as a fiscal conservative," Cox explained. "The lesson from the 23<sup>rd</sup> district is going to be: fiscal conservatism wins."</p>
<p>"And he [Hoffman] fought back by saying he was a fiscal conservative, and he convinced enough. This is a swing county, this is not a Republican county. There is a <a href="/2009/politics/how-labor-works-now-owens">very strong labor component up there,</a> there is a strong environmental component, there's a strong higher education component," Cox continued. I asked him then if, given this read and a belief that Scozzafava could have won, if he was not putting egg on his face for not supporting her more aggressively.</p>
<p>"No, you asked me if she could have won it," he replied. "And she could, given the fact that she in many ways was a fiscal conservative, she was for continuing the Bush tax cuts, she voted against the last Democratic budget, she signed the tax pledge, and she was a floor leader for the conservative Republican caucus in the Assembly."</p>
<p>"She reached across into the independent and Democratic side," Cox said. "She knew the issues up there very well, by the way, like the St. Lawrence Seaway and the road going across the northern part of the district."</p>
<p>And then, he reiterated, <a href="/2009/politics/kolb-there-will-be-frank-discussions-about-dedes-endorsement">she betrayed the party by endorsing Owens,</a> a move that coupled with labor support is believed by most analysts to have won him the election.</p>
<p>I asked Cox what this race would mean for his relationship with the Conservative Party. On Election Night, Chairman Mike  Long <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypolitics/mike-longconservative-party/">told Liz and me </a>that "the Republican Party lost the seat by picking and allowing and funding a candidate that wasn't really even in any way, shape, or form respectful of Republican policies and principles."</p>
<p>"I submit to you that we're not spoilers. Hoffman had the right message," Long said. "Look at the numbers. Add together what the Republican line got and what the Conservative line got and guess what? We would have definitely held this seat in the Republican column."</p>
<p>Here's Cox's take:</p>
<p>"Look, I know that Mike Long does not want to be a spoiler," Cox said. "He proved that with the Westchester race, where he stepped in and repudiated his local conservative leader and repudiated the corrupt deal that that leader had made with Andy Spano. Mike Long said in Westchester: I want all people that vote conservative to vote for Rob Astorino. Don't vote on the Conservative line for Andy Spano. He didn't want the Conservative candidate to, in fact, to get the vote of Conservatives."</p>
<p>"I think what happened in Westchester is more the paradigm of what's going to happen going forward between the Republican Party and the Conservative Party. I know Mike  Long does not want to be a spoiler. I know he wants to do what's right for the people of the state of New York, and enact the fiscal policies we need," he said.</p>
<p>Of course, others disagree with Cox's fiscal supremacy theory; Bruce Gyory, a political consultant said it was a "anti-incumbent rip tide" that took down Spano and caused a <a href="/2009/politics/small-finish-major-setback-statewide-suozzi">squeaker for Tom Suozzi.</a> Cox, predictably, is going to bask in his victories while he can.</p>
<p>"This election is really the start, and this is one of the reasons that I wanted to be the <a href="/4872/cox-begins-listening-tour">chairman of my party in New York State,"</a> Cox said. "This is the start of a large movement, and it shows what's really happening and what can be done."</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Labor Brags About the Owens Win</title>

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		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Nov 2009 17:47:57 -0400</pubDate>
					<link>http://observer.com/2009/11/labor-brags-about-the-owens-win/</link>
			<dc:creator>Jimmy Vielkind</dc:creator>
				
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		<description><![CDATA[<p>SARANAC LAKE&mdash;It did come down to a battle of the boots here in the<a href="/term/ny_23-special-election"> 23rd Congressional district,</a> and the unions which aligned by Bill Owens at the last minute are touting their victory.</p>
<p>"The late labor candidate won," said Ron McDougall, the president of the Jefferson-Lewis-St. Lawrence Central Labor Council (and the <a href="/2009/politics/collapse-dede-scozzafava-moderate-republican-0">husband of Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava</a>) told me. "Certainly there was an intensified effort in the end. There were some leaders that hardly took a minute off."</p>
<p>"The plumbers union is never wrong," boasted Larry Bulman, the <a href="/3446/larry-bulman-may-step-down-saratoga-county-chair">political director for the New York State Pipe and Trades association</a> (and Saratoga County Democratic chair) after last night's victory. His union, unlike McDougall's organization, has supported Owens for weeks. "We have the harder workers. People take us for granted, but it's the unions that win these races."</p>
<p>Other organizations <a href="/2009/politics/scozzafavas-labor-support-breaks-democrat">came around later.</a> A spokesman for NYSUT, <a href="/2009/politics/how-labor-works-now-owens">whose war room I visited on Monday evening,</a> told me this morning that the union had 300 activists handing out leaflets and making phone calls for Owens in the final 72 hours. Denis Hughes, president of the New York AFL-CIO said "with only hours to prepare, and less than three days to implement its strategy, labor's ground forces knocked on thousands of doors and made close to 150,000 phone calls.&nbsp;&nbsp; In less than 72 hours, organized labor mobilized hundreds of volunteers on the streets in the 23rd Congressional District."</p>
<p>And these supporters often overlapped with those of Scozzafava, as David Wasserman of the <a href="http://www.cookpolitical.com/">Cook Political Report.</a> At the same time, he says, <a href="/2009/politics/hoffman-and-his-movement-sputter-out">Hoffman's ground game</a> didn't rise to the occasion.</p>
<p>"This is a geographically enormous district where the largest town is only 28,000 people and voters pride themselves on living in a land apart," Wasserman wrote. "The fierce out-of-district support that Hoffman generated from grassroots conservative groups caused a backlash among many voters who felt as if outsiders were meddlesome and dismissive or ignorant of myriad local issues, ranging from saving Fort Drum to repairing the Champlain Bridge."</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>SARANAC LAKE&mdash;It did come down to a battle of the boots here in the<a href="/term/ny_23-special-election"> 23rd Congressional district,</a> and the unions which aligned by Bill Owens at the last minute are touting their victory.</p>
