Modern Family will win Best Comedy Series

Glee got all the Emmy love with a series show high 19 nominations -- The Pacific led all nominees with 24 -- but Modern Family was no slouch either. The ABC show seems almost manufactured in a lab with the way it combines the modern conceits of current series with the familiar tropes of classic sitcoms. That warm feeling of nostalgia is why voters will choose Family over fellow flashy newcomer Glee. Besides: Would anyone even call Glee a "comedy series?"

Jon Hamm will win Best Actor in a Drama

All Breaking Bad star Bryan Cranston does is win Emmys. But this year, it just feels like there might be a sea change for no other reason than its time for someone else to win. His biggest competiton is likely Jon Hamm and don't be surprised when the dapper Don Draper takes home the trophy. Hamm has the Emmy "heat" -- he also got another nomination as Comedy Guest Star for his hilarious turn on 30 Rock -- and he's clearly worthy because of his performance. Lost fans hoping for a Matthew Fox win because the series wrapped up in the spring, however, shouldn't hold their breath. Don't forget: James Gandolfini didn't win for the final season of The Sopranos. Like Fox-y will?

Amy Poehler will win Best Actress in a Comedy

The beloved Parks and Recreation could only muster two nominations -- one for star Amy Poehler and one for best theme song. And while it does have a great theme song, expect Poehler to take home the one Parks trophy that will matter. There is history here: America Ferrara, Tina Fey and last year's winner, Toni Collette, were first time nominees on rookie-ish shows who won (Parks and Rec had a six-episode season one), and in all cases their victories seemed like a "shock." If Poehler were to win, people would certainly be surprised, but her work on Parks and Recreation -- turning her character from a one-note Michael Scott clone into a layered, well-meaning and original human being -- deserves as many accolades as possible.

Chris Colfer will win Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy

One of the biggest surprises during Thursday's nominations was Chris Colfer being selected for Glee. The young star -- who has no previous television credits -- is a scene stealer on the show as the newly out-of-the-closet Kurt Hummel. That's all well and good, but that Colfer can also flash Emmy voters his scenes from the Glee episode "Theatricality" -- which centered on Kurt and his dad coming to terms with their relationship -- is the cherry on top of what feels like an obvious win. Apologies Neil Patrick Harris: You're great. You just aren't Kurt.

The Tonight Show with Conan O'Brien will win Best Variety, Music or Comedy Series

If you were an Emmy voter and had the chance to put Conan O'Brien on NBC one last time -- the Emmys are on NBC this year -- wouldn't you do everything in your power to make it happen, even if Conan wasn't the most deserving nominee? Thought so.

It certainly didn’t take long for ABC entertainment president Stephen McPherson to fill the void left by Ben Silverman in the “what is he thinking?” department. Case in point: The news earlier this week that ABC is teaming with Friends creator Marta Kauffman for an adaptation of The Time Traveler’s Wife. On the surface, this seems like a good idea, especially in light of the feature film version of Audrey Niffenegger’s novel grossing over $21 million thus far at the box office. The only problem? Apparently everyone at ABC forgot that NBC tried doing their own twist on The Time Traveler’s Wife already, with the similarly themed (and long-canceled) series Journeyman. (In Mr. McPherson’s defense, the novel did come first and, supposedly, The Time Traveler’s Wife has been in the works at the network for a while.) This bit of hilarity comes on the heels of ABC’s latest roster of new shows for the fall, which include a Lost rip-off (Flash Forward), a remake (V), and new comedy series’ like Hank (with Kelsey Grammer) and The Middle (with Patricia Heaton). Looks like someone is out of ideas! But fear not, Mr. McPherson: We’ve come up with four potential new shows to help save your third place network.

Missing

Our pitch: It’s about a group of interconnected “strangers” (played by a United Nations–like group of actors, fronted by James Van Der Beek) on a flight from Australia to Los Angeles that crash-lands on a mysterious island. Expect time travel, red herrings and polar bears.

