According to several Democrats and political operatives, the short list is pretty clear: Assemblyman Jose Peralta, City Councilwoman Julissa Ferraras, District Leader Francisco Moya and former State Senator John Sabini.

(It’s a bit shorter than the list that emerged right after Monserrate’s brief defection to the Republican Party.)

Peralta is a on-again, off-again, currently on-again ally of Monserrate who is well-liked in the Queens Democratic Party and has strong ties to labor organizations, through whose ranks he rose. One major reason to believe he might not do it is that Peralta would have to give up his safe seat in the Assembly for a not-so-guaranteed race against Monserrate.

Ferreras is Monserrate’s longtime aide who succeeded him in the City Council, in part, by distancing herself from him. Despite her youthful age, she has years (and years!) of experience in the community, and was greatly helped by the Working Families Party, an ally that could prove pivotal if she decided to take on her old boss. Ferreras, it should be noted, would not have to give up her newly acquired seat in the Council to run for the Senate. Also, there might a benefit to being a female candidate running against a man who was just convicted of assaulting his girlfriend.

Sabini won a nail-biter of a race against Monserrate in 2006. Then, being arrested for a DWI, Sabini allies – including the local county organization - abandoned him in favor of Monserrate. Sabini now has a job in Governor Paterson’s cabinet, with a fixed, six-year-term and large salary. It’s not likely he’d give that up for another bruising fight with Monserrate, but with momentum moving against Monserrate, it can’t be ruled out.

Moya is a community activist (who, like Ferraras, started when he was a teenager). He served as a top aide to David Paterson at one point and is close with the Queens Democratic County Leader, Joe Crowley. Moya did just lose a City Council race to Ferreras. But, like Ferreras, he risks nothing in running again for the seat, and, after seeing him campaign, I get the sense he would relish talking about Monserrate’s shortcomings day and night.

Now, there’s plenty of reasons for Democrats and the usual Democratic establishment to move against Monserrate. First, obviously, is the misdemeanor charge. Second is the brief coup Monserrate participated in. It cost the Queens County Democratic Organization the majority leader’s position (since Monserrate insisted fellow Queens Democrat Malcolm Smith be replaced before Monserrate would caucus with Democrats again).

His best chance of surviving the upcoming election is probably if he faces a crowded field of opponents.

The senators, who cost the Democrats support of the State Senate by crossing the aisle to provide the 31st and 32nd votes to Republican leader Dean Skelos, come from overwhelmingly Democratic districts and will both, in theory, be highly vulnerable to party-backed primary challenges.

But, assuming Espada and Monserrate are still around next year--and that they haven't cut some sort of deal with the party by then to flip back--who will do the challenging?

Here, with the help of some smart readers, are a few speculative candidates.

Espada has a number of political committees, but none show how much campaign money he has on-hand for re-election.

Potential challengers to him are:

Hector Ramirez: He’s a county district leader who is Dominican, and an officer of the Bronx Democratic County Organization. When reached on his cell phone this morning, he said he wanted to take a wait-and-see approach, saying things could change a lot before next year's race.

Nelson Castro: He’s an assemblyman of Dominican descent and once worked as chief of staff to Assemblyman Adriano Espaillat of Manhattan. He would need a major influx of campaign cash. Currently, he’s $1,953.12 in debt. A message left at his Assembly office was not immediately returned.

Ramdes Perez: Puerto Rican businessman who has money already, but would have to move into the district by Election Day. Where he’s been running and doing a lot of work in the district already as part of the City Council race he ultimately withdrew from. A message left on his cell phone was not immediately returned. He's raised $156,945 for his Council race.

Yesina Polanco: She was the chief of staff to City Councilwoman Annabel Palma, and is running against City Councilwoman Maria Baez right now. She also worked as the chief of staff to Assemblyman Luis Diaz. She’s Puerto Rican, as is a majority of voters in that part of the Bronx. In a brief conversation this morning, Polanco said no matter the outcome of her election this year, she would not run. Still, her name is out there.

Jose Rivera: He’s an assemblyman and former Democratic county leader of the borough who was deposed in a coup last year. He’s well known in the community and in political circles, but may not have the political support (yet) to be the candidate. A spokesman for Rivera, Michael Nieves, said Rivera and Espada are "on the same side" and discounted the notion that siding with the Republicans in this leadership fight would warrant any kind of primary challenge.

The district:

Espada's district includes neighborhoods represnted by Assembly members Jose Rivera, and Nelson Castro, and council members Joel Rivera and Maria Baez. Politically, it’s also considered the front line in the civil war in the Bronx Democratic County Organization, between the new leader, Carl Heastie, and allies of the leader he overthrew, Jose Rivera. In this uncontrolled territory, Espada unseated a deeply troubled incumbent whose legal woes were, somehow, worse than Espada’s.

There’s 114,537 Democratic voters in the district, only 9,139 Republicans, and 22,0071 voters not registered in any party.