<p>"The late labor candidate won," said Ron McDougall, the president of the Jefferson-Lewis-St. Lawrence Central Labor Council (and the <a href="/2009/politics/collapse-dede-scozzafava-moderate-republican-0">husband of Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava</a>) told me. "Certainly there was an intensified effort in the end. There were some leaders that hardly took a minute off."</p>
<p>"The plumbers union is never wrong," boasted Larry Bulman, the <a href="/3446/larry-bulman-may-step-down-saratoga-county-chair">political director for the New York State Pipe and Trades association</a> (and Saratoga County Democratic chair) after last night's victory. His union, unlike McDougall's organization, has supported Owens for weeks. "We have the harder workers. People take us for granted, but it's the unions that win these races."</p>
<p>Other organizations <a href="/2009/politics/scozzafavas-labor-support-breaks-democrat">came around later.</a> A spokesman for NYSUT, <a href="/2009/politics/how-labor-works-now-owens">whose war room I visited on Monday evening,</a> told me this morning that the union had 300 activists handing out leaflets and making phone calls for Owens in the final 72 hours. Denis Hughes, president of the New York AFL-CIO said "with only hours to prepare, and less than three days to implement its strategy, labor's ground forces knocked on thousands of doors and made close to 150,000 phone calls.&nbsp;&nbsp; In less than 72 hours, organized labor mobilized hundreds of volunteers on the streets in the 23rd Congressional District."</p>
<p>And these supporters often overlapped with those of Scozzafava, as David Wasserman of the <a href="http://www.cookpolitical.com/">Cook Political Report.</a> At the same time, he says, <a href="/2009/politics/hoffman-and-his-movement-sputter-out">Hoffman's ground game</a> didn't rise to the occasion.</p>
<p>"This is a geographically enormous district where the largest town is only 28,000 people and voters pride themselves on living in a land apart," Wasserman wrote. "The fierce out-of-district support that Hoffman generated from grassroots conservative groups caused a backlash among many voters who felt as if outsiders were meddlesome and dismissive or ignorant of myriad local issues, ranging from saving Fort Drum to repairing the Champlain Bridge."</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>How Bill Owens Spoiled a Republican Narrative</title>

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		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Nov 2009 11:28:17 -0400</pubDate>
					<link>http://observer.com/2009/11/how-bill-owens-spoiled-a-republican-narrative/</link>
			<dc:creator>Staff</dc:creator>
				
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		<description><![CDATA[<p>So there we were somewhere around 10 o'clock on Election Night, watching as county after county reported devastating news for Jon Corzine.</p>
<p>New Jersey's governor&mdash;for whom Barack Obama made two splashy campaign appearances in the home stretch&mdash;was going down, the first Democrat to lose a statewide race there in 12 years, and only the second in 37 years to lose one by more than a point. And the national Republican Party was ready to exploit it for all it was worth.</p>
<p>"That sound you hear," G.O.P. strategist Mike Murphy <a href="http://twitter.com/murphymike">confidently tweeted</a> as Corzine's demise became obvious, "is a lot of Blue Dog Democrats in House running now for the tall grass. NJ loss will be big whammy for them."</p>
<p>The G.O.P.'s gloating spin for the foreseeable future was set: Look, we just beat an incumbent Democrat who attached himself to Obama in a deeply blue state! This White House, with its stimulus plans and health scare schemes, is politically toxic&mdash;and incumbents with the dreaded "D" label are heading for the same fate in 2010.</p>
<p>And then, as if on cue, the votes started pouring in from the upstate 23rd&nbsp;District&mdash;a district, mind you, that last sent a Democrat to Congress when Abraham Lincoln was president. And the leader was none other than the Democratic nominee, Bill Owens&mdash;the same man who received a last-minute campaign visit from that (supposedly) politically toxic White House's own vice president, Joe Biden.</p>
<p>By the time most of the votes were tallied, Owens <a href="/2009/politics/majority-precincts-it-looks-its-over-hoffman">was on his way to victory</a> over Doug Hoffman, who ran on the Conservative Party line but who was embraced by the national G.O.P. in the race's closing days.</p>
<p>And with Owens' apparent triumph, the G.O.P.'s spin went straight down the toilet. So we lost New   Jersey, Democrats could now say. Big deal. Corzine was as popular as swine flu. It's not like it had anything to do with Obama&mdash;because if that was the case, then we wouldn't have just won one of the most reliably Republican Congressional districts in the nation!</p>
<p>Instead of touting a complete off-year sweep, which they seemed poised to do earlier in the evening, Republicans found themselves at the end of Election Night trying desperately to spin an at-best muddled result into clear-cut evidence of a national rejection of President Obama (and a simultaneous awakening of the G.O.P.).</p>
<p>But it wasn't that at all, and no one was about to fall for it&mdash;thanks to Owens. Had he lost in the 23rd, the G.O.P. would have earned the off-year sweep it so badly wanted&mdash;and, for a few brief minutes, even tasted. Instead, the White House and national Democrats can call Election '09 a wash. (Well, they'll call it a major victory, but the press will treat it as a wash, which is good enough for Obama and his allies.)</p>
<p>Moreover, the apparent defeat of Hoffman will shine much more attention in the coming days on the G.O.P.'s civil war.</p>
<p>The right celebrated when his independent candidacy&mdash;itself the result, in part, of New York's outdated primary-less procedure for House special elections&mdash;forced the G.O.P.'s moderate nominee, Dede Scozzafava, out of the race the weekend before the vote. It was, they claimed and the press agreed, the final nail in the coffin of the old Rockefeller wing of the G.O.P. For years, moderates had been fleeing the G.O.P.; now they were being told definitely that they weren't welcome in the party anymore.</p>
<p>To conservatives nationally, this was a terrific development&mdash;a chance to show that their eagerness to move even farther to the right after the 2006 and 2008 elections and their decision to blindly and loudly oppose all of President Obama's initiatives could win at the ballot box.</p>
<p>But it all backfired. Scozzafava's exit and subsequent endorsement of Owens, it's now clear, infused the Democrat's campaign with significant new support in the race's closing days&mdash;a clear repudiation of the right's claim that the G.O.P. can win without even trying to appeal to the middle.</p>
<p>With Scozzafava as their nominee (and without Hoffman and his national conservative allies running a third-party campaign), the Republicans would have won this special election. Which would have given them their coveted off-year sweep. Then they would have been free to spin away about all of the horrible and troubling implications for Obama's presidency.</p>
