Tonight, Bloomberg is scheduled to speak at the UFT's 50th anniversary dinner. Lately, the mayor and teacher's union have been fighting over the city's plan to close failing schools and suing education funding.

It’s Triple Crown season, and time (or just an excuse, maybe) for an early handicapping of the 2012 Republican presidential field.

As with horse racing, where the fastest horse out of the gate often fades in the stretch (like Big Drama in last Saturday’s Preakness), early speed in a presidential race can be very misleading. For example: At this point in 1993, the last time Republicans found themselves locked out of the White House and in the minority in Congress, Jack Kemp was a front-runner for the 1996 G.O.P. nomination, running even with Bob Dole in polls. Less than two years later, after he voiced his opposition to a California ballot initiative aimed at illegal immigrants, Kemp was out of favor and decided not to even bother in ’96.

With that in mind, here are some very early odds for the 2012 Republican horse race:

Mitt Romney: 2-1.

History makes him the favorite. Ronald Reagan, George H. W. Bush, Bob Dole and John McCain all finished second in G.O.P. primary races before turning around and claiming the nomination the next time it came open.

There is some debate over whether Romney actually finished second in 2008, since Mike Huckabee actually finished with more delegates than Romney. But Romney deserves the designation for several reasons: (1) he received more popular votes and won more primaries and caucuses than Huckabee; (2) he demonstrated broader appeal; and (3) Huckabee inflated his delegate share by staying in the race even after it was clear he couldn’t win and everyone else had dropped out. (In this way, Huckabee is a bit like Jerry Brown, who fought Bill Clinton clear through June in the 1992 Democratic race, even though it was a lost cause from early April on.)

Since the November election, Romney has been relatively quiet, but he’s working hard to seal the deal with the conservative activists who weren’t completely sold on him last year. Just this week, he made a typically red-meat-laden speech to the N.R.A., ripping President Obama for teaming up with “left-wing law professors and editorial boards” to craft national security policy. There are clear signs of his enduring strength: He won CPAC’s February straw poll, and he seems to have scared John Huntsman, a potential ’12 rival, all the way to China.

Romney’s biggest obstacles last year were his Mormonism and the cultural liberalism that defined the Massachusetts phase of his political career. Three more years of spewing red meat, he hopes, will defuse both issues.

Mike Huckabee: 6-1

The former Arkansas governor may be the toughest candidate to read. He has a substantial base, one that produced a lopsided win in last year’s Iowa caucuses, but what about his ceiling? Huckabee’s success last year seemed directly proportional to the number of evangelical Christians in any given state. Where they had numbers, he won, or came close to it. Where they didn’t, he got shellacked (like in New Hampshire).

Huckabee’s strategy for expanding his appeal is to rely on his simple roots, likable manner, and contempt for the supply-side wing of the party to reach out to blue-collar voters who aren’t particularly religious. And he may benefit from the G.O.P.’s bout with “Shrunken Base Syndrome,” in which moderates are fleeing in droves, thus ratcheting up the influence of religious conservatives. With his weekly show on Fox News, Huckabee has a decent platform to stay relevant and to showcase his best feature, his likability. He’s also making sure to play the same red-meat game as Romney—just take a look at this song he just wrote about Nancy Pelosi. 

Still, there are probably too many Republicans who just won’t be comfortable, either for personal or pragmatic reasons (or both), nominating a Baptist preacher who can be easily caricatured as a religious zealot.

Sarah Palin: 6-1

A few months ago, she might have topped this list, and, make no mistake, last year’s VP nominee retains a large and devoted flock of followers. But there are some tentative signs that Palin is fading a bit, even within the G.O.P.

First, her national visibility has faded (except for the endless headlines about the Palin-Johnston family feud). This is to be expected, considering how far from the mainland her day job in Juneau is. Besides speaking at a pro-life dinner in southern Indiana a few weeks ago and speaking up for Miss California, Palin has mostly stayed off the national stage. This has reminded Republicans that they have other options for ’12.