Steve McPherson’s possible response: “This sounds like Lost, but different! Sold!”

One Day

Our pitch: A special agent (Jason Patric) at a government agency has 24 hours to thwart a terrorist attack against America using any means necessary (read: torture!). As an added bonus, the show will run in “real time.”

Steve McPherson’s possible response: “Why hasn’t anyone else thought of this?”

Stunted Expansion

Our pitch: A single camera comedy revolving around the wacky antics of the Bloom family, a rogue’s gallery featuring an everyman dad, his awkward son, boozing mother, incarcerated father and magician brother, among others. Henry Winkler will do the voice-over narration.

Steve McPherson’s possible response: “We can pair this with The Middle!”

Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip

Our pitch: From Aaron Sorkin comes a behind-the-scenes look at a late-night sketch comedy show. Matthew Perry and Bradley Whitford co-star.

Steve McPherson’s possible response: “This is gonna be the biggest hit EVER!”

The final season of Lost isn’t starting for another five months, but just this week we found out the apparent title of the premiere, thanks to a viral video made with the help of creators Damon Lindelof and Carlton Cuse (the episode is titled “LA X;” the space is deliberate). And that’s already on top of knowing that at some point during the season Dominic Monaghan, Ian Somerhalder, Jeremy Davies and Elizabeth Mitchell will all return, despite their characters being presumed dead. Such is life in the spoilerrific 21st century: Information has run amok to the point where show runners are willing to let secrets spill just to control the message. Matthew Weiner doesn’t play by those rules. Despite this new climate, the Mad Men creator has kept a tight lid on future plotlines of the third season (premiering Sunday at 10 on AMC), to the point where maybe even the cast members aren’t sure what to think. (John Slattery recently told the Observer that what happens this year is “unusual.”) Mr. Weiner is so guarded, in fact, that he doesn’t want the new season’s calendar date to be spoiled beforehand. The man is truly old school.

Don’t worry: We won’t spill the beans. Though we will say that the episode, titled “Out of Town,” takes place a not very significant amount of time away from the close of season two. And that’s a good thing, because it means all the messy loose ends that Mr. Weiner left behind are still messy and loose. Don Draper (the now-ubiquitous Jon Hamm, who has done so much media this week that we wouldn’t be surprised if he popped up at the Starbucks around the corner to give an interview) is still treading the line between tortured everyman and unrepentant cad; his wife Betty (January Jones, waiting patiently for that Grace Kelly biopic) is still tightly wound and willfully naive; his company, Sterling Cooper, is still going through various culture shock changes; and his co-workers, specifically the wonderfully smarmy Pete Campbell (Vincent Kartheiser, worthy of a 2010 Emmy award based on this episode alone), are still fighting with each other like pigs jockeying for position at the trough. The ‘60s are barreling forward, but it seems everyone is trying to slow them down just a little bit to catch their collective breath.

“Out of Town,” which centers mostly on Don going on a business trip to Baltimore with Sal (Bryan Batt, filled with wide-eyed sympathy) in an effort to keep client London Fog happy—says Don, hilariously, to ease their fears: “There will be fat years and there will be lean years, but it is going to rain”—is one of the more leisurely-paced episodes in terms of plotting that Mad Men has given us. Much like his mentor, David Chase, Mr. Weiner is content to let his series wallow comfortably in a space where nothing really happens, yet everything is of utmost import. Of course, that’s the funny part about Mad Men: The plot twists and turns that Mr. Weiner is so careful to keep under wraps aren’t the really important. Instead, it’s the characters he’s created and how they react to the world around them that keeps us coming back. The season three premiere plants seeds for future conflicts—we’re already salivating at the thought of Pete going toe-to-toe with Ken Cosgrove for a promotion—but what you’ll be talking about on Monday morning are the little things. Towards the tail end of the episode, Don gives a look to his daughter after she requests the pilot wings she found in his travel bag, that will break your heart and infuriate you all at once. And that’s what makes Mad Men a true rarity in the television landscape here in 2009: It’s spoiler proof specifically because the truly surprising moments are of a more ethereal quality that can't be summed up in a casting reveal. Lost, this is not.