<p>Instead, though, they were left talking up New Jersey while trying to pretend the Owens-Hoffman race didn't happen.&nbsp;</p>
<p>By the way, in case you missed it, here was one of Murphy's final tweets of the night: "I don't have county by county numbers to work from but it looks like Owens in NY-23 to me. Shocker!"</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>So there we were somewhere around 10 o'clock on Election Night, watching as county after county reported devastating news for Jon Corzine.</p>
<p>New Jersey's governor&mdash;for whom Barack Obama made two splashy campaign appearances in the home stretch&mdash;was going down, the first Democrat to lose a statewide race there in 12 years, and only the second in 37 years to lose one by more than a point. And the national Republican Party was ready to exploit it for all it was worth.</p>
<p>"That sound you hear," G.O.P. strategist Mike Murphy <a href="http://twitter.com/murphymike">confidently tweeted</a> as Corzine's demise became obvious, "is a lot of Blue Dog Democrats in House running now for the tall grass. NJ loss will be big whammy for them."</p>
<p>The G.O.P.'s gloating spin for the foreseeable future was set: Look, we just beat an incumbent Democrat who attached himself to Obama in a deeply blue state! This White House, with its stimulus plans and health scare schemes, is politically toxic&mdash;and incumbents with the dreaded "D" label are heading for the same fate in 2010.</p>
<p>And then, as if on cue, the votes started pouring in from the upstate 23rd&nbsp;District&mdash;a district, mind you, that last sent a Democrat to Congress when Abraham Lincoln was president. And the leader was none other than the Democratic nominee, Bill Owens&mdash;the same man who received a last-minute campaign visit from that (supposedly) politically toxic White House's own vice president, Joe Biden.</p>
<p>By the time most of the votes were tallied, Owens <a href="/2009/politics/majority-precincts-it-looks-its-over-hoffman">was on his way to victory</a> over Doug Hoffman, who ran on the Conservative Party line but who was embraced by the national G.O.P. in the race's closing days.</p>
<p>And with Owens' apparent triumph, the G.O.P.'s spin went straight down the toilet. So we lost New   Jersey, Democrats could now say. Big deal. Corzine was as popular as swine flu. It's not like it had anything to do with Obama&mdash;because if that was the case, then we wouldn't have just won one of the most reliably Republican Congressional districts in the nation!</p>
<p>Instead of touting a complete off-year sweep, which they seemed poised to do earlier in the evening, Republicans found themselves at the end of Election Night trying desperately to spin an at-best muddled result into clear-cut evidence of a national rejection of President Obama (and a simultaneous awakening of the G.O.P.).</p>
<p>But it wasn't that at all, and no one was about to fall for it&mdash;thanks to Owens. Had he lost in the 23rd, the G.O.P. would have earned the off-year sweep it so badly wanted&mdash;and, for a few brief minutes, even tasted. Instead, the White House and national Democrats can call Election '09 a wash. (Well, they'll call it a major victory, but the press will treat it as a wash, which is good enough for Obama and his allies.)</p>
<p>Moreover, the apparent defeat of Hoffman will shine much more attention in the coming days on the G.O.P.'s civil war.</p>
<p>The right celebrated when his independent candidacy&mdash;itself the result, in part, of New York's outdated primary-less procedure for House special elections&mdash;forced the G.O.P.'s moderate nominee, Dede Scozzafava, out of the race the weekend before the vote. It was, they claimed and the press agreed, the final nail in the coffin of the old Rockefeller wing of the G.O.P. For years, moderates had been fleeing the G.O.P.; now they were being told definitely that they weren't welcome in the party anymore.</p>
<p>To conservatives nationally, this was a terrific development&mdash;a chance to show that their eagerness to move even farther to the right after the 2006 and 2008 elections and their decision to blindly and loudly oppose all of President Obama's initiatives could win at the ballot box.</p>
<p>But it all backfired. Scozzafava's exit and subsequent endorsement of Owens, it's now clear, infused the Democrat's campaign with significant new support in the race's closing days&mdash;a clear repudiation of the right's claim that the G.O.P. can win without even trying to appeal to the middle.</p>
<p>With Scozzafava as their nominee (and without Hoffman and his national conservative allies running a third-party campaign), the Republicans would have won this special election. Which would have given them their coveted off-year sweep. Then they would have been free to spin away about all of the horrible and troubling implications for Obama's presidency.</p>
<p>Instead, though, they were left talking up New Jersey while trying to pretend the Owens-Hoffman race didn't happen.&nbsp;</p>
<p>By the way, in case you missed it, here was one of Murphy's final tweets of the night: "I don't have county by county numbers to work from but it looks like Owens in NY-23 to me. Shocker!"</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Democrats, Local and National, Thank Dede and Take Credit for Owens</title>

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		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Nov 2009 11:23:36 -0400</pubDate>
					<link>http://observer.com/2009/11/democrats-local-and-national-thank-dede-and-take-credit-for-owens/</link>
			<dc:creator>Jimmy Vielkind</dc:creator>
				
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		<description><![CDATA[<p>SARANAC LAKE&mdash;It wasn't <a href="/2009/politics/hoffman-and-his-movement-sputter-out">the political right,</a> but rather the Democrats who sent a message in Bill Owens' successful bid to <a href="/term/ny_23-special-election/list?sort=recent">replace John McHugh in Congress.</a></p>
<p>"Tonight with the entire country watching, Upstate New Yorkers sent a message," Owens said at his victory party in Plattsburgh. "We came together tonight as Democrats, Republicans, and Independents to seek solutions--to create jobs for our workers, to bring economic development back to our communities, to fight for Fort Drum, and to give all middle class families in upstate New York a fair shake from Washington."</p>
<p><a href="/2009/politics/owens-vote-me-guy-who-loves-jobs-dede-and-not-doug-hoffman">Owens gave "special thanks" to Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava,</a> the Republican candidate who dropped out this weekend and <a href="/2009/politics/scozzafava-calls-owens">threw her support to him.</a> It was by sucking up support in her counties, the early analysis shows, that he was able to beat Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman.</p>