Also, Palin’s polling numbers in Alaska are declining. When she ran for VP, Republicans touted her as the most popular governor in America. No longer. A recent poll found that 54 percent of Alaskans have a positive view of her, while 42 percent take a negative view. That’s not enough to threaten her job security in 2010 (yet), but it is enough to force her attention back to Alaska. In theory, Palin could opt not to run for reelection in 2010 and still run for president in ’12. But given how thin her résumé is, ducking a reelection fight probably wouldn’t look good.

Again, Palin won an army of admirers last fall that will stay with her for the rest of her life. But the rest of the party may be moving on.

Newt Gingrich: 12-1

Newt was looking for an opening to run last year, but it never presented itself. He’s even more interested in ’12 and has been pushing hard to keep his name in the news—always on behalf of a cause dear to Republican primary voters. Most recently, he’s been shredding Nancy Pelosi over the claim that the C.I.A. misled her about waterboarding. Every Republican has been piling on, of course, but Newt’s attention-grabbing ploy has been to call for her exit as speaker. He also showed up at the AIPAC conference two weeks ago to accuse Obama of endangering Israel.

You can’t blame him for trying, and in a way he’s playing with house money: After his ugly departure as speaker in 1998, who could have predicted that he’d ever again be regarded as a serious contender for the G.O.P. nomination? And at 65 years old, he’s reached the now-or-never point in his career. But while Republicans generally agree with him on the issues, Newt will be a hard sell in a primary campaign. He tends to come across as cold, arrogant and humorless, and memories of his rocky tenure as speaker will give voters serious pause. 

Bobby Jindal: 20-1

The Louisiana governor had his big chance to establish himself as a top-tier contender back in February, and we all know how that went. On the plus side (I guess), his hideous performance back then set the bar low for the future; it might not take much for Jindal to impress audiences in Iowa and New Hampshire. And, probably because the left was having so much fun at his expense, the right’s most prominent voices, like Rush Limbaugh, all rallied around Jindal in February.

Jindal is indisputably intelligent and his résumé is very impressive. He has good reason to take a shot in ’12; even if he falls short (which he probably would), he could repair his reputation and position himself well for a follow-up bid in 2016 or 2020 (or maybe even a spot on the ’12 ticket).

The trickiest part will be handling his 2011 reelection campaign in Louisiana. If he were to run again, he really couldn’t leave the state to campaign nationally until after the November election—about two months before the New Hampshire primary. And his presidential aspirations would complicate his gubernatorial campaign: Elect a governor who won’t turn around and take the next flight to Iowa, the Democratic candidate will say. Would it be worth it for Jindal to give up the governorship for a long-shot presidential bid? The only precedent for his dilemma isn’t really helpful: In 1991, ex-Klansman David Duke lost the Louisiana gubernatorial run-off in early November, then declared his candidacy for the 1992 Republican presidential nomination. But his national bid was a fringe effort that attracted little money, media attention or support.

Field: 10-1

Jeb Bush’s name is frequently mentioned as a ’12 prospect—even by Dick Cheney. But ’12 is probably too soon for any effort at a Bush restoration. Bush is far more likely to pass, hope memories of his brother fade, and then survey the landscape in 2014 or so. He’ll be 63 years old in 2016. Other Republicans to watch include South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford, Texas Governor Rick Perry (if he can survive a primary challenge from Kay Bailey Hutchison next year), and South Dakota Senator John Thune. For now, though, they are all distant long shots.

It all sounds very nice and very humble, as politicians on the edge of utter irrelevance probably should. It almost sounds Democratic. But how sincere is this new humility on the right?

Among the founders of the National Council for a New America, which launched its re-branding effort in a Virginia pizza parlor the other day, there is no doubt a real yearning for a new Republican image. With such members as Jeb Bush, Mitt Romney, Bobby Jindal, Eric Cantor and Haley Barbour, this is an outfit that represents future ambition as much as ideological commitment. None of these men (and they were all male until they persuaded Alaska Governor Sarah Palin to join) want to see their life’s work wasted on a rump partisan remnant. Undoubtedly, they would like to know how to make the Republican Party more appealing.

