Observer » George Fontas

Silver’s Spread and the Connor-Parker-Tingling Cliffhangers

Azi Paybarah — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 17:25:30 -0400

In at least one of today's competitive local primaries, according to some of my favorite prognosticators, the writing is on the wall: Sheldon Silver will be re-elected. None of the people I’ve spoken with have predicted either of his challengers--Paul Newell or Luke Henry--could unseat him, even though Newell has won a fair amount of support and numerous newspaper endorsements.

Silver's job in this case, and perhaps one reason we've been treated to the sight of him campaigning sort-of actively, is to manage expectations.

Yesterday, Fred Dicker quoted an unnamed activist saying, “If Shelly wins with under 50 percent he’s a political dead man.” (Which the New York Post kind of thinks he is already.)

In an email, consultant Joe Mercurio predicted Silver will win with more than 65 percent of the vote. “I think it could go as high as 70%,” he wrote.

George Fontas, a former City Council staffer and smart political guy, put it closer to 75 percent.

Among the tough-to-call races are incumbent Marty Connor versus Dan Squadron for State Senate, and the contest between Milton Tingling, Nora Anderson and John Reddy for Manhattan Surrogate's Court Judge.

Other races to watch are the Congressional primaries on Staten Island, although it's likely that the party-backed candidates--Democrat Mike McMahon and Republican Bob Straniere--will go on to the general election to replace Vito Fossella. In Brooklyn, Real World guy Kevin Powell has mounted a vocal challenge to Congressman Ed Towns. And elsewhere in Brooklyn, both Simcha Felder and Kendall Stewart are challenging incumbent State Senator Kevin Parker.

Predictions? Send them (with spread), please, to apaybarah [at] observer.com or stick them in the comments section.

Reaction to Democratic Special Election Win: Stone, Sheinkopf, Stavisky

Azi Paybarah — Wed, 27 Feb 2008 12:17:41 -0400

Here are some more reactions from the big Democratic victory in last night’s special election, which cut the Republican majority in the state Senate down to one seat.

Roger Stone:

“A coup in the Senate would be a power-grab but Malcolm Smith might find he doesn’t have all the Democrats. Remember the difference between a caucus and a cactus? With a cactus all the pricks are on the outside.

“I expect control of the Senate to be decided in the Nov 2008 election.”

Hank Sheinkopf:

“Winner: Malcolm Smith. Loser: Senator Karl Kruger. Man who thinks he is a winner: Gov Spitzer.”

A Democratic Assembly member:

“Losers are democratic assembly members in districts with democratic senators who by this fall will no longer be the only Dems that can pass legislation. Don't cite me as the source for that one.”

Evan Stavisky:

“This is absolutely stunning. Whether you look at raw numbers, or at percentages, the 48th District is the single most Republican Senate District in the state. And, considering that the Senate lines are drawn using one of the most hyper-partisan redistricting maps in the nation, that's saying a lot.

“Putting it in perspective, the Aubertine victory is clearly attributable to the fact that the Democrats had a far, far better candidate and clearly ran a better campaign. It's a huge win for Malcolm Smith and sets the stage for the Senate Dems to make history this year.”

George Fontas:

“4000plus absentee ballots to be counted. Don't jinx us.”

Simcha Felder Hires Again With an Eye on Comptroller Race

Azi Paybarah — Mon, 17 Sep 2007 09:03:51 -0400

Councilman and all-but-announced city comptroller candidate Simcha Felder of Brooklyn hired another staffer: Eric Kuo, who will be the new new press person.

Kuo previously did press for Councilman Vincent Gentile, a Democrat in the conservative-leaning Bay Ridge section of Brooklyn (the same area that produced Democratic operatives George Fontas, Scott Gastel and Sam Cooper). He also worked for Councilman Oliver Koppell in the Riverdale section of the Bronx. (There are probably some notable operatives from there too, but I'll need some help on that one.)

Felder’s most recent hire before Kuo was an operative with experience in Queens, which happens to be home to three likely opponents: Council members Melinda Katz, David Weprin and John Liu. Kuo's hire, if we feel like parsing the significance, not only gives Felder access to someone with experience in yet another part of the city but may help him, around campaign season, to appeal to any Chinese-American media and voters that aren't locked down by possible candidate Liu. (Kuo told me in a laudibly precise email that he can speak enough Chinese to hold basic conversations but not enough to put out statements.)

Also, Kuo should help with the ultimate Frisbee vote.

Other Democratic officials eyeing a run for comptroller are Assemblyman James Brennan of Brooklyn, and possibly Bronx Borough President Adolfo Carrion (if he doesn't run for mayor), David Yassky, who is term-limited, Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer (who could join a crowded field and run for an open citywide seat in 2009, or run against a first-term incumbent in 2013 when he's term-limited from his office).

Let me know if I'm missing anyone.

Always Election Season for Consultants

Azi Paybarah — Fri, 31 Aug 2007 15:27:29 -0400

This may be a quiet time when it comes to campaigning, but may also be the best time to get a new political company off the ground.

Earlier this month, 26-year-old lobbyist George Fontas founded New Gotham Strategies, LLC. Fontas said his campaign consulting gig will be completely separate from his current job at the lobbying firm, Capalino + Company.

Fontas managed Vinny Gentile’s general election in 2003, ran Gifford Miller’s field operation in South Brooklyn in 2005, and did some work on behalf of a 527 group trying to unseat a ~~state Senator~~ congressman upstate in 2006. So, what’s in store for 2009?

“The biggest concern is switching seats because a lot of that hasn’t shaken out yet,” Fontas told me. Which means plenty of behind-the-scenes work for consultants like him right now.

UPDATE: Fontas prefers to say he was "educating voters" during that 2006 race, rather than trying to"unseat" an elected official. There's more on that race over here.

November Madness

Mon, 30 Oct 2006 12:20:01 -0400

If Fantasy Congress is too legislative-heavy for your taste, there's the more March Madness-like game of Campaign Guru circulating its way around a small group of folks following races nationwide.

Compiled by George Fontas, a former aide to Councilman David Weprin, Campaign Guru offers a quick snapshot of various house races and the candidates. It was conceived of more out of sense of sport than propaganda, so it offers shows what really political-sports hounds consider the races to watch. Only one is in New York (Reynolds v. Davis). The other New York races considered to be in play are on the questionnaire, but only as bonus points.

The format can be downloaded over here.

Fontas is offering the winner $30 gift certificate to J&R. This site will offer bragging rights and a lifetime of notoriety.

Good luck.

-- Azi Paybarah