<p>"We both acknowledged her and the courage that it took for her to do what she knew in her heart was right," June O'Neill, the executive committee chair of the Democratic State Committee, told me by phone around 1 a.m. "I think that it swayed certainly her supporters, and people over the last 24 hours have been <a href="/2009/politics/bill-owens-against-rush-those-who-would-abuse-dede">outraged at the muck that people have been throwing at her."</a></p>
<p>Rob Ryan, a spokesman for Doug Hoffman, said he didn't know what effect Scozzafava's presence on the ballot--she drew more votes than Owens' margin of victory--had, and whether her&nbsp; rough treatment by Hoffman's allies had hurt Hoffman.</p>
<p>"Maybe those people voted for Scozzafava because they couldn't bring themselves to vote for Bill Owens. I don't know," <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QucF27WDuBs">Ryan said.</a> "It's something that the pundits are going to be looking at for some time."</p>
<p>&nbsp;"I didn't think we were un-nice. I mean, she was the one, if you ask me, who flipped. We didn't do anything un-nice to her," he continued. "When Rush Limbaugh calls somebody something, well look: a lot of people call a lot of people things. Our campaign never did anything but talk about the issues with her. Okay? We talked about her being a liberal. We talked about her liberal voting record which is very clear. So, you know, to say we were nasty because Rush Limbaugh said something is, you know, I think sort of silly."</p>
<p>O'Neill attacked Limbaugh and other outside voices supporting Hoffman, saying "not here, not now, <a href="/2009/politics/june-oneill-its-not-referendum-its-just-seat-gop-bought">we are not for sale.</a> Glen Beck, Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity don't live here, but Addie Russell and Darrel Aubertine do, and the people listened to them."</p>
<p>In the same vein, Representative Chris Van Hollen, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, released this statement on the national implications of the race:</p>
<blockquote><p>"Congratulations to Congressman-elect Bill Owens on his remarkable victory. Voters in New York's 23<sup>rd</sup> District responded to Bill Owens' message and track record of creating jobs and attracting economic development to Upstate New York.</p>
<p>"This election represents a double-blow for National Republicans and their hopes of translating this summer's 'tea party' energy into victories at the ballot box. Not only did eight extreme right-wing groups spend more than $1 million to drive the moderate Republican - and the NRCC's chosen candidate - out of the race. Now, after losing a seat that was held by Republicans for nearly 120 years, they have to deal with an emboldened and well-funded far right-wing that refuses to tolerate moderate Republicans with differing opinions.</p>
<p>"I am grateful to President Obama, Vice President Biden, House Democratic Leaders, Senators Schumer and Gillibrand, Congressman Steve Israel and the entire New York Congressional Delegation for their tireless work on behalf of and support of Bill Owens.</p>
<p>"With his commitment to reaching across the aisle to help President Obama enact his agenda for creating jobs and getting our economy moving again, Congressman-elect Bill Owens will be a tremendous asset to our Democratic Caucus."</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
</blockquote>
]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>SARANAC LAKE&mdash;It wasn't <a href="/2009/politics/hoffman-and-his-movement-sputter-out">the political right,</a> but rather the Democrats who sent a message in Bill Owens' successful bid to <a href="/term/ny_23-special-election/list?sort=recent">replace John McHugh in Congress.</a></p>
<p>"Tonight with the entire country watching, Upstate New Yorkers sent a message," Owens said at his victory party in Plattsburgh. "We came together tonight as Democrats, Republicans, and Independents to seek solutions--to create jobs for our workers, to bring economic development back to our communities, to fight for Fort Drum, and to give all middle class families in upstate New York a fair shake from Washington."</p>
<p><a href="/2009/politics/owens-vote-me-guy-who-loves-jobs-dede-and-not-doug-hoffman">Owens gave "special thanks" to Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava,</a> the Republican candidate who dropped out this weekend and <a href="/2009/politics/scozzafava-calls-owens">threw her support to him.</a> It was by sucking up support in her counties, the early analysis shows, that he was able to beat Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman.</p>
<p>"We both acknowledged her and the courage that it took for her to do what she knew in her heart was right," June O'Neill, the executive committee chair of the Democratic State Committee, told me by phone around 1 a.m. "I think that it swayed certainly her supporters, and people over the last 24 hours have been <a href="/2009/politics/bill-owens-against-rush-those-who-would-abuse-dede">outraged at the muck that people have been throwing at her."</a></p>
<p>Rob Ryan, a spokesman for Doug Hoffman, said he didn't know what effect Scozzafava's presence on the ballot--she drew more votes than Owens' margin of victory--had, and whether her&nbsp; rough treatment by Hoffman's allies had hurt Hoffman.</p>
<p>"Maybe those people voted for Scozzafava because they couldn't bring themselves to vote for Bill Owens. I don't know," <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QucF27WDuBs">Ryan said.</a> "It's something that the pundits are going to be looking at for some time."</p>
<p>&nbsp;"I didn't think we were un-nice. I mean, she was the one, if you ask me, who flipped. We didn't do anything un-nice to her," he continued. "When Rush Limbaugh calls somebody something, well look: a lot of people call a lot of people things. Our campaign never did anything but talk about the issues with her. Okay? We talked about her being a liberal. We talked about her liberal voting record which is very clear. So, you know, to say we were nasty because Rush Limbaugh said something is, you know, I think sort of silly."</p>
<p>O'Neill attacked Limbaugh and other outside voices supporting Hoffman, saying "not here, not now, <a href="/2009/politics/june-oneill-its-not-referendum-its-just-seat-gop-bought">we are not for sale.</a> Glen Beck, Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity don't live here, but Addie Russell and Darrel Aubertine do, and the people listened to them."</p>
<p>In the same vein, Representative Chris Van Hollen, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, released this statement on the national implications of the race:</p>
<blockquote><p>"Congratulations to Congressman-elect Bill Owens on his remarkable victory. Voters in New York's 23<sup>rd</sup> District responded to Bill Owens' message and track record of creating jobs and attracting economic development to Upstate New York.</p>