Yet even in that fundamental endeavor, the Republicans are divided among themselves. While the governors may at least want to look as if they’re listening, a far more powerful faction disdains any talk of dialogue as a betrayal of conservative principle. On talk radio, where Rush Limbaugh is the true boss of the Republican Party, “listening” is for wimps. The only way forward is to charge full-tilt to the right.

All that Republicans have to do, according to Mr. Limbaugh and his imitators, is to wait for the Obama administration to sink under the weight of its own liberalism, because then disillusioned Americans will return the one true faith of Reaganite conservatism to power. Today, America is ruled by “the most liberal—far-out radical, liberal president and Democrat Party ever, at least in any of our lifetimes,” he says, so “the opportunity to contrast the Republican Party and conservatism with what Obama is doing is great. It’s easy. It’s profound.”

In short, there is no need to re-brand, let alone rethink or reconsider. Forget the listening tour. As Mr. Limbaugh put it, “We need a teaching tour.”

That kind of arrogance is startling, given the thrashing that Republicans and conservatives continue to suffer in the voting booths, on Capitol Hill and in public-opinion surveys. The defection of Senator Arlen Specter to the Democrats, in a desperate attempt to save his threatened Pennsylvania seat, was only the latest in a series of severe warnings that the G.O.P. is endangered. In New York’s conservative-leaning 20th Congressional District, an unknown Democrat edged out the leader of the State Assembly’s Republicans—after the national party had virtually announced a victory in advance of the special election there.

The frustration of the hardliners is understandable. The mushy, liberal-sounding rhetoric of the governors on the listening tour must be unbearable to true believers among the dittoheads, who want to hear that the president is a communist and that tax cuts, and only tax cuts, are the panacea that will solve every national problem.

So long as that attitude prevails within the Republican Party, the Democrats need only fear apathy. The oldest saying in politics is that you can’t beat somebody with nobody—and in the eternal contest of ideas, you can’t beat something with nothing.

The first speaker was Florida G.O.P. chair Jim Greer, whom the McCain campaign forced to book his own travel arrangements around the state after he criticized Sarah Palin’s very poor performance in the Katie Couric interviews.

Inside the gym, he did his best to make it up to them.

“Isn’t it a great day to be a Republican in Miami?” he asked, to great cheers. He said that the “way of life on God’s green earth is at stake," and his mention of “the Democratic nominee Senator Obama” was met with such thunderous booing that he felt compelled to add that Obama was “an honorable man.” (More boos.)

Greer said that Obama “can’t wait to get on Air Force One and visit your nation’s enemies” as opposed to “Senator John McCain, a man who has served his nation with great distinction.”

The mention of Palin’s name prompted more high-pitched cheering, and Greer said, “She makes more decisions in one day than Senator Obama might make in one year.”

The crowd started chanting “Country First, Country First” and Greer responded “the political pundits, the political pundits, the liberal media, they won’t let the message get out.”

He stressed how important it was that they vote for McCain because “we know here you don’t get to the White House until you win the state of Florida.”

He argued that “this campaign is about the issues,” but added, “There is nothing wrong about talking about judgment and character too!”

With that the crowd cheered again.

A few minutes later, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush presented reasons why they should vote for McCain. First among them, because he would keep America safe. (“Say what you want about my brother, but he has kept us safe.”) The crowd roared. Also, he won’t sit down with dictators in “Iran, Venezuela and Cuba.” (The crowd roared again.) And he believed in the working man, not just Joe the Plumber but “Suzy the Florist and Harry the High Tech Entrepreneur.”

Charlie Crist, who spoke next, called the final weeks of the race “giddyup time.”

Although his family is hardly at its most popular, the elder Bush brother's endorsement makes a statement about the Republican establishment rallying around McCain. George W. has been encouraging Republicans to support McCain and called the Senator a "true conservative," he has stopped short of an endorsement.

Jeb confirmed that he wrote a check to McCain's campaign over the weekend.

Here's the release:

There's probably more to say. But despite the fact that the event was on the mayor's public schedule, and that the Manhattan Institute called around to invite reporters to watch, the press wasn't actually welcome.

After the mayor arrived, employees of the Union Club, where the event was held, began purging the room, plucking reporters from their seats around white-clothed tables. The Club's explanations ranged from improper attire (no jeans or sneakers) to the citing of strict privacy policies for members.

