The ad goes after Cuomo, but the group's main target is the W.F.P., who, in turn, released a statement today demanding Cuomo investigate Faso for his role as an advisor for the now scandalous and defunct Aqueduct deal.

"Faso and his partners were paid up to $600,000 of taxpayer money to protect the public interest. The mess of a bidding process that resulted raises the question: what did Faso and his firm do with the money?" W.F.P. spokesman Dan Levitan said in a public statement.

It's an unusually strong request from the W.F.P. The party's ballot line is now crucial for any Democrat running statewide, and the edict comes just one week after Cuomo recused himself from another investigation, saying the perception of the political motivations behind the probe made it inappropriate.

One year, one of his overmatched squads managed to score an early touchdown against mighty Ohio State, grabbing a 7-0 lead - at which point Mr. Corso called a time-out so his team could pose for a picture in front of the scoreboard. Then the game resumed and the Hoosiers lost 47-7.

Rick Lazio might want to borrow the same trick right about now.

The latest Siena poll has the former Long Island congressman pulling ahead of Governor David Paterson by three points in a 2010 trial heat. This would be a good point for Mr. Lazio to pause, pat himself on the back for his minor achievement, and maybe even frame a copy of the results for posterity. Because just like Mr. Corso's Hoosiers after that early touchdown, it'll be all downhill from here.

The problem for Mr. Lazio, of course, is that there is essentially a zero percent chance that he will face Mr. Paterson and his miserable poll numbers in next year's general election. It's not that Mr. Lazio won't secure the G.O.P. nod; he can and probably will do so. It's that Mr. Paterson won't come within a mile of the Democratic nomination - not as long as Andrew Cuomo is alive and scandal-free.

Within the next few months, Mr. Paterson, who consistently trails Mr. Cuomo by more than 50 points in a potential primary match-up, will probably bow out of the 2010 race, leaving Mr. Cuomo to claim the Democratic nod without opposition. Alternately, Mr. Paterson could fight on and force a primary - in which he'd do well to grab a quarter of the vote. Either way, Mr. Cuomo would be the party's standard-bearer next fall.

And against the popular attorney general, Mr. Lazio will be utterly overwhelmed: the same Siena poll that has him edging out the governor shows Mr. Lazio losing to Mr. Cuomo by 45 points.

To be sure, Mr. Lazio and his camp will spend the coming months promising to erode that lead and make it a real race.

They'll talk about how angry voters are with the status quo and how eager they are to throw the bums out. They'll play up the anti-incumbent (and maybe even anti-Democratic tide) that emerged in the New York City suburbs this fall and they'll draw parallels to 1994, when a similar mood (and a national G.O.P. wave) helped an unknown mayor of Peekskill end Mario Cuomo's Albany reign. And they'll remind everyone that Andrew Cuomo is still untested as a candidate - and that voters weren't interested when he last ran for governor, back in 2002.

And then they'll lose in a landslide.

We've actually seen the Cuomo-Lazio race before - when Eliot Spitzer, who used the A.G.'s office to rack up popularity similar to Cuomo's, smashed anonymous John Faso by 41 points in 2006. The margin will probably be closer next year, since 2006 was a big year nationally for Democrats while 2010 should favor the G.O.P. But it wouldn't be a stretch to install Mr. Cuomo as a 25-point favorite. He's just that popular.

It raises a question: Why is Mr. Lazio even bothering to run?

The easy answer is that he didn't know what he was getting into. Word of his interest leaked last January, just days before the bottom fell out for Mr. Paterson's poll numbers (thanks to the Caroline Kennedy debacle). But it's more than that. The pace of Mr. Lazio's candidacy has only accelerated even as it's become clear that Mr. Paterson is headed for the sidelines in '10. 

Most likely, he's looking for visibility - hoping that a credible enough showing (I held Cuomo under 60 points!) will remind the public who he is and make G.O.P. leaders think of him the next time there's an opening for a significant office (a House seat on Long Island in 2012, maybe?). It's been nearly a decade since his name was on a ballot, so there's some value for Mr. Lazio just in getting his name out there, no matter how doomed his candidacy might be.

But this isn't without risk - something that Mr. Faso discovered this spring, when memories of his horrific '06 showing prompted Republican leaders to give him the cold shoulder when they went looking for a congressional candidate in the 20^th District. If he loses badly (by 30 or more points, say) next year, Mr. Lazio could face similar stigma.