<p>"This election represents a double-blow for National Republicans and their hopes of translating this summer's 'tea party' energy into victories at the ballot box. Not only did eight extreme right-wing groups spend more than $1 million to drive the moderate Republican - and the NRCC's chosen candidate - out of the race. Now, after losing a seat that was held by Republicans for nearly 120 years, they have to deal with an emboldened and well-funded far right-wing that refuses to tolerate moderate Republicans with differing opinions.</p>
<p>"I am grateful to President Obama, Vice President Biden, House Democratic Leaders, Senators Schumer and Gillibrand, Congressman Steve Israel and the entire New York Congressional Delegation for their tireless work on behalf of and support of Bill Owens.</p>
<p>"With his commitment to reaching across the aisle to help President Obama enact his agenda for creating jobs and getting our economy moving again, Congressman-elect Bill Owens will be a tremendous asset to our Democratic Caucus."</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
</blockquote>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Hoffman, And His Movement, Sputter Out</title>

		<comments>http://observer.com/2009/11/hoffman-and-his-movement-sputter-out/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Nov 2009 11:18:15 -0400</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[<p><img class="alignleft" src="http://nyoobserver.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/hoffman_supporters.jpg?w=300&h=225" />SARANAC LAKE&mdash;Doug Hoffman and his supporters gathered here to proclaim a great victory, the first peak in a populist right-wing movement that would sweep the ruling class out of office starting <a href="/term/ny_23-special-election/list?sort=recent">with a win in this Congressional district.</a> Instead, they came up short, settling with a campaign that <a href="/2009/politics/collapse-dede-scozzafava-moderate-republican-0">asserted conservative dominance over the moderate wing of the Republican Party,</a> even if it couldn't stand up to the Republican agenda.</p>
<p>"This is a race that meant an awful lot to a lot of people in this district, it meant a lot to the people across the country and it meant an awful lot to each and every one of you," Mike Long, chairman of the Conservative Party, said. "We had victory all through this election. No one in the world believed we would be where we are even. We climbed the hill, we got almost to the top of the hill, because we had such a dynamic, sincere, honest person who had the courage and conviction to stand up."</p>
<p>"This one was worth the fight, and it's only one fight in a battle, and we have to keep fighting!" Hoffman, Long's darling of the moment, said during his concession. "We have to stand up and we have to fight against the Nancy Pelosi agenda."</p>
<p>But his loss is a blow to that movement, which had staked itself firmly on his candidacy. Democrats ran a superior ground effort--<a href="/2009/politics/how-labor-works-now-owens">built on a last-minute infusion of organized labor</a>--that propelled Bill Owens to victory. With 89 percent of precincts reporting and Owens ahead by just under 4,300 votes, Hoffman conceded.</p>
<p>Conservatives immediately began bragging about the result.</p>
<p><a href="/2009/politics/how-bill-owens-spoiled-republican-narrative ?utm_source=observer_politics&amp;utm_medium=internal_links&amp;utm_campaign=middle_of_article">READ&gt;&gt;How Bill Owens Spoiled a Republican Narrative</a></p>
<p>"It might be a blow to some people, it's not a blow to us," said Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of the Susan B. Anthony list, which sent over 200 volunteers to work on Hoffman's behalf. "From having to lobby Scozzafava from here to eternity on issues that I care about would be a much more difficult task."</p>
<p>I asked Jim Kelly, an operative who <a href="/4619/conservative-jim-kelly-ready-run-against-rino-scozzafava">began attacking Republican Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava before she was officially nominated,</a> how this would impact the movement that rose up to favor Hoffman.</p>
<p>"We obtained our goal," he replied. "Dede Scozzafava's in her living room tonight. I wish I could give you a better answer."</p>
<p>But there were higher hopes.</p>
<p>At a storefront headquarters in Plattsburgh, <a href="/2009/politics/hoffmans-neighbor-socialized-medicine-and-school-prayer-and-tepidly-hoffman">next to a French caf&eacute;</a> and across the street from Lake Champlain, a dozen Hoffman supporters made campaign calls because "we'd like to send a message to Nancy Pelosi and the rest of the Washington elite today." Red-white-and-blue bunting garnished the windows. The walls were decorated with a picture of Ronald Reagan riding a horse, a picture of Ronald Reagan signing something, a picture of Ronald Reagan chopping wood and another of him driving a jeep as well as a yellow "Don't Tread on Me" flag and a picture of Ronald Reagan (in a white Cowboy hat) reading something. A television was tuned to Fox News, and one volunteer informed the others that "<a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/11/03/doug-hoffman-calls-glenn_n_343676.html">Glenn Beck's</a> been non-stop since like 10--he's not talking about Virginia, he's talking about us!" It was noon.</p>
<p>David Kimmel, the former chairman of the Town of Plattsburgh Republican Party, greeted me with a crushing handshake and an apology for his coffee breath, "it's been a long week." He announced me to the room, noting "just like we want our government to be, we're very open." While he's a registered Republican, Kimmel never worked for Dede Scozzafava.</p>
<p>"I have a lot of friends still in elective office and they say they were strong-armed into supporting her," he said. He gestured around the room. The people working had been volunteering since the office opened eighteen days before, when Tony Maglione roped together enough locals to join an office. Most of the people were working on their first campaign.</p>
<p>Like Jeremy Kain. The special education teacher from Chazy said he was driven to action, because "what basically a handful of guys in New York City did was tell a bunch of us up here that we don't matter."</p>
<p>"I don't care about Tea Parties movements or marches or anything else," he said, noting that he has been to two. "It's not hard to find. There's enough people that are just annoyed."</p>
<p>They're mostly pro-life, and offended by same-sex marriage. They oppose Obamacare. And Obama. "I wouldn't have voted if there was no Hoffman. And I've been voting since I was 21," Jack Brady, a retired NYPD officer told me. "I'm terrified of what Obama's doing. He wants to turn this into a third world country."</p>
<p>Later, they say they like Hoffman. He's an accountant, and that's needed in Washington.</p>
<p>"He doesn't show it on T.V.," Kain explains, "but he is. I've seen him in small group settings--like five, six people--and he's just a great man. We've already had enough people up dancing on stage and look how that worked out."</p>
<p>Even after three months on the campaign trail, Hoffman's delivery is choppy and stiff. Meeting with voters at the Homestead Restaurant in Western Plattsburgh, he deferred to <a href="/2009/politics/there-will-be-challenges">Mayor Donald Kasprzak, who seemed to know half the people there personally.</a></p>