Sometimes we actually find ourselves wondering what we’re going to needlessly obsess over once Lost shuffles off this mortal coil in May of next year. Case in point: We used the end-of-the-world thunderstorms yesterday afternoon as an excuse to spend hours catching up on Saturday’s Lost panel at Comic-Con, which featured things both slight (Nestor Carbonell eye-liner jokes!) and revealing (Kate didn’t actually kill her stepfather?). You can watch most of the panel with creators Carlton Cuse and Damon Lindelof right here. In the meantime, however, here are three things we learned from the Comic-Con presentation.

We’re Getting the Band Back Together!

Executive producers Damon Lindelof and Carlton Cuse were, not surprisingly, very hush-hush on specifics for the final season, offering only that they “want the show to feel like a loop closing in this final year.” They also helpfully said that while season five was “the time travel season,” season six would be something else entirely. Could that something else be a show full of zombies? Maybe! Both Dominic Monaghan and Ian Somerhalder (who play the long dead Charlie and Boone, respectively) have been tapped to return and Messrs. Cuse and Lindelof used Comic-Con to confirm that both Elizabeth Mitchell and Jeremy Davies (who play the presumed dead Juliet and definitely dead Daniel Faraday) would have a presence in the final season as well. Additionally, the promo poster features Michelle Rodriguez and Adewale Akinnuoye-Agbaje (Ana Lucia and Mr. Eko—you guessed it—both dead). Guess that whole “Let’s detonate a Hydrogen bomb and reset the series!” trick actually worked. No word yet on whether Nikki and Paolo will make it back for the reunion, however.

Michael Emerson’s Next Role: Comedy Superstar!

Special guests were rampant during the panel, as stars Jorge Garcia, Josh Holloway and even Mr. Monaghan all showed up to the delight and glee of the 6,000 assembled fans. But, as usual, we only had eyes for Michael Emerson. Wearing what appeared to be McLovin’s vest from Superbad, our favorite nefarious villain brought the house down with a couple of tongue-in-cheek parodies and dripped such sarcasm that “slippery when wet” signs were probably needed in his wake. We had been worried that Mr. Emerson would forever be typecast as an intellectual bad guy, but his appearance at Comic-Con makes us think an Alec Baldwin-on-30 Rock-type role awaits him post Lost. Hooray!

Don’t Stop Believin’!

If you like tidy solutions, prepare to be frustrated. During the Q&A portion of the panel, Mr. Lindelof said that the final season would answer “everything that matters.” Whatever loose ends are left dangling when the curtain falls on Lost, you can be certain that Messrs. Cuse and Lindelof will say they didn’t actually matter. While both men have stated that they won’t end their iconic series like David Chase ended The Sopranos, it’s clear they’ve taken one page out of his playbook: Always leave yourself a loophole. Now excuse us while we try to figure out what happened to the Russian guy in the Pine Barrens.

Now that the geeks have really inherited the earth, Comic-Con has become this weird amalgam of legitimacy (say hello to James Cameron’s long-awaited Avatar!) and, well, lameness (watch the cast of the now-canceled ABC Family series Middleman read through a lost script!). Since this horse-and-buggy show gets under way in San Diego tomorrow, chances are you won’t be making a trek to the festivities. Not to worry! Here are some things to watch for from the comfort of your own Web browser.

What about Avatar anyway?