At least he'll be able to tell his grandkids that, for one fleeting moment, he was beating a sitting governor in the polls.

"It's simple: boots on the ground," Bulman, the Saratoga County Democratic chairman and the political director for the plumbers and steamfitters union, told me over lunch. "Which means union support. That's how we won the Murphy race, and I'm not convinced labor will be there--she's got a lot of support in labor, and it will hurt him and I'm not sure he can win."

Until now. With Scozzafava's withdrawal from the race, every union in the district is now backing Bill Owens. He had earned the endorsement of some labor groups--notably SEIU 1199--but had lost some critical others, like NYSUT as well as two central labor councils, to Scozzafava. In a low-turnout special election, the GOTV operations and phone banking the unions provide are critical. Both Ron McDougall, Scozzafava's husband, and the candidate herself are also backing Owens, but the labor support is key.

When I reached Bulman on Sunday, he said he was in Plattsburgh and that the field operations had tripled in the last 48 hours. Alan Lubin, the executive vice president of NYSUT told me that starting Sunday the phone banks had "changed our message"

"We hope to reach just about all of our members through phone calls," Lubin said, reminding me the union has nearly 30,000 members in the district. He said the choice to support Owens over Doug Hoffman, the Republican favorite running on the Conservative Party's line, was "easy."

One clear reason unions are jumping is the Employee Free Choice Act, or card check, which makes it much easier for unions to organize. Both Owens and Scozzafava supported the measure, and Hoffman is an unapologetic union-basher. But the split between the two caused some major labor groups--notably the AFL-CIO--to sit on the fence. Now, according to spokesman Mario Cilento, they're in behind Owens. All of labor is on his page.

The basic thinking is that Scozzafava's supporters would break for Hoffman; she is the Republican nominee, and locked up traditional, loyal, partisans who would not vote for an upstart so long as their party had a nominee. But this might not be the case: if you accept the premise, as Roger Stone so eloquently put it to me, that the race has come down to a conservative and two liberals, then with one liberal dropping out, her supporters would gravitate toward the other.

"What's she at, 21 percent?" said a longtime Republican strategist. "Of that, I'd bet 14 will go Owens and seven will go to Hoffman. Owens at 35 shows he didn't have all of the unions, and Hoffman at 35 shows he has most of the Republican core base. She didn't' pull out to help Hoffman--he's the guy who messed up her party. If he hadn't been in the race, the Republicans would have held their noses and voted for her."

Also, Scozzafava has now given an open endorsement of Owens. (Ed Cox, the Republican State Chairman, described this as "betrayal.") This will hold sway with the voters in Jefferson and St. Lawrence counties, where the assemblywoman is personally known (and runs strongest) to voters.

However, the Republican machine in New York (such as it is) is now coalescing around Hoffman. George Pataki was the first to go on Thursday evening, but over the course of Sunday Senate Minority Leader Dean Skelos, Rudy Giuliani, Jefferson County Chairman Don Coon, Franklin County Chairman Jim Ellis, as well as former State Senator Ray Meier and John Faso, the party's last gubernatorial nominee, and Assembly Republican Leader Brian Kolb. (Many of them had refused anything other than begrudging support of Scozzafava.) Republican leaders in Congress also promised Hoffman a spot on the Armed Services committee.

The real test Tuesday, then, will be which party's apparatus--including all the national forces that have poured in--is better.

More on Dede Scozzafava:

The Collapse of Dede Scozzafava, Moderate Republican

Women for Dede, After the Fact

In a public statement, Wojtaszek said, “The Nassau County Republican Committee has long set the standard for local parties throughout the country, and I have no doubt Chairman Mondello and his team will help us achieve great success at the ballot box."

This helps shape the race up as a referendum on Mondello’s tenure, with supporters of it now free to line up behind Wojtaszek, and critics of it more prone now to get behind Ed Cox, a prominent lawyer who is Richard Nixon’s son-in-law.

Mondello took over the party four years ago, after George Pataki and the establishment tried helping Bill Weld get the G.O.P. gubernatorial nomination. They forced it a bit too much, and rival John Faso – whom Cox was supporting – was able to get it. During that fight, Mondello sat on the fence until the last minute, and, even after the dust settled, wasn’t considered much of a Faso booster. (When called on to cast a vote during the nominating convention, Mondello passed. Then, after everyone else voted and Faso and clinched the nomination, Mondello split his vote between the two candidates.)