<p>"We've had for the last two weeks and especially the last three days a lot of volunteers--probably five or six hundred volunteers--throughout the district," Hoffman said. "They're all manned with people who have given a lot of time and effort calling and going door-to-door in talking about our campaign."</p>
<p>Hoffman's supporters gathered in two rooms upstairs at this high-rise brick building in the Village of Saranac Lake, watching CNN and the local cable channel as they munched on pigs in a blanket, bacon-wrapped scallops and cheese cubes. The candidate gave an interview to Fox News before disappearing into an upstairs room with Long and other campaign managers. People watched the results nervously. They were <a href="/2009/politics/majority-precincts-it-looks-its-over-hoffman">not breaking as strongly as needed</a> in the southern counties of the 11-county district.<strong></strong></p>
<p>The lobby became a camping ground for the national press. Right-wing bloggers traded war stories from the Ron Paul campaign. Over a Corona, <a href="http://rsmccain.blogspot.com/">R.S. McCain</a> bragged about his distant relation to Senator John ("but I'm not a loser") while he declared someone named Nicole the executive director of "Hotties for Hoffman." Later, I heard him grousing about voter fraud. After Hoffman conceded, he informed the room there was a bar down the street with a last call at 3 a.m. and then started talking about Marco Rubio.</p>
<p>&nbsp;"I don't regret anything," Jeremy Kain, the teacher, told me later by phone. "I'm going to be even more motivated. It didn't work out, but we were pretty darn close."</p>
<p>"I'll tell you what: at first I felt a little bit embarrassed about certain stuff. But the more people became aware of how well this is working, they've been supportive. My wife, my neighbors, and it's not just Republicans. Face to face, at least five neighbors have told me they pulled the lever for Barack Obama and regret what they did," he said.</p>
<p>It was after midnight when the official concession came. The lingering supporters pooled in one of the rooms to hear the words. Long was the only one to stand on stage behind Hoffman--all the Republican officials who had swung by earlier had left. Two women embraced and swayed.</p>
<p>Hoffman's speech was as dry as ever. But after seven minutes, he managed to spark a cheer.</p>
<p>"Let's keep the fight going," he said to applause. "Let's make sure that our voices are heard. Let's stand up!"</p>
<p>"We will fight back!" Someone in the crowd screamed.</p>
<p>"We will fight back. Washington has not won!"</p>
<p style="margin-top: 0.6em;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 1.2em;margin-left: 0px;padding: 0px"><strong>More on NY-23:</strong></p>
<p style="margin-top: 0.6em;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 1.2em;margin-left: 0px;padding: 0px"><a href="/2009/politics/how-bill-owens-spoiled-republican-narrative ?utm_source=observer_politics&amp;utm_medium=internal_links&amp;utm_campaign=end_of_article">How Bill Owens Spoiled a Republican Narrative</a></p>
<p style="margin-top: 0.6em;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 1.2em;margin-left: 0px;padding: 0px"><a href="/2009/politics/democrats-local-national-dede-owens?utm_source=observer_politics&amp;utm_medium=internal_links&amp;utm_campaign=end_of_article">Democrats, Local and National, Thank Dede and Take Credit for Owens</a></p>
<p style="margin-top: 0.6em;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 1.2em;margin-left: 0px;padding: 0px"><a href="/2009/politics/june-oneill-its-not-referendum-its-just-seat-gop-bought?utm_source=observer_politics&amp;utm_medium=internal_links&amp;utm_campaign=end_of_article">June O'Neill: It's Not a Referendum on Obama, It's a Seat the GOP Bought</a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img class="alignleft" src="http://nyoobserver.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/hoffman_supporters.jpg?w=300&h=225" />SARANAC LAKE&mdash;Doug Hoffman and his supporters gathered here to proclaim a great victory, the first peak in a populist right-wing movement that would sweep the ruling class out of office starting <a href="/term/ny_23-special-election/list?sort=recent">with a win in this Congressional district.</a> Instead, they came up short, settling with a campaign that <a href="/2009/politics/collapse-dede-scozzafava-moderate-republican-0">asserted conservative dominance over the moderate wing of the Republican Party,</a> even if it couldn't stand up to the Republican agenda.</p>
<p>"This is a race that meant an awful lot to a lot of people in this district, it meant a lot to the people across the country and it meant an awful lot to each and every one of you," Mike Long, chairman of the Conservative Party, said. "We had victory all through this election. No one in the world believed we would be where we are even. We climbed the hill, we got almost to the top of the hill, because we had such a dynamic, sincere, honest person who had the courage and conviction to stand up."</p>
<p>"This one was worth the fight, and it's only one fight in a battle, and we have to keep fighting!" Hoffman, Long's darling of the moment, said during his concession. "We have to stand up and we have to fight against the Nancy Pelosi agenda."</p>
<p>But his loss is a blow to that movement, which had staked itself firmly on his candidacy. Democrats ran a superior ground effort--<a href="/2009/politics/how-labor-works-now-owens">built on a last-minute infusion of organized labor</a>--that propelled Bill Owens to victory. With 89 percent of precincts reporting and Owens ahead by just under 4,300 votes, Hoffman conceded.</p>
<p>Conservatives immediately began bragging about the result.</p>
<p><a href="/2009/politics/how-bill-owens-spoiled-republican-narrative ?utm_source=observer_politics&amp;utm_medium=internal_links&amp;utm_campaign=middle_of_article">READ&gt;&gt;How Bill Owens Spoiled a Republican Narrative</a></p>
<p>"It might be a blow to some people, it's not a blow to us," said Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of the Susan B. Anthony list, which sent over 200 volunteers to work on Hoffman's behalf. "From having to lobby Scozzafava from here to eternity on issues that I care about would be a much more difficult task."</p>
<p>I asked Jim Kelly, an operative who <a href="/4619/conservative-jim-kelly-ready-run-against-rino-scozzafava">began attacking Republican Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava before she was officially nominated,</a> how this would impact the movement that rose up to favor Hoffman.</p>
<p>"We obtained our goal," he replied. "Dede Scozzafava's in her living room tonight. I wish I could give you a better answer."</p>
<p>But there were higher hopes.</p>