Representatives of the New York Times, the New York Post, the Daily News, and The New York Sun were all removed or barred entry. (Later, a Manhattan Institute representative said that Wall Street Journal columnist John Fund and two Economist correspondents, who were all well dressed, left of their own accord. Mort Zuckerman, the publisher of the Daily News, was not asked to leave and stayed in his seat at a table with Mr. Bush.)

"It's a private club not a public club," said a club official who refused to give his name. "I'm calling the police."

When pressed for an explanation for the club's policy, he added, "This is the Union Club and there are Union Club rules."

A short woman who worked for the Club also came over to the scrum of intransigent reporters. "Please leave," she said, as Bloomberg spoke to the non-media guests.

She said better explanations of the club's policy could be provided by "Mr. David" whose number or title she refused to divulge. She then added that the "redhead at the bottom of the stairs" could help, if the reporters first agreed to leave the premises.

The reporters did not leave. The lady with the red hair, who identified herself as Carmen O'Connor, the Club Secretary, marched to the foyer and stood in front of a portrait of a man named Lucious Wilmerding. She said the event was "never open to the press."

When asked why it was on the mayor's public schedule, she replied "How should I know? I don't work for the mayor." She explained the Club's policy thusly: "The policy right now is no comment."

An hour later, the mayor left the building and refused to comment. Mr. Bush left soon after, and in brief remarks with the reporters on the street, talked about education and the benefits of greater "transparency."

UPDATE: The Manhattan Institute just apologized for the Union Club's behavior and has put Bush's remarks online. 

Karen Unger will be the campaign's senior advisor for Florida, organizing field operations and grassroots recruiting.

Text of the release is after the jump.

--Jason Horowitz

Former Jeb Bush Campaign Manager Karen Unger to Lead

Mayor Rudy Giuliani's Florida Efforts

New York City -The Rudy Giuliani Presidential Exploratory Committee today announced Karen Unger as the newest member of the political team. Unger, former campaign manager for Florida Governor Jeb Bush, will serve as the Committee's Senior Advisor for Florida. She will help organize statewide efforts on the ground and assist in building the grassroots network.

"Karen's incredible campaign record in Florida speaks for itself. She played an integral role in both of Governor Jeb Bush's successful gubernatorial campaigns and we are lucky to have her," said Committee Executive Director Mike DuHaime. "Karen's experience communicating with the people of Florida will help us spread Rudy Giuliani's message of proven leadership for America throughout the state."

About Karen Unger:

Unger served as the campaign manager of Governor Jeb Bush's reelection campaign in 2002 and was Field Director for Broward and Palm Beach Counties during Gov. Bush's campaign in 1998.

She held several key positions in Gov. Bush's Administration, including Deputy Chief of Staff, Director of External Affairs, and Director of Appointments.

Previously, Unger served as campaign manager for Congressman E. Clay Shaw re-election campaign in 1996 and Rep. Shaw's Finance Director for his 1994 campaign.

At 8:45 a.m., Mike Bloomberg will meet with Jeb Bush and School officials on Chamber Street.

At 10 a.m., the Assembly's Environmental Committee holds a hearing in Albany.

At 3 p.m., the Staten Island Economic Development Corporation discusses "SI Conference 2007" at the Borough President's office.

At 7:30 p.m., U.S. Rep. Gregory Meeks discusses immigration issues on a conference call with reporters.

Also at 7:30 p.m., S.I. District Attorney Dan Donovan, will speak to Brooklyn Young Republicans.

-- Azi Paybarah

Hillary lays claim to some anti-terrorism pork.

John McCain may have a campaign manager and press person in place for his presidential run.

Mitt Romney has hired some Jeb Bush allies.

RunObama.com is looking for signatures.

Eliot Spitzer said (jokingly, I hope) that his inauguration speech may be 45 minutes long.

To Spitzer's chagrin, George Pataki keeps filling vacancies.

Before his inauguration, Spitzer is going out for a 6 a.m. jog in Albany. Reporters are invited.

State Senator Tom Duane is podcasting. First topic: the waste transfer station slated to open in his district.

