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	<title>Observer &#187; Mahmoud Ahmadinejad</title>
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		<title>Observer &#187; Mahmoud Ahmadinejad</title>
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		<title>Disgrace at the U.N.</title>

		<comments>http://observer.com/2012/09/disgrace-at-the-u-n/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Sep 2012 19:38:53 -0400</pubDate>
					<link>http://observer.com/2012/09/disgrace-at-the-u-n/</link>
			<dc:creator>The Editors</dc:creator>
				
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://observer.com/?p=265716</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>It is hard to know which is the greater affront: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad lecturing the world about the rule of law, as he did at the United Nations on Sept. 24, or Mahmoud Ahmadinejad spewing his anti-Semitic trash on Yom Kippur, as he was scheduled to do before the General Assembly on Sept. 26.</p>
<p>In either case, the U.N. once again demonstrated its institutional contempt for Israel. <!--more-->Year after year, the U.N. has allowed itself to be used as a platform for virulent anti-Semitism, and not all of it from the mouth of Mr. Ahmadinejad. Indeed, the coddling of anti-Semites is one of the U.N.’s most durable traditions—remember that the General Assembly condemned Zionism as a form of racism in the mid-1970s.</p>
<p>That mind-set hasn’t changed much—otherwise the audience for Mr. Ahmadinejad’s diatribes would have disappeared years ago. It hasn’t. Indeed, the fact that he was allowed to speak on the topic of international law should tell us all we need to know about the view of some powerful functionaries at the U.N.</p>
<p>Israel’s U.N. ambassador, Ron Prosor, said that asking Mr. Ahmadinejad to speak about the rule of law was akin to “appointing an arsonist as fire chief.”</p>
<p>But it’s actually worse than that. Somebody at the U.N. clearly is willing to hand this arsonist a few matches. And somebody seems eager to see the results.</p>
<p>Israel has known for years that it should expect nothing but insults from the U.N. General Assembly. Still, it is imperative to remind fair-minded people in the U.S. and elsewhere of this ongoing outrage.</p>
<p><em>editorial@observer.com</em></p>
]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It is hard to know which is the greater affront: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad lecturing the world about the rule of law, as he did at the United Nations on Sept. 24, or Mahmoud Ahmadinejad spewing his anti-Semitic trash on Yom Kippur, as he was scheduled to do before the General Assembly on Sept. 26.</p>
<p>In either case, the U.N. once again demonstrated its institutional contempt for Israel. <!--more-->Year after year, the U.N. has allowed itself to be used as a platform for virulent anti-Semitism, and not all of it from the mouth of Mr. Ahmadinejad. Indeed, the coddling of anti-Semites is one of the U.N.’s most durable traditions—remember that the General Assembly condemned Zionism as a form of racism in the mid-1970s.</p>
<p>That mind-set hasn’t changed much—otherwise the audience for Mr. Ahmadinejad’s diatribes would have disappeared years ago. It hasn’t. Indeed, the fact that he was allowed to speak on the topic of international law should tell us all we need to know about the view of some powerful functionaries at the U.N.</p>
<p>Israel’s U.N. ambassador, Ron Prosor, said that asking Mr. Ahmadinejad to speak about the rule of law was akin to “appointing an arsonist as fire chief.”</p>
<p>But it’s actually worse than that. Somebody at the U.N. clearly is willing to hand this arsonist a few matches. And somebody seems eager to see the results.</p>
<p>Israel has known for years that it should expect nothing but insults from the U.N. General Assembly. Still, it is imperative to remind fair-minded people in the U.S. and elsewhere of this ongoing outrage.</p>
<p><em>editorial@observer.com</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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			<media:title type="html">The Editors</media:title>
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		<title>Mr. Obama and Israel</title>

		<comments>http://observer.com/2012/03/mr-obama-and-israel/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 07 Mar 2012 11:21:13 -0400</pubDate>
					<link>http://observer.com/2012/03/mr-obama-and-israel/</link>
			<dc:creator></dc:creator>
				