<p>At a storefront headquarters in Plattsburgh, <a href="/2009/politics/hoffmans-neighbor-socialized-medicine-and-school-prayer-and-tepidly-hoffman">next to a French caf&eacute;</a> and across the street from Lake Champlain, a dozen Hoffman supporters made campaign calls because "we'd like to send a message to Nancy Pelosi and the rest of the Washington elite today." Red-white-and-blue bunting garnished the windows. The walls were decorated with a picture of Ronald Reagan riding a horse, a picture of Ronald Reagan signing something, a picture of Ronald Reagan chopping wood and another of him driving a jeep as well as a yellow "Don't Tread on Me" flag and a picture of Ronald Reagan (in a white Cowboy hat) reading something. A television was tuned to Fox News, and one volunteer informed the others that "<a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/11/03/doug-hoffman-calls-glenn_n_343676.html">Glenn Beck's</a> been non-stop since like 10--he's not talking about Virginia, he's talking about us!" It was noon.</p>
<p>David Kimmel, the former chairman of the Town of Plattsburgh Republican Party, greeted me with a crushing handshake and an apology for his coffee breath, "it's been a long week." He announced me to the room, noting "just like we want our government to be, we're very open." While he's a registered Republican, Kimmel never worked for Dede Scozzafava.</p>
<p>"I have a lot of friends still in elective office and they say they were strong-armed into supporting her," he said. He gestured around the room. The people working had been volunteering since the office opened eighteen days before, when Tony Maglione roped together enough locals to join an office. Most of the people were working on their first campaign.</p>
<p>Like Jeremy Kain. The special education teacher from Chazy said he was driven to action, because "what basically a handful of guys in New York City did was tell a bunch of us up here that we don't matter."</p>
<p>"I don't care about Tea Parties movements or marches or anything else," he said, noting that he has been to two. "It's not hard to find. There's enough people that are just annoyed."</p>
<p>They're mostly pro-life, and offended by same-sex marriage. They oppose Obamacare. And Obama. "I wouldn't have voted if there was no Hoffman. And I've been voting since I was 21," Jack Brady, a retired NYPD officer told me. "I'm terrified of what Obama's doing. He wants to turn this into a third world country."</p>
<p>Later, they say they like Hoffman. He's an accountant, and that's needed in Washington.</p>
<p>"He doesn't show it on T.V.," Kain explains, "but he is. I've seen him in small group settings--like five, six people--and he's just a great man. We've already had enough people up dancing on stage and look how that worked out."</p>
<p>Even after three months on the campaign trail, Hoffman's delivery is choppy and stiff. Meeting with voters at the Homestead Restaurant in Western Plattsburgh, he deferred to <a href="/2009/politics/there-will-be-challenges">Mayor Donald Kasprzak, who seemed to know half the people there personally.</a></p>
<p>"We've had for the last two weeks and especially the last three days a lot of volunteers--probably five or six hundred volunteers--throughout the district," Hoffman said. "They're all manned with people who have given a lot of time and effort calling and going door-to-door in talking about our campaign."</p>
<p>Hoffman's supporters gathered in two rooms upstairs at this high-rise brick building in the Village of Saranac Lake, watching CNN and the local cable channel as they munched on pigs in a blanket, bacon-wrapped scallops and cheese cubes. The candidate gave an interview to Fox News before disappearing into an upstairs room with Long and other campaign managers. People watched the results nervously. They were <a href="/2009/politics/majority-precincts-it-looks-its-over-hoffman">not breaking as strongly as needed</a> in the southern counties of the 11-county district.<strong></strong></p>
<p>The lobby became a camping ground for the national press. Right-wing bloggers traded war stories from the Ron Paul campaign. Over a Corona, <a href="http://rsmccain.blogspot.com/">R.S. McCain</a> bragged about his distant relation to Senator John ("but I'm not a loser") while he declared someone named Nicole the executive director of "Hotties for Hoffman." Later, I heard him grousing about voter fraud. After Hoffman conceded, he informed the room there was a bar down the street with a last call at 3 a.m. and then started talking about Marco Rubio.</p>
<p>&nbsp;"I don't regret anything," Jeremy Kain, the teacher, told me later by phone. "I'm going to be even more motivated. It didn't work out, but we were pretty darn close."</p>
<p>"I'll tell you what: at first I felt a little bit embarrassed about certain stuff. But the more people became aware of how well this is working, they've been supportive. My wife, my neighbors, and it's not just Republicans. Face to face, at least five neighbors have told me they pulled the lever for Barack Obama and regret what they did," he said.</p>
<p>It was after midnight when the official concession came. The lingering supporters pooled in one of the rooms to hear the words. Long was the only one to stand on stage behind Hoffman--all the Republican officials who had swung by earlier had left. Two women embraced and swayed.</p>
<p>Hoffman's speech was as dry as ever. But after seven minutes, he managed to spark a cheer.</p>
<p>"Let's keep the fight going," he said to applause. "Let's make sure that our voices are heard. Let's stand up!"</p>
<p>"We will fight back!" Someone in the crowd screamed.</p>
<p>"We will fight back. Washington has not won!"</p>
<p style="margin-top: 0.6em;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 1.2em;margin-left: 0px;padding: 0px"><strong>More on NY-23:</strong></p>
<p style="margin-top: 0.6em;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 1.2em;margin-left: 0px;padding: 0px"><a href="/2009/politics/how-bill-owens-spoiled-republican-narrative ?utm_source=observer_politics&amp;utm_medium=internal_links&amp;utm_campaign=end_of_article">How Bill Owens Spoiled a Republican Narrative</a></p>
<p style="margin-top: 0.6em;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 1.2em;margin-left: 0px;padding: 0px"><a href="/2009/politics/democrats-local-national-dede-owens?utm_source=observer_politics&amp;utm_medium=internal_links&amp;utm_campaign=end_of_article">Democrats, Local and National, Thank Dede and Take Credit for Owens</a></p>
<p style="margin-top: 0.6em;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 1.2em;margin-left: 0px;padding: 0px"><a href="/2009/politics/june-oneill-its-not-referendum-its-just-seat-gop-bought?utm_source=observer_politics&amp;utm_medium=internal_links&amp;utm_campaign=end_of_article">June O'Neill: It's Not a Referendum on Obama, It's a Seat the GOP Bought</a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>&#8216;It Looks Like It&#8217;s Over&#8217; for Hoffman in NY-23</title>

		<comments>http://observer.com/2009/11/it-looks-like-its-over-for-hoffman-in-ny23/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Nov 2009 04:21:42 -0400</pubDate>
					<link>http://observer.com/2009/11/it-looks-like-its-over-for-hoffman-in-ny23/</link>