Ten years in the making and with enough hype to cause even Michael Bay to blush, James Cameron’s Avatar will have an unveiling at Comic-Con on Thursday in the run-up to its December release date. The 3-D behemoth, which reportedly runs over two and a half hours, is the White Whale of the 2009 movie season: Will it be a huge blockbuster? An Oscar favorite? A monumental dud? Will Avatar change the way we watch movies? Whatever the case, expect the footage to get hyperbolic praise from all corners of the blogosphere. Consider this: The notoriously evenhanded Steven Soderbergh called the footage he saw from Avatar “the craziest shit I’ve ever seen.”

Two RDJ’s Are Better Than One!

If you like Robert Downey Jr., then Comic-Con is for you! The now-A-list star has two blockbusters making appearances this week: First, the Guy Ritchie–directed Sherlock Holmes, which hits theaters on Christmas Day and looks like a combination of Pirates of the Caribbean and Bad Boys; figure on a new trailer and talk about how much “fun” this movie is going to be. And then there’s also a little something called Iron Man 2. One of the key bits of news coming out of Comic-Con will be whatever footage director Jon Favreau doles out to waiting fanboys. Hopefully, it’s something showcasing Mickey Rourke, who has apparently gone all Colonel Kurtz for his role as a Russian mobster–turned–supervillain. To wit: His character gets drunk and talks to his pet cockatoo.

LOST!

It just wouldn’t be Comic-Con without a panel about Lost, so mark your calendars for Saturday, since that’s when the secrets about the new season will be spilled. And by “secrets,” we mean red herrings and random footage that may or may not have anything to do with the upcoming final season. Lest you forget, last year’s Comic-Con clip, featuring Dr. Marvin Candle talking about time travel with an off-camera Daniel Faraday, never actually happened during season five, and couldn’t have happened since Daniel died. Unless it did happen and season five took place on an alternate timeline and everything we saw last year was just … Oh crap, our nose is bleeding again. 

While thousands of articles have been written about the coming demise of network television and the simultaneous fracturing of the viewing audience, one of the worst epidemics facing television shows in 2009 is a total lack of surprise. Anyone who has visited E! Online or Entertainment Weekly in the last six months knew that Mr. Knight and Ms. Heigl were most likely on their way out of Grey’s. As television audiences become more attuned to searching out entertainment news, the conventional ways that stories are told seem more and more obsolete.

To wit: No matter how many cones of silence are erected around the Grey’s Anatomy writers room this summer, we’ll all know what happens to Izzie and George based on what happens to Ms. Heigl and Mr. Knight—if they return as series regulars for season seven, they’ll live; if they don’t, they’ll die. Talk about letting the air out of the balloon. After J.R. got shot on Dallas, we doubt anyone was scouring websites to see if Larry Hagman was going to hold to his contract for another year.

It’s not just Grey’s Anatomy either. When Elizabeth Mitchell signed on to the pilot of ABC’s sci-fi series V, every Lost fan assumed her character, Juliet, would be the one to die in the season finale. And, lo and behold, as the episode drew to a close, there was Juliet dangling above a deep chasm and falling to her supposed death … only to wake up and heroically detonate a hydrogen bomb, presumably killing her for good. Was this shocking to anyone?

Even on The Office, this problem arises: Amy Ryan, who starred this season in seven episodes as Michael Scott’s true love, Holly, made a “surprise” return to Dunder Mifflin last night. But since Ms. Ryan is busy being a working actress, the episode ended without their blissful reunion. Despite having a truly great season finale, any tension that The Office might have been able to build with regards to Michael and Holly was totally dismissed out-of-hand: Ms. Ryan is never going to be a full-time cast member, so her character’s love affair with Michael could never last.