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.observer.com/?p=226552</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Not for the first time, Barack Obama said all the right things at the AIPAC dinner over the weekend. All of the expected words and sentiments were out in force—tributes to the enduring friendship between the two nations, reassurances of shared goals and acknowledgments of common strategic interests.<!--more--></p>
<p>That’s all good. But at this critical juncture in the U.S.-Israeli relationship, words are less important than actions. The president needs to show his support for Israel in tangible ways, both in public and behind the scenes. There can be no equivocation, no cool detachment, no mixed signals. Israel’s enemies and, indeed, the rest of the world need to understand that the United States and Israel stand together in the battle against global terrorism.</p>
<p>Nothing would please the world’s terrorists and terrorist sponsors more than the prospect of a bitter split between the U.S. and Israel. Since 2009, many have observed, the Obama White House has been tougher on Jerusalem than it has been on Teheran. That perception, whether justified or not, has to stop, now. Nobody should have any reason to doubt America’s support for Israel, and for the decisions that Israel will have to make about its own national security.</p>
<p>Washington must remind the world that Iran’s religious and secular leaders, including its grand ayatollah, have pledged themselves—in public—to Israel’s destruction. This sort of rhetoric would be condemned and sanctioned if it emanated from a European or Asian capital. But Iran’s leaders regularly and consistently make it clear that if they had the means, they would wipe Israel off the face of the earth.</p>
<p>Nobody can doubt that Iran’s leaders are intent on building a nuclear weapon, and if they succeed, who can doubt that the ayatollahs will use the weapon to target Israel? That’s why the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran is, as Mr. Obama stated, intolerable.</p>
<p>So the questions become: What to do, and when to do it?</p>
<p>Like any other nation, Israel will act as it sees fit to defend its national security and its civilian population. Mr. Obama, with some justification, told the AIPAC gathering that loose talk about an attack on Iran could be counterproductive. He might be right: Over the weekend, followers of Iran’s grand ayatollah—a man who makes the country’s president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, seem reasonable—scored a big victory in the nation’s parliamentary elections. Tensions with the Israel, the U.S. and the West certainly played into the ayatollah’s hands.</p>
<p>An Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities is not, in fact, inevitable, although Mr. Netanyahu rightly noted in his own speech to AIPAC that Israel will not stand idly by if Teheran persists in building a weapon of mass destruction. Israel remains skeptical about the power of diplomatic and economic sanctions, with good reasons—sanctions are a rational response to a crisis, but Iran’s leaders clearly are not rational. Nevertheless, time has not yet run out on diplomacy. But the diplomatic and economic pressure on Iran must be effective, indeed, it must be crushing, and it is up to the Obama White House to take the lead.</p>
<p>That course of action will require more than platitudes from Washington. It will require determination and passionate belief. It remains to be seen if Mr. Obama can summon those qualities on behalf of Israel—and, by extension, on behalf of American security as well.</p>
]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Not for the first time, Barack Obama said all the right things at the AIPAC dinner over the weekend. All of the expected words and sentiments were out in force—tributes to the enduring friendship between the two nations, reassurances of shared goals and acknowledgments of common strategic interests.<!--more--></p>
<p>That’s all good. But at this critical juncture in the U.S.-Israeli relationship, words are less important than actions. The president needs to show his support for Israel in tangible ways, both in public and behind the scenes. There can be no equivocation, no cool detachment, no mixed signals. Israel’s enemies and, indeed, the rest of the world need to understand that the United States and Israel stand together in the battle against global terrorism.</p>
<p>Nothing would please the world’s terrorists and terrorist sponsors more than the prospect of a bitter split between the U.S. and Israel. Since 2009, many have observed, the Obama White House has been tougher on Jerusalem than it has been on Teheran. That perception, whether justified or not, has to stop, now. Nobody should have any reason to doubt America’s support for Israel, and for the decisions that Israel will have to make about its own national security.</p>
<p>Washington must remind the world that Iran’s religious and secular leaders, including its grand ayatollah, have pledged themselves—in public—to Israel’s destruction. This sort of rhetoric would be condemned and sanctioned if it emanated from a European or Asian capital. But Iran’s leaders regularly and consistently make it clear that if they had the means, they would wipe Israel off the face of the earth.</p>
<p>Nobody can doubt that Iran’s leaders are intent on building a nuclear weapon, and if they succeed, who can doubt that the ayatollahs will use the weapon to target Israel? That’s why the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran is, as Mr. Obama stated, intolerable.</p>
<p>So the questions become: What to do, and when to do it?</p>
<p>Like any other nation, Israel will act as it sees fit to defend its national security and its civilian population. Mr. Obama, with some justification, told the AIPAC gathering that loose talk about an attack on Iran could be counterproductive. He might be right: Over the weekend, followers of Iran’s grand ayatollah—a man who makes the country’s president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, seem reasonable—scored a big victory in the nation’s parliamentary elections. Tensions with the Israel, the U.S. and the West certainly played into the ayatollah’s hands.</p>
<p>An Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities is not, in fact, inevitable, although Mr. Netanyahu rightly noted in his own speech to AIPAC that Israel will not stand idly by if Teheran persists in building a weapon of mass destruction. Israel remains skeptical about the power of diplomatic and economic sanctions, with good reasons—sanctions are a rational response to a crisis, but Iran’s leaders clearly are not rational. Nevertheless, time has not yet run out on diplomacy. But the diplomatic and economic pressure on Iran must be effective, indeed, it must be crushing, and it is up to the Obama White House to take the lead.</p>
<p>That course of action will require more than platitudes from Washington. It will require determination and passionate belief. It remains to be seen if Mr. Obama can summon those qualities on behalf of Israel—and, by extension, on behalf of American security as well.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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			<media:title type="html">jhanasobserver</media:title>
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		<title>Ambassa-dirty: The Sexiest United Nations General Assembly Attendees [Slideshow]</title>