Mondello became chair (replacing Steve Minarik), but his cool relationship with the Cox/Faso chunk of the party persisted.

It seems that feud can continue for a little longer.

It turns out there are lots of pots of campaign money out there, just sitting, some being spent, controlled by elected officials who have left office and are unlikely (at best) to return.

Bill Mahoney at NYPIRG put together the above spreadsheet. I asked some of the people on it—several of whom are lobbyists—what they used the money for.

"I haven't liquidated it because, frankly, I haven't ruled out ever running for public office again," said former State Senator Ray Meier, now an attorney with Bond, Schoeneck and King. "Lobbyists make political contributions, so you can ask the broader question, is it proper for lobbyists to make political contributions?"

Good-government advocates—including NYPIRG—have said that accounts should be closed when the officeholder leaves office. Election law allows for campaign funds to be expended for any lawful purpose, which includes legal fees, politically related trips or pretty much anything short of financing arms sales.

Meier could, theoretically, make another run for office. But what about Brian McLaughlin, an ex-assemblyman? The 57-year-old lawmaker was sentenced to 10 years in prison for stealing money and taking kickbacks. His campaign account contains $732,000; it paid attorney (and Senate staffer) Josh Ehrlich $10,000 in the last six-month reporting period.

"I have a contract with the committee, and as I have to do filings or deal with things, I get paid," Ehrlich told me, noting he's been under contract for three years. "I had to deal with the board, I had to deal with the bank. It is what it is."

John Faso, a lawyer and lobbyist with Manatt, Phelps and Phillips, told me his spending over $16,000 these past six months is "entirely appropriate."

"There's no law or regulation against it. I had money left over from my campaign—being a fiscal conservative, I didn't go into debt in any race I've ever run," he said. It's just simply where I may be asked to go speak somewhere in conjunction with someone's candidacy, or if a candidate who's supported me in the past, in particular, is running for office, then I try to reciprocate that support."

"I don't think there's anything that's untoward or illegitimate about that," Faso, who has run for governor and comptroller and may someday run for something else, said. "As a percentage of the total amount I raised, very small amounts were left. We budgeted that way, because you always have unanticipated expenses that occurred at the end of the campaign. It's a worthwhile approach towards budgeting in general that I think individuals and campaigns should adopt."

"He has been approached by several party leaders and donors about running," Tom Basile, one of Cox's advisers, said.

I've heard from several prominent Republicans that Cox has intensified his conversations with party and elected leaders in the past week. Both John Faso, the former candidate for governor, and former State Senator Ray Meier have declined to go after the chairmanship.

That leaves Cox as one of the few credible names in the mix for those (and there are many) dissatisfied with Mondello. Cox previously had been more interested in being on the statewide ticket as a candidate than as a chairman but, according to one Republican source, he feels strongly about the importance of building a centralized party infrastructure and raising the necessary money—some $1 million dollars a year—to help coordinate things in 2010.

Also still jockeying for the post, though not officially, is Henry Wojtaszek of Niagara County. Some prominent Republicans told me that his cause was hurt by the failure of the coup in the State Senate, and it's unclear how much support he has. The knock against him as the party leader has always been that as an upstater, he doesn't have as intimate access to the party's moneyed base in New York City.

State Chairman Joe Mondello's term expires in September, and he has said he will run for another. The only person to openly declare as a challenger for the post is Dan Isaacs, who earlier this week issued a press release saying "we must advocate a Compact for a 'New' New York, one that is based on accountability, liberty, transparency and true reform." 

"Only by acknowledging the mistakes of the past can we bring about real change and revolutionize our government to reduce the state government's bloated bureaucracy and its outrageous costs; eliminate the culture of corruption and self-dealing that defines Albany; and, eliminate special interest handouts," Isaacs said.

Isaacs is regarded in the party as a long shot.

UPDATE: It looks like things are starting to happen for Cox.

Recommendation 6 would bar concurrent service of a county chairman as the state chair. This would apply to Mondello, the Nassau County Republican chairman, who has been the subject of much criticism since he commissioned this report last December. (Steve Minarik, who preceded Mondello in the post, also served as a county chairman, so this is nothing new.) The report calls this concurrent service "inappropriate and demonstrably impractical."

"The roles are—or should be—fundamentally distinct, and the separate demands of each are frequently incompatible. The New York State Republican State Committee needs a dedicated chair unfettered and uncompromised by the demands of running a local county organization," the recommendation reads.