State Senator Liz Krueger argues for breast-feeding rights.

Larry Littlefield explains health insurance problems by describing a bump on his head.

And above is Peter Vallone Sr., who moderated a forum this morning about the media and blogs.

-- Azi Paybarah

“Bruce said, very openly, that if Rudy Giuliani wants it, he’ll be the Republican Party’s Vice Presidential nominee in 2004,” the operative told The Observer. “And he said that he thinks Giuliani is going to be running in 2008 for President.”

Mr. Teitelbaum has been airing that prediction in political circles for the past several weeks. Of course, the idea might come as a surprise to incumbent Vice President Dick Cheney, whose heart problems have led to speculation that he won’t join President Bush on the ticket in 2004. But Mr. Teitelbaum is not the only friend of Mr. Giuliani talking up the Mayor’s national prospects.

“Do I think he would want to be Vice President? I feel he would like that,” said Howard Koeppel, a wealthy car dealer and close friend of Mr. Giuliani.

“I don’t think Rudy would want to work for the administration if he were offered a cabinet position,” he added. “I think he wants to run something. There have been a lot of Vice Presidents that became Presidents. It would be an opportunity to go to the next level.”

A mere six months after Mr. Giuliani left City Hall, there are increasing signs that he is seeking to ride his post–Sept. 11 popularity all the way to the White House. Even as his allies boost his prospects among insiders, Mr. Giuliani has launched an open-ended national campaign, building a base in the Republican Party by stumping for candidates across the country and becoming one of the most effusive advocates for Mr. Bush. At the same time, he has been maintaining a tireless schedule of public appearances to keep alive memories of the World Trade Center attack--and, by extension, of his own role in guiding the city out of the crisis.

Mr. Giuliani has become a unique figure in American politics. He is at once a national shrink, ministering to the country’s trauma and stress (“The anger, and the resolution of anger, is something people have to confront,” he noted recently), a management guru (his firm, Giuliani Partners, is getting solicitations from across the country) and an all-purpose G.O.P. fund-raising draw (his constant stumping has made him into one of the nation’s most visible Republicans).

“The national party has to make room for this guy,” said Rick Davis, a prominent Republican strategist. “The doors of the party were shut to Rudy for the last 10 years of his career. But he is now the guy who probably has the biggest impact of anyone on a campaign when he goes in to help.”

Mr. Teitelbaum didn’t return calls for comment.

The flatbed truck for Mr. Giuliani’s traveling act is, of course, his performance on and after Sept. 11, which instantly transformed him from a lame-duck Mayor with a turbulent private life into an international celebrity. Since leaving office, Mr. Giuliani has discussed his performance under fire before scores, if not hundreds, of audiences. It’s a subject he never tires of addressing. It figures prominently in speeches and in commercials for Republican candidates across the country.

At times, Mr. Giuliani actively encourages people to keep the tragedy alive in their memories: In a recent interview, for instance, he urged audiences to watch an upcoming HBO documentary on the attacks--a documentary that was not only his idea, but also features images of him striding through the smoking ruins of the Twin Towers.

“Not forgetting it means not forgetting what actually happened,” he said, “as opposed to some highly euphemistic version of it.”

Mr. Giuliani also sprinkled references to his performance on Sept. 11 throughout a speech he recently gave to a crowd of 4,000 cadets at West Point. As the crowd repeatedly interrupted with standing ovations, Mr. Giuliani said: “It’s a war that started in my city. You have to finish this war …. I see the same thing I used to see in my firefighters and police officers in you. You really do remind me of them--the exact same dedication, the exact same spirit.”

Sept. 11 has given Mr. Giuliani the material he needs to bond with the national electorate. His performances after the attacks also produced newfound popularity and fund-raising clout that have allowed him to mend his relationship with national G.O.P. leaders and build up chits with Republicans all over the country. Mr. Giuliani has made no similar effort to build up a base throughout New York State--a fact that strongly suggests that whatever ambitions he has are national in scope.