		<comments>http://observer.com/2011/09/ambassa-dirty-the-sexiest-united-nations-general-assembly-attendees-slideshow/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 23 Sep 2011 13:36:51 -0400</pubDate>
					<link>http://observer.com/2011/09/ambassa-dirty-the-sexiest-united-nations-general-assembly-attendees-slideshow/</link>
			<dc:creator>Drew Grant</dc:creator>
				
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.observer.com/?p=186230</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p><div id="attachment_186268" class="wp-caption alignleft" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://nyoobserver.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/126096706.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-186268" title="A Swedish delegate (top) and Slovak dele" src="http://nyoobserver.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/126096706.jpg?w=300&h=222" alt="" width="300" height="222" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">The Swedish always bring the best delegates to the party</p></div></p>
<p>You can thank all that traffic in Midtown this week to the 66th session of the United Nations General Assembly, which brought in not only the world's most important leaders, but all their bodyguards and beefed up security as well. Don't even try going east of 3rd Ave today, is all we're saying.</p>
<p><!--more-->But as President Barack Obama hangs out with Israeli Prime Minister <strong>Benjamin Netanyahu </strong>and Iran's ultimate bad boy, President <strong>Mahmoud Ahmadinejad,</strong> we know the real question on your mind: "Where are all the hotties?"</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><div id="attachment_186268" class="wp-caption alignleft" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://nyoobserver.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/126096706.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-186268" title="A Swedish delegate (top) and Slovak dele" src="http://nyoobserver.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/126096706.jpg?w=300&h=222" alt="" width="300" height="222" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">The Swedish always bring the best delegates to the party</p></div></p>
<p>You can thank all that traffic in Midtown this week to the 66th session of the United Nations General Assembly, which brought in not only the world's most important leaders, but all their bodyguards and beefed up security as well. Don't even try going east of 3rd Ave today, is all we're saying.</p>
<p><!--more-->But as President Barack Obama hangs out with Israeli Prime Minister <strong>Benjamin Netanyahu </strong>and Iran's ultimate bad boy, President <strong>Mahmoud Ahmadinejad,</strong> we know the real question on your mind: "Where are all the hotties?"</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
	