			<dc:creator>Jimmy Vielkind</dc:creator>
				
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.observer.com/2009/11/it-looks-like-its-over-for-hoffman-in-ny23/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p><img class="alignleft" src="http://nyoobserver.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/hoffman_loses1.jpg?w=300&h=225" />SARANAC LAKE&mdash;It looks like Doug  Hoffman came up short in his <a href="/term/ny_23-special-election/list?sort=recent">bid for Congress.</a></p>
<p>With a majority of precincts reporting, the Democratic Party's Bill Owens maintained a <a href="http://www.watertowndailytimes.com/article/20091103/NEWS09/911039947">lead of over 3,000 votes.</a></p>
<p>"It looks like it's over. Democrats were able to deliver St. Lawrence big. Jefferson County was considered the bellwether and it went for Owens, and the strong counties for Hoffman weren't all that strong: Oswego, Madison and Oneida," <a href="http://mayorgraham.blogspot.com/">said Mayor Jeff Graham, the mayor of Watertown.</a> A good compilation is<a href="http://www.newzjunky.com/"> here.</a> "I think what also happened is once she got out, <a href="/2009/politics/longs-path-back-row-c">coming off line D</a> it became increasingly difficult to compete in the upper forties. To get 45 percent was good but there's an awful lot of straight line party voters out there."</p>
<p>In the end, the <a href="/2009/politics/how-labor-works-now-owens">weight of Democratic get-out-the-vote efforts was enough.</a> No official concession is expected; with over 10,000 paper ballots locked up under court order, the <a href="/2009/politics/ny-23-recount-probably">election will not be officially called for quite some time.</a></p>
<p>UPDATE: Representative Steve Israel, a top Democratic campaign official, <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypolitics/2009/11/israel-on-ny-23-we-won.html">just told Liz Owens won.</a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img class="alignleft" src="http://nyoobserver.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/hoffman_loses1.jpg?w=300&h=225" />SARANAC LAKE&mdash;It looks like Doug  Hoffman came up short in his <a href="/term/ny_23-special-election/list?sort=recent">bid for Congress.</a></p>
<p>With a majority of precincts reporting, the Democratic Party's Bill Owens maintained a <a href="http://www.watertowndailytimes.com/article/20091103/NEWS09/911039947">lead of over 3,000 votes.</a></p>
<p>"It looks like it's over. Democrats were able to deliver St. Lawrence big. Jefferson County was considered the bellwether and it went for Owens, and the strong counties for Hoffman weren't all that strong: Oswego, Madison and Oneida," <a href="http://mayorgraham.blogspot.com/">said Mayor Jeff Graham, the mayor of Watertown.</a> A good compilation is<a href="http://www.newzjunky.com/"> here.</a> "I think what also happened is once she got out, <a href="/2009/politics/longs-path-back-row-c">coming off line D</a> it became increasingly difficult to compete in the upper forties. To get 45 percent was good but there's an awful lot of straight line party voters out there."</p>
<p>In the end, the <a href="/2009/politics/how-labor-works-now-owens">weight of Democratic get-out-the-vote efforts was enough.</a> No official concession is expected; with over 10,000 paper ballots locked up under court order, the <a href="/2009/politics/ny-23-recount-probably">election will not be officially called for quite some time.</a></p>
<p>UPDATE: Representative Steve Israel, a top Democratic campaign official, <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypolitics/2009/11/israel-on-ny-23-we-won.html">just told Liz Owens won.</a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>NY-23: Recount? Probably</title>

		<comments>http://observer.com/2009/11/ny23-recount-probably/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Nov 2009 02:27:10 -0400</pubDate>
					<link>http://observer.com/2009/11/ny23-recount-probably/</link>
			<dc:creator>Jimmy Vielkind</dc:creator>
				
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		<description><![CDATA[<p>SARANAC LAKE&mdash;A Democratic lawyer who <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypolitics/2009/11/the-paper-problem.html">has obtained a court order impounding all paper ballot results</a> said he doesn't expect a final result tonight.</p>
<p>"What's significant in terms of tonight, by our count, <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypolitics/2009/11/the-paper-problem.html">there are going to be about 14,000 pieces of paper</a> out there tonight, be they military, absentee, federal special or any ballots generated at the boards will be maintained at the boards and secured," Frank Hoare just told me by phone. "It's unlikely there'll be a winner tonight unless the number off the machine is eight or nine thousand, which I'm told because of light turnout and the way this campaign's been fought out, I think is unlikely."</p>
<p>Then I cried a little, <a href="/2995/no-end-in-sight-tedisco-murphy-recount">thinking about the 20<sup>th</sup> Congressional Race and the recount that dominated my life for a month. </a>Exit polls are indicating Doug  Hoffman Hoffman running slightly ahead of Bill Owens. Hoare obtained an order last week to make sure that a recount proceeded under legal watch.</p>
<p>Hoare told me he will call Justice Robert Muller to determine what to do tomorrow.</p>
<p>"We left it open, because the view was, let's see what happens off the machines," Hoare said.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>SARANAC LAKE&mdash;A Democratic lawyer who <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypolitics/2009/11/the-paper-problem.html">has obtained a court order impounding all paper ballot results</a> said he doesn't expect a final result tonight.</p>
<p>"What's significant in terms of tonight, by our count, <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypolitics/2009/11/the-paper-problem.html">there are going to be about 14,000 pieces of paper</a> out there tonight, be they military, absentee, federal special or any ballots generated at the boards will be maintained at the boards and secured," Frank Hoare just told me by phone. "It's unlikely there'll be a winner tonight unless the number off the machine is eight or nine thousand, which I'm told because of light turnout and the way this campaign's been fought out, I think is unlikely."</p>
<p>Then I cried a little, <a href="/2995/no-end-in-sight-tedisco-murphy-recount">thinking about the 20<sup>th</sup> Congressional Race and the recount that dominated my life for a month. </a>Exit polls are indicating Doug  Hoffman Hoffman running slightly ahead of Bill Owens. Hoare obtained an order last week to make sure that a recount proceeded under legal watch.</p>
<p>Hoare told me he will call Justice Robert Muller to determine what to do tomorrow.</p>
<p>"We left it open, because the view was, let's see what happens off the machines," Hoare said.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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