Monserrate has $137,790.27 on hand right now for reelection next year. Right now, there is still an effort by Democrats to woo Monserrate back. If that fails, a primary challenge could be expected. Mentioned as potential challengers are:

Jose Peralta: He’s an assemblyman with strong ties to labor. He’s had an on-again, off-again relationship with Monserrate that was, before the coup, in good standing. He’s been elected to district that largely overlaps with Monserrate's, and is one of the first people critics of Monserrate would turn to. Peralta also is well liked by the Queens Democratic County Organization. It’s unclear though if Peralta would take on the challenge. He does have $18,059.15 on hand already. A message left on his cell phone was not immediately returned.

Alfonso Quiroz: He’s an openly gay Latino who once worked for Mark Green’s mayoral campaign and for City Councilwoman Helen Sears. Most recently, he withdrew from the Council race in that area and is now backing Sears for reelection. He’s untested as a candidate, but generally has an unblemished record with the progressive community and labor unions. He didn't return an email request for comment.

John Sabini: He’s a former city councilman who is the last person to actually defeat Monserrate in an election. That was before Sabini was arrested for a DWI in Albany and lost the backing of the Queens County Democratic Organization to Monserrate in a rematch last year. Sabini took a job with the state instead of running. That DWI may pale in comparison to what Monserrate is accused of. But the district is changing demographically, and institutional types had gone on record last year saying that was one of the reasons they backed Monserrate over him. (He had an unusual counterargument). But still, Sabini is a known quantity in the area. A message left on his cell phone wasn’t immediately returned.

The district:

It’s sort of a no-man’s land, with ethnic rivalries and no strong, central power base. In that vacuum, Monserrate has built a formidable, self-sustaining political operation that propelled him to office, and his former chief of staff, Julissa Ferreras, to his Council seat (with some union help). While it’s also home base to the Queens County Democratic leader, Representative Joe Crowley, the county organization hasn’t been able to demonstrate any notable sway in the area.

There are 79,009 registered Democrats in the district, 12,227 registered Republicans, and 22,269 voters not registered with a political party.

UPDATE: In a brief interview, Sabini said, “I’m open to talking to people, but it’s not in my immediate plans.”

Quiroz emailed to say, "Currently I am focused on helping Council Member Helen Sears get re-elected."

Also, there’s Francisco Moya. He’s a district leader who once worked as an aide to David Paterson when he was still in the State Senate. Moya said he’s “definitely” interested in looking at a possible race against Monserrate next year. He currently works for Cablevision, and lost a race for the City Council in that area to Julissa Ferraras, who worked for Monserrate. Moya’s showing wasn’t entirely impressive in that outing, but in a potential primary, he could get more institutional support from unions and the Democratic establishment.

Other fun facts: Tarek worked at the Queens Tribune too. Also: before joining Gennaro's staff, Tarek worked for State Senator John Sabini, and often was fending off (political!) attacks from the guy who replaced him, Hiram Monserrate. In Tarek's new job, he could, theoretically, be in a position to defend Monserrate.

Here's the official press release from Groznik, announcing his new job:

Councilman James Gennaro Hires New Communications Director

 

New Spokesman Was Editor of Large Weekly Newspaper

FRESH MEADOWS, NY (March 23, 2009) -- Councilman James F. Gennaro (D-Fresh Meadows), Chair of the Environmental Protection Committee, announced today that Queens resident Brad Groznik is his new Director of Communications.

Groznik is the former managing editor of the Queens Tribune, one of the most widely-circulated weekly community newspapers in New York City. Before assuming managerial responsibility for the newsroom, he was a Tribune reporter writing stories about Queens government, green technologies and issues concerning people age 55 and older.

“I’m excited to have the opportunity to work alongside Councilman Gennaro,” Groznik said. “I’ll be helping him to continue fighting against skyrocketing water bills, overdevelopment, flooding and gas drilling in New York’s drinking water supply, as well as promoting a green economy through advancements like alternative energy and sustainable building practices.”

The Councilman also expressed his enthusiasm about working with Groznik to advance the issues that matter to him most.

"Brad has an excellent background for the kind of work that he'll be doing with me," Councilman Gennaro said. "With his help, I'm looking forward to making more New Yorkers aware of the issues I fight for, like fiscal fairness, the preservation of our environment and the rebounding of our city through a green economy."

Addabbo, a term-limited City Councilman, is facing Albert Baldeo, who almost beat Republican incumbent Serf Maltese in 2006.

Democrats are paying a lot of attention to this race because it could affect the balance of power in Albany, where Senate Republicans are hanging onto a slim two-seat majority.

When Michael Bloomberg made a flurry of legislative endorsements last week, he didn't mention Maltese's district,  even though Bloomberg’s aides openly floated the idea of Addabbo running against Maltese back in 2006.

Ferrer’s endorsement, which is officially taking place at the steps of City Hall tomorrow, isn’t his first foray into State Senate politics. In 2006, he endorsed challenger Hiram Monserrate in the primary against incumbent John Sabini.

Held at the downtown bar M1-5, the event's theme was "Unity '08," a reference, apparently, to bringing Democrats together (and not to the group that wanted Michael Bloomberg to run for president).