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		<media:content url="http://nyoobserver.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/126096706.jpg?w=150" medium="image">
			<media:title type="html">A Swedish delegate (top) and Slovak dele</media:title>
		</media:content>

		<media:content url="http://2.gravatar.com/avatar/becf95fa833b8aeb13f7720732bd6dc6?s=96&#38;d=identicon&#38;r=G" medium="image">
			<media:title type="html">jhanasobserver</media:title>
		</media:content>

		<media:content url="http://nyoobserver.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/126096706.jpg?w=300&#38;h=222" medium="image">
			<media:title type="html">A Swedish delegate (top) and Slovak dele</media:title>
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		<title>Theory of Achievement</title>

		<comments>http://observer.com/2011/09/theory-of-achievement/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 20 Sep 2011 23:39:50 -0400</pubDate>
					<link>http://observer.com/2011/09/theory-of-achievement/</link>
			<dc:creator></dc:creator>
				
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.observer.com/?p=185551</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p><div id="attachment_185557" class="wp-caption alignleft" style="width: 216px"><a href="http://nyoobserver.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/124756115.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-185557" title="GOP Presidential Candidates Participate In Debate In Tampa" src="http://nyoobserver.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/124756115.jpg?w=206&h=300" alt="Perry." width="206" height="300" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">http://www.observer.com/2011/09/theory-of-achievement/</p></div></p>
<p>So <strong>Rick Perry</strong>, <strong>President Barack Obama</strong> and <strong>Mahmoud Ahmadinejad</strong> walk into a bar…  It’s not a joke; it’s a scenario we imagined as a real possibility as all three were descending upon Manhattan this week.  (As long as they stay away from Miss Lily’s. <a href="http://www.observer.com/2011/09/miss-lily%E2%80%99s-chic-appeal/">It’s already crowded enough</a>.)</p>
<p>We like to call this scenario “fantasy bar fight.”<!--more--> It’s probably fair to say that many New Yorkers aren’t too happy with any of them to varying degrees, and not just because the resulting security chaos means it takes four weeks to get across midtown in a taxi instead of the usual three.</p>
<p>We’ve examined the President’s new job plan, and subsequently have been attempting to make lemonade from lemons, but retailing homemade beverages to make money is far more complicated than it was when we were 10.  (The permits alone! And turns out our lemonade stand isn’t OSHA compliant.)  But maybe it’s for the best. If we were too good at the whole money-making thing, we’d just be taxed into oblivion—at least according to <strong>Bill O’Reilly</strong>, who expressed concern this week that any federal tax increases would effectively “tax achievement.” “Let’s take me,” he said, redefining achievement in his own charming way. “If Barack Obama begins taxing me more than 50 percent, which is very possible, I don’t know how much longer I’m going to do this.”</p>
<p>Which actually makes us root for a tax increase a teeny tiny bit. (Is that a promise?)</p>
<p>We’re sure Mr. O’Reilly believes he’s doing god’s work, if a little less literally than <strong>Michele Bachmann</strong> or, depending on which god we’re talking about, Mr. Ahmadinejad.  But it’s a little unclear what constitutes god’s work these days. According to a Baylor University study, one in five Americans believe God controls the economy, which is not exactly the sort of career we had in mind for Him. (“They say the invisible hand of the free market is really God at work,”  sociologist <strong>Paul Froese</strong> and co-author of the Baylor survey told <em>USA Today</em>.) If so, God’s invisible hand has been about as steady as <strong>Eli Manning</strong>’s earlier this week in the season opener at MetLife Stadium. But the Giants managed to pull off a win, which is more than we can say for God, looking at those unemployment numbers.  Maybe He’s just concerned about those high taxation rates that come with achievement.</p>