None of this has escaped the notice of allies of another New Yorker with national ambitions, Governor George Pataki. It’s no secret that Mr. Pataki, who has had a tortured relationship with the former Mayor, views a strong showing in this fall’s gubernatorial election as critical if he is to become a national figure. If Mr. Cheney opts out of a re-election campaign, Mr. Pataki and Mr. Giuliani would be rivals to replace him.

Small wonder, then, that Mr. Pataki’s allies are not about to go along with the Rudy-for-Veep boomlet. “Rudy Giuliani will never be viable nationally,” said Ed Hayes, a supporter of Mr. Pataki. “He may have been good after Sept. 11, but with his marriages and his girlfriend, the Republican right would never buy into him. I actually think Rudy Giuliani would be offensive to them.”

Bush Backer

But Mr. Giuliani’s personal problems seemed far from the minds of attendees at a recent event in Altamonte Springs, Fla. Mr. Giuliani was there for a ceremony at which the state’s biggest firefighters’ union was endorsing the re-election campaign of Governor Jeb Bush. Were it not for the enormous “Bush ’02” signs plastered all over the room, one would have thought that the event’s honoree was Mr. Giuliani himself.

As Mr. Giuliani and Governor Bush strode up to a podium in the packed room, an honor guard greeted the two men. Applause from the assembled firefighters and emergency workers washed over the former Mayor. Florida’s top officials jockeyed to get within camera range of Mr. Giuliani. And Governor Bush’s Washington consultant, Mike Murphy, directed a cameraman and sound crew to capture his client’s appearance with the former Mayor, presumably for use in the Governor’s campaign commercials.

The local reporters seemed at least as preoccupied with Mr. Giuliani’s prospects as with those of Mr. Bush. At one point, they asked the former Mayor what his future held.

“I take the future with a much broader and more fatalistic attitude now,” Mr. Giuliani said. “Whatever happens will happen.”

Governor Bush was less circumspect, suggesting that he was prepared to do his part to help Mr. Giuliani.

“Mayor,” he said, “we don’t have an income tax [in Florida], and there are a lot of New Yorkers here. I’ll be your campaign manager.”

The big unknown is whether Mr. Giuliani’s remarkable celebrity will actually translate into political support for him in the future. For starters, Mr. Giuliani’s liberal positions on social issues, while a boon to him in New York City, will make him anathema to much of the Republican base whose support he would need to be nationally viable. And social conservatives at the national level may be less accepting of his highly public extramarital relationship than New Yorkers have been.

What’s more, every view the national audience has seen of Mr. Giuliani has been through the lens of Sept. 11, through the haze of smoke and fear produced by the attacks. Their first intimate look at Mr. Giuliani came on Sept. 11, as well as from countless fawning minute-by-minute accounts of Mr. Giuliani’s performance in the hours after the disaster. Even his exit interview with Barbara Walters was held against the backdrop of Ground Zero.

The national audience hasn’t yet had its close-up of his less flattering side. “People across the country have seen Giuliani’s toughness put to good use,” said veteran New York consultant Norman Adler. “But they’ve never seen it put to use in the obnoxious way that many New Yorkers have.”

Then there’s the fact that before President Bush would ever invite Mr. Giuliani to join his administration in any capacity whatsoever, he’d have to be willing to overlook the help that the Mayor provided to Mr. Bush’s toughest primary opponent of the 2000 Presidential election--Senator John McCain. And Mr. Giuliani would face stiff competition to fill any vacancy from the likes of Homeland Security Director Tom Ridge, or even Mr. Pataki, both of whom enjoy much closer personal relationships with the President.

Meanwhile, Mr. Giuliani is plowing ahead with his exhausting schedule. Soon he’ll be playing a leading role in bringing the Republican National Convention to New York, which will grant him another opportunity to extol the performance of New York in the wake of the attacks. And he’s continuing to stump for Republican candidates for every office imaginable, in the process building up a collection of I.O.U.’s that may be without equal in a few years’ time.

“No Republican in the country is a more potent political and fund-raising draw at the moment than Rudy Giuliani, and that includes the President,” said Rick Wilson, a Republican consultant who has worked for both Mr. Giuliani and the Republican National Committee. “Right now, he’s just seen as this strong leader who rises to challenges--everything the Republicans want to be.