We realize that maybe everyone isn’t as fluent in these comings and goings as we are, but the fact remains that it has become harder and harder to legitimately surprise the audience. At this point, with Spoiler Culture out of the barn, the question needs to be asked: Should television series’ even attempt to end their seasons on cliffhangers anymore? We guess you’ll just have to tune in next fall to find out. …

Tuesday: Desperate Hours
Watching Mickey Rourke’s devastating turn in The Wrestler, we couldn’t help but notice how simply exhausted the man seemed. It was as if the weight of a lifetime came crashing down on him all at once; the performance wasn’t so much acting as it was lived. With Desperate Hours, the opposite is true: Mr. Rourke is a live wire of manic and dangerous energy, an unstoppable force unconcerned with anything that the future might hold. The film, a remake of the Humphrey Bogart non-classic, has plenty of flaws—notably Lindsay Crouse’s Southern accent—but Mr. Rourke’s committed performance isn’t one of them. [Encore Mystery, 4 a.m.]

Wednesday: Lost
Things to keep in mind as we head into the two-hour season-five finale of Lost: Once pragmatic leader Jack (our beloved Matthew Fox, unfortunately pushed to the sidelines over the course of the past season) is planning on detonating a hydrogen bomb in 1977 to ensure that everything we’ve seen happen over the course of the series never does. Meanwhile, in the present day (or do we call it the future?), John Locke (Terry O'Quinn, full of purpose) is on a pilgrimage to kill the may-or-may-not-be-real mystic known as Jacob, an entity he’s been obsessing over for three seasons. There's also something lying in the shadow of the statue. Or so we've been told. Lost, as always, is mandatory viewing. But this season, with its confusing leaps of time travel and logic, has been frustrating us from the start. The answers have been plentiful (in the finale, expect to find out more about the Numbers), but we're starting to get a little bit tired of the questions. [ABC, 9 p.m.]

Thursday: 30 Rock
Is it possible for a television show to be too good? If so, 30 Rock definitely fits into that category. Each week, Tina Fey’s still-fledgling baby—despite being considered a “hit,” 30 Rock draws in only around six million viewers per episode—is so perfectly executed from top to bottom that we’ve begun to take it for granted. The season-three finale—featuring guest stars Clay Aiken, Elvis Costello, Sheryl Crow, Mary J. Blige and Alan Alda—is sure to be loaded with more laughs per capita than any other sitcom on television. We only hope that when it’s over, we don’t just shrug it off. [NBC, 9:30 p.m.]

Friday: Ghost World
If we were forced to make a list of our 20 favorite movies of all time, there is a very good chance Ghost World would find its way on there. Terry Zwigoff’s adaptation of Daniel Clowes' graphic novel—Mr. Clowes also wrote the taut script—is, simply, caustic brilliance. Consider the cast: Scarlett Johansson, never better, in one of those early roles that pointed her in the direction of “indie darling”; Steve Buscemi, shy and touching, as a reclusive loser who is resigned to his social standing; and Thora Birch, playing just about the biggest pill we’ve ever seen (and that’s a compliment). After spending the week dealing with unctuous co-workers and sweaty commutes, sit back on Friday night and wallow in Ghost World’s bitterness. You won’t be sorry. [HDNet, 4:30 p.m.]

While thousands of words have been written about the lack of ethnic diversity on primetime television, people seem to be ignoring the fact that nearly every show has become one big blob of grey matter. To wit: while we love that the white-hat wearing heroes of yesteryear have been replaced by dark and twisty characters like Jack Shephard from Lost, Jack Bauer from 24 and even Meredith Grey on Grey’s Anatomy (the very definition of dark and twisty), the muddying of the waters has had a boomerang effect on villains. Basically: they aren’t bad anymore! Even people ostensibly set up to be heartless bastards—Benjamin Linus on Lost and, recently, Tony Almeida on 24, to name two—have been given shades of ambiguity and motives that could possibly be construed as righteous. Don’t even get us started on the ladies! Not to focus solely on Lost, but remember when Juliet was this foul wench of manipulation? Now she’s shacking up with Sawyer and making sandwiches, teary eyed at the mere thought of losing her domestic bliss. Then there’s Gossip Girl’s Blair and Serena, both equally set-up to be Mean Girls and yet reduced to frenemies who routinely share warm hugs.