As the guests trickled in, DFNYC finance director Lewis Cohen decorated the bar with "Obama '08" signs.

"I have no doubt we will endorse," he told me.

"I think people are looking at the total candidate," said City Councilman Tony Avella, also a long-shot mayoral candidate. "He [Obama] stands for change, and we need change in the city.

"It has gotten really bad," he added. "Good legislation languishes in the Council forever."

The theme of Obama for change in City Hall ran throughout the evening.

"I've been for Obama for a year and a half," said Norman Siegel, an attorney making his third bid for public advocate, as Tom Petty played in the background. "I love his intellect, his vision, his idealism. But I disagree with his policies on Pfizer, capital punishment, and the Second Amendment. I'd love to sit down with him and discuss issues like civil liberties--but it's a no-brainier, you vote for Barack Obama."

City Councilman Eric Gioia, a well-funded candidate for public advocate, was less critical. "Every Democrat should do their part to support Barack Obama," he said. "When I think about '08, I think about my little girl, the air she breathes, her school, and her safety. We can't handle another four years of 'Bush-Lite.'"

Onstage, DFNYC spokeswoman Tracy Denton introduced Jim Dean, chair of Democracy for America and brother of Howard.

"Yeah, we're gonna have to work our butts off to get Obama elected for president," he told the audience.

In the crowd I also spotted Luke Henry, a DFNYC-backed challenger to Sheldon Silver; State Senator John Sabini, who will shortly be starting as head of the state's Racing and Wagering Board; State Senate candidate Don Barber; Chris Owen, son of Major Owen; State Senate candidate Jimmy Dahroug; and a representative from Steve Harrison's campaign for the Congressional seat Vito Fossella is retiring from.

When it was Mark Green's turn onstage he turned to the audience and said, "Raise your hand if you organized for Hillary in the primary contest." About about 30 people--roughly two-thirds of the crowd--raised their hands.

"Raise your hand if you organized for Obama in the primary contest," he demanded, as about 20 people raised their hands, and someone hissed loudly. "Now," Green went on. "Who is not yet convinced to go all out for Barack Obama?"

The room was quiet.

"Gender matters, interest groups matter, but agenda matters more than anything," he said. "If you are not supportive of [DFNYC endorsing Obama], you are betraying Hillary Clinton and you are betraying all our history."

If he is approved by the legislature, Sabini will leave his seat and avoid a difficult re-election contest against a challenger who almost unseated him in 2006, City Councilman Hiram Monserrate.

On Friday, I asked Monserrate’s campaign for comment on the nomination. Over the weekend, he issued the following statement:

“We have a looming crisis right here in New York City,” Paterson said. “Because of a dysfunctional statutory system, the New York City Off-Track Betting Corporation is unable to continue its disbursements to the city, the state and the racing industry."

O.T.B. will continue to exist, as is, for the next 90 days, after which it will become a new public benefit corporation controlled by the state, Paterson explained. Had the state not stepped in, O.T.B.--which employs roughly 1,500 people--would have been dissolved on Sunday.

Although he shied away from revealing the financial details of the transfer, Paterson did say that “appropriate legislative reforms” will be passed to allow O.T.B. to pay off its outstanding obligations. He mentioned the consolidation of betting systems and internet services across all the state O.T.B.s as possible avenues for reform. O.T.B. will also likely move out of its current office on 42nd Street to the less pricey Aqueduct, saving the corporation $5 million.

Sabini's appointment to the Racing and Wagering Board requires confirmation from the Republican controlled State Senate. The position pays six-figures and, importantly, is a six-year term.

That's much longer than Sabini was expected to be around Albany, since he was facing a strong primary challenge from City Councilman Hiram Monserrate, who is supported by the Queens County Democratic Organization and a number of unions. Adding to the challenge of getting re-elected, Sabini pleaded guilty to driving while under the influence in Albany last year.

"When we got to the point when [we decided] we would take responsibility for this," Paterson said, "I asked him if he would come."

"He graciously accepted," Paterson added. "And we're very excited about that."

Sabini, who was also in attendance, said, "For far too long, racing has been a shrinking pie. And yet, everyone wants the same size slice. You can’t do that. The math doesn't work. We need to make racing in New York a growth industry."

The unions, it seems, have picked their candidate in this race.

Among the people who voted for the three bills was Democrat John Sabini, who pleaded guilty to driving while impaired in Albany last year. His challenger, Councilman Hiram Monserrate, has criticized Sabini for not taking a harder line against drunk driving.

The first bill upgrades penalties for drivers who injure or kill someone while driving under the influence. The second bill mandates a one-year license suspension for anyone convicted of D.W.I. The last bill extends liability to anybody who serves alcohol to someone under 21.

According to a spokesman for the State Senate, the first bill passed 59-0, while the other two bills passed 60-0. Sabini voted in favor of all three.

The unions are the New York Hotel Workers Union and U.N.I.T.E. HERE.

According to a media advisory for the Hotel Workers event, it has 2,500 members living in the district.