<p>In any event, we’re looking forward to the exodus of our early fall visitors.  We all have work to do—underachievement milestones to hit, illegal lemonade stands to run and the like. Or maybe we’ll scrap it all and go to Miss Lily’s.</p>
]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><div id="attachment_185557" class="wp-caption alignleft" style="width: 216px"><a href="http://nyoobserver.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/124756115.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-185557" title="GOP Presidential Candidates Participate In Debate In Tampa" src="http://nyoobserver.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/124756115.jpg?w=206&h=300" alt="Perry." width="206" height="300" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">http://www.observer.com/2011/09/theory-of-achievement/</p></div></p>
<p>So <strong>Rick Perry</strong>, <strong>President Barack Obama</strong> and <strong>Mahmoud Ahmadinejad</strong> walk into a bar…  It’s not a joke; it’s a scenario we imagined as a real possibility as all three were descending upon Manhattan this week.  (As long as they stay away from Miss Lily’s. <a href="http://www.observer.com/2011/09/miss-lily%E2%80%99s-chic-appeal/">It’s already crowded enough</a>.)</p>
<p>We like to call this scenario “fantasy bar fight.”<!--more--> It’s probably fair to say that many New Yorkers aren’t too happy with any of them to varying degrees, and not just because the resulting security chaos means it takes four weeks to get across midtown in a taxi instead of the usual three.</p>
<p>We’ve examined the President’s new job plan, and subsequently have been attempting to make lemonade from lemons, but retailing homemade beverages to make money is far more complicated than it was when we were 10.  (The permits alone! And turns out our lemonade stand isn’t OSHA compliant.)  But maybe it’s for the best. If we were too good at the whole money-making thing, we’d just be taxed into oblivion—at least according to <strong>Bill O’Reilly</strong>, who expressed concern this week that any federal tax increases would effectively “tax achievement.” “Let’s take me,” he said, redefining achievement in his own charming way. “If Barack Obama begins taxing me more than 50 percent, which is very possible, I don’t know how much longer I’m going to do this.”</p>
<p>Which actually makes us root for a tax increase a teeny tiny bit. (Is that a promise?)</p>
<p>We’re sure Mr. O’Reilly believes he’s doing god’s work, if a little less literally than <strong>Michele Bachmann</strong> or, depending on which god we’re talking about, Mr. Ahmadinejad.  But it’s a little unclear what constitutes god’s work these days. According to a Baylor University study, one in five Americans believe God controls the economy, which is not exactly the sort of career we had in mind for Him. (“They say the invisible hand of the free market is really God at work,”  sociologist <strong>Paul Froese</strong> and co-author of the Baylor survey told <em>USA Today</em>.) If so, God’s invisible hand has been about as steady as <strong>Eli Manning</strong>’s earlier this week in the season opener at MetLife Stadium. But the Giants managed to pull off a win, which is more than we can say for God, looking at those unemployment numbers.  Maybe He’s just concerned about those high taxation rates that come with achievement.</p>
<p>In any event, we’re looking forward to the exodus of our early fall visitors.  We all have work to do—underachievement milestones to hit, illegal lemonade stands to run and the like. Or maybe we’ll scrap it all and go to Miss Lily’s.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
	
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			<media:title type="html">GOP Presidential Candidates Participate In Debate In Tampa</media:title>
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		<title>Paterson: &#8216;I&#8217;m Actually Not Talking About It&#8217;</title>

		<comments>http://observer.com/2009/09/paterson-im-actually-not-talking-about-it/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Sep 2009 20:42:53 -0400</pubDate>
					<link>http://observer.com/2009/09/paterson-im-actually-not-talking-about-it/</link>
			<dc:creator>Jimmy Vielkind</dc:creator>
				