It seems then that only Ms. Trachtenberg has been given the freedom to embrace her inner scoundrel. And thank goodness! Even while she was behaving like a Bible-thumping, Carrie Underwood fan (if you haven’t been watching, just go with it), it was clear that Georgina’s menace lurked just below the surface, waiting to lash out like the shark in Jaws. Television needs more actresses like Ms. Trachtenberg, unafraid to go totally bad. (That she’s trapped in something as benign as NBC’s Mercy has us a bit concerned, but since we fully expect that show to get canceled before the New Year, we’re not that worried.) To quote Georgina: “You can tell Jesus that the bitch is back.” Amen, sister. And not a moment too soon.

Scott Adsit, 30 Rock

We realize Scott Adsit—Pete Hornberger on the NBC series; y’know, the bald guy—is totally BFF with Tina Fey from back in their days at Second City, but this guy is literally stealing money from NBC. Put it this way: Mr. Adsit made a guest appearance on ABC's Life on Mars, which is fine, until you realize he had more lines of dialogue in that one episode than he gets on a monthly basis over on 30 Rock. Not even the underused Jane Krakowski has time to guest star on other networks.

Chace Crawford and Taylor Momsen, Gossip Girl

During the first half of this Gossip Girl season, Chace Crawford would go episodes on end without appearing; during the second half, Taylor Momsen has gone incognito. While in recent weeks they’ve both gotten more to do—Mr. Crawford’s Nate got back together with Blair; Ms. Momsen’s Jenny had a Sweet 16 party—the show seems increasingly less interested in their misadventures. Maybe for season three they can both be put on an installment plan?

Ken Leung, Lost

Lost is the king of wasting series regulars. This season especially; thanks to plotting that could only be described as scattered, almost every actor has gotten short shrift. Even star Matthew Fox has been relatively ignored—he spent a recent episode making sandwiches and taking a shower. (Seriously.) But no one has gotten it worse than Ken Leung. Added to the cast last season, Mr. Leung—best known as the guy who befriended Uncle Junior on The Sopranos—goes weeks at a time without uttering more than a couple of caustic sentences. He’s the T.R. Knight of Lost without any of the messy behind the scenes problems; if you did a shot of whiskey every time Mr. Leung’s Miles spoke, you’d stay relatively sober. And while this week’s episode is being billed as Miles-centric, we wouldn’t get too excited. A rule of thumb for Lost: if a character that hasn’t done much all of a sudden becomes the focal point of an episode, there is a good chance they aren’t long for the series. Mr. Leung’s status as a regular cast member might be stripped by tomorrow night.

Don’t get us wrong; we bow down to the altar of Mr. Fox’s portrayal of Jack Shephard on Lost. He’s made Jack a single-minded and egomaniacal opportunist who will do anything to get his own way. He’s such an anti-hero that, at this point, Jack has become more of a villain than anything else. This deconstruction has afforded Mr. Fox with a wide palette of human emotions to draw from, and he always delivers. He never gets the praise of an actor like James Gandolfini, or even Jon Hamm, but Mr. Fox has been every bit their equal since Lost began. He’s the quintessential television star. And that’s where he needs to stay.

The facts are indisputable. Mr. Fox is good looking, but not movie star good looking—no one would confuse him with Brad Pitt; he’s talented, but not movie star talented—if you have doubts about this, we would direct you to his performance in Vantage Point, where he gets steamrolled by a sleepwalking Dennis Quaid; and he’s got presence, but not movie star presence—there’s no way Mr. Fox could ever carry a film on his back, when he can barely manage to carry a television show without a call sheet full of supporting players. (Also, remember Haunted? We didn't think so!)

So do us a favor, Matthew Fox: find another series when Lost ends—something about a crooked cop or morally compromised lawyer. Maybe try putting your inherent skill at villainy to good use. We don't really care what you do just as long as it airs on television. We need to see the half-cry on a weekly basis!