It does not call on the state chair to step down, but rather calls for the drafting of a bylaw amendment by August. Mondello's term ends in September; in the past, his spokesman has said he will run for re-election.

John Faso, a former Assembly minority leader who has called on Mondello to resign, told me he read the Eristoff report Thursday night.

"It's unprecedented for the Republican Party to undertake this kind of study and self-reflection, and I think we'll be stronger for it," Faso said. "I think the recommendations are all very important."

I asked Faso specifically about the county chair-state chair recommendation.

"I do think that in order to really implement the report you need a chairman who is essentially full-time chairman," Faso said. "The report is clear that we have a very large task in front of us. In order to accomplish all of these recommendations, you need to go 24/7."

Dan Isaacs has openly proclaimed a bid against Mondello, and there are rumblings about people like Faso, former state senator Ray Meier and Niagara County chair Henry Wojtaszek taking over.

Wojtaszek, should he be elected the state chairmanship, would face the same conundrum of whether or not to resign his current post. Wojtaszek told me by phone that "we need to review all of the recommendations and see which ones can be implemented." He said he agreed with the report's overall tone.

It was Collins' first appearance at the dinner, Chairman Mike Long said, and he was seated at the head dais. Also up front was Rick Lazio, the former congressman who lost the 2000 Senate race to Hillary Clinton. Both men are possible Republican candidates for governor in 2010.

"I invited him because I got wind that he was doing some good work up there. I brought him in because he's a new face, and we're trying to energize the people around the state," Long said of Collins, adding that he met the first-term executive at the party conference in February. There are no set criteria for the prime seating, Long said, it's usually people who have been "helpful to the party, it's people that I want to give some exposure to and let the world know that we're looking at."

"I like to give those people the opportunity to display their wares," he said.

I asked Long about Lazio, and the fact that there two gubernatorial hopefuls in the same spotlight.

"He's got both feet in the water, he told me last night, and Chris Collins is looking to test the water," he replied.

Joining Long, other party officials, Lee and Lazio up front were freshman Republican representative Chris Lee, talk show host Curtis Sliwa, Assembly Minority Leader Brian Kolb, former assemblyman John Faso, pundit Larry Kudlow, supermarket mogul John Catsimatidis, Rockland County Executive Scott Vanderhoef and radio host Jim Kerr, who served as emcee. Senator Jim DeMint, a South Carolina Republican, gave the keynote address.

Ed Cox, who is also pondering a gubernatorial run, made an appearance, as did George Pataki, who has talked about running for the U.S. Senate, and Senate Minority Leader Dean Skelos.

With the exception of Lazio, these men are in a state of suspension until Rudy Giuliani makes a decision as to whether he will seek statewide office.

Giuliani, Long said, did not attend.

It's not particularly surprising that Marlin, a Conservative Party activist who has long been in the business of criticizing Republicans he sees as ideologically compromised, would say this. But his critique is in line with what some prominent local Republicans, including former Assembly Minority Leader John Faso and State Senator Marty Golden, have been saying, and will only provide more ammunition to Republicans who feel that Mondello hasn't articulated a coherent message since taking over.

County party leaders are expected to convene in September, when Mondello's term expires, to choose a new state leader.

Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos has offered only a tepid statement of support.

I've asked two people mentioned as possible successors to Mondello, Niagara County Chairman Henry Wojtaszek and former State Senator Ray Meier, for their thoughts, and both have politely declined to comment.

Meanwhile, Matt Walter, executive director of the Republican State Committee, sent along this statement:

Chairman Mondello intends to run for re-election this fall based on his record of leading State Committee during some of the greatest challenges ever facing the Republican Party on the state and national level.  Chairman Mondello took over the reins of a nearly bankrupt Republican State Committee in late 2006.  In order to make the state party financially viable, he reinstated the Annual State Dinner and in three successive years, this extraordinarily successful event has hosted such Republican luminaries as Senator John McCain, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, America's Mayor Rudy Giuliani and former Governor George Pataki, while raising hundreds of thousands of dollars for the state party.

Chairman Mondello is committed to keeping the state party organization as an independent entity that serves the 62 county Republican organizations across the state while working closely with Republican elected officials at the federal, state and local level.

In keeping with this philosophy, Chairman Mondello's leadership has focused on building State Committee into a lean, cost efficient entity that provides direct support to Republican candidates and organizations at the local level.