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.observer.com/2009/09/paterson-im-actually-not-talking-about-it/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>ALBANY—David Paterson got a loud cheer by beating up on Mahmoud Ahmadinejad at an event in Midtown, then parried reporters&#039; questions about whether ongoing talk of <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/20/nyregion/20paterson.html">White House pressure to get him not to run</a> is problematic.</p>
<p>&quot;I&#039;m actually not talking about it, I just wanted to set the record straight and, uh, that&#039;s it,&quot; Paterson said in a very brief question-and-answer session. He did an extensive radio interview this morning<a href="http://www.politickerny.com/5439/paterson-cuomo-unpopular-too-this-job"> in which he did talk about it.</a></p>
<p>Paterson was asked about his wife, Michelle&#039;s comments that she <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypolitics/2009/09/michelle-paterson-back-and-for.html">wasn&#039;t sure if her husband would run for re-election.</a></p>
<p>&quot;I appreciate my wife&#039;s comments all the time,&quot; Paterson replied. &quot;Most people who read the <em>New York Times</em> article thought what she thought, but the administration never gave me an authorized invitation not to run next year.&quot;</p>
<p>He was asked if he wanted to run for re-election.</p>
<p>&quot;I&#039;m running,&quot; he said.</p>
]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>ALBANY—David Paterson got a loud cheer by beating up on Mahmoud Ahmadinejad at an event in Midtown, then parried reporters&#039; questions about whether ongoing talk of <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/20/nyregion/20paterson.html">White House pressure to get him not to run</a> is problematic.</p>
<p>&quot;I&#039;m actually not talking about it, I just wanted to set the record straight and, uh, that&#039;s it,&quot; Paterson said in a very brief question-and-answer session. He did an extensive radio interview this morning<a href="http://www.politickerny.com/5439/paterson-cuomo-unpopular-too-this-job"> in which he did talk about it.</a></p>
<p>Paterson was asked about his wife, Michelle&#039;s comments that she <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypolitics/2009/09/michelle-paterson-back-and-for.html">wasn&#039;t sure if her husband would run for re-election.</a></p>
<p>&quot;I appreciate my wife&#039;s comments all the time,&quot; Paterson replied. &quot;Most people who read the <em>New York Times</em> article thought what she thought, but the administration never gave me an authorized invitation not to run next year.&quot;</p>
<p>He was asked if he wanted to run for re-election.</p>
<p>&quot;I&#039;m running,&quot; he said.</p>
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		<title>The Last Thing the Iranian Reformers Need</title>

		<comments>http://observer.com/2009/06/the-last-thing-the-iranian-reformers-need-2/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 23 Jun 2009 01:59:01 -0400</pubDate>
					<link>http://observer.com/2009/06/the-last-thing-the-iranian-reformers-need-2/</link>
			<dc:creator>Steve Kornacki</dc:creator>
				
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.observer.com/2009/06/the-last-thing-the-iranian-reformers-need-2/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p><img class="alignleft" src="http://nyoobserver.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/kornacki-iran_-062309.jpg?w=300&h=199" />
<p class="MsoNormal">It’s not a stretch for Americans to look at the scenes of mass protest in Iran and think back to 1989, when popular uprisings toppled one Soviet-backed regime after another in Eastern Europe.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">That mental association is one that Barack Obama’s critics have seized upon, arguing that the same presidential bully pulpit that hastened the liberation of those nations from Moscow 20 years ago should now be used to spur on the women, men and <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KPe4JFndLf8">children</a> bravely facing the Basiji militia in the streets of Tehran.<span>  </span><span> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Mike Pence, the third-ranking Republican in the House, <a href="http://www.gop.gov/wtas/09/06/18/pence-on-iran-reagan-didn">succinctly expressed</a> this view on Monday: “When Ronald Reagan went to the Brandenburg Gate, he did not say, ‘Mr. Gorbachev, that wall is none of our business.’”</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">It all sounds good enough—until you realize that the analogy that Obama’s critics are relying on is utterly false.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The people of Warsaw, Berlin, Prague and the like rose up against a system of government that had been imposed on them decades earlier by a foreign power. They had never accepted the legitimacy of Soviet rule and, often against violent repression, had worked to liberate themselves from it. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The Islamic government of Iran, by contrast, was created by the Iranian people themselves, who in 1978 and 1979 revolted against the repressive, American-backed Shah. An estimated six million Iranians joyously greeted Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini when, days after protesters forced the Shah to flee abroad, he disembarked from an Air France jet in January ’79 and ended his 14-year exile. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Khomeini then set about designing the framework for the modern Islamic Republic—with religious leaders, not elected civilians, holding the ultimate power—and his vision was quickly ratified through a nearly unanimous national referendum. This is a far cry from how Soviet communism came to the Warsaw Pact nations: In Iran, the people imposed Islamic rule on themselves, and still (by and large) consider the revolution their finest national hour.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">This distinction is vital. Whereas the crowds in Eastern Europe were united in their desire to destroy their system of government—a goal shared by the United States—the Iranians who have taken to the streets (again, by and large) view themselves as protectors of the revolution and the system it created. As Fatima Hoghighatjoo, a reformist and former member of Parliament, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/22/world/middleeast/22security.html?ref=world">explained</a> to <em>The New York Times</em>: “The people inside Iran are not saying they want regime change. They are saying, ‘Where is my vote?’”</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Americans might like to believe that, just like in ’89, the protests represent an overpowering thirst for freedom and democracy as Westerners define it. But this is not the same simple battle between Western democracy and repression. The masses in Eastern Europe may have been elated to know that the U.S. considered their cause its own, but the reaction of Iranians to a similar declaration now would be far different.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Moreover, America has (to put it mildly) an image problem in Iran that it didn’t have in Eastern Europe. Iranian history is marked by unwanted Western intrusion—the British plundering of oil fields, the C.I.A. overthrow of Mohammed Mosaddeq in 1953, the “capitulation” of 1964 and so on. Those who demand that Mr. Obama forcefully insert himself into the current drama don’t seem to appreciate that words of support from an American president can be used to rile up popular sentiment against protesters—something that was hardly the case in ’89.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The best outcome in Iran for the United States would be the annulment of this month’s election, the scheduling of a new vote, and the election of Mir-Hossein Moussavi. This wouldn’t be a panacea for American-Iranian relations, but it would be a clear step forward. And, despite the government’s post-election crackdown, it’s still possible.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The key is for Mr. Moussavi’s movement to remain free of the taint of Western influence—a poison pill that would send the clerical elites who have tentatively sided with the opposition flocking back to the government fold. The support of clerics with impeccable revolutionary credentials is critical to Mr. Moussavi’s prospects for success; it reinforces his claim that he is not trying to dismantle Iran’s system of government. Without them, a far more violent—and successful—government crackdown seems inevitable.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Mr. Obama clearly understands the stakes. Right now, the conflict in Iran is still an internal battle between two factions loyal to the revolution. But the minute it becomes a battle between Washington and Tehran, Mr. Moussavi loses. As Mr. Obama pointed out on the campaign trail last year, words do matter. And in keeping them to a minimum, he’s doing more than any of the tough-talkers to help those crowds in Tehran. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p>
]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img class="alignleft" src="http://nyoobserver.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/kornacki-iran_-062309.jpg?w=300&h=199" />
<p class="MsoNormal">It’s not a stretch for Americans to look at the scenes of mass protest in Iran and think back to 1989, when popular uprisings toppled one Soviet-backed regime after another in Eastern Europe.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">That mental association is one that Barack Obama’s critics have seized upon, arguing that the same presidential bully pulpit that hastened the liberation of those nations from Moscow 20 years ago should now be used to spur on the women, men and <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KPe4JFndLf8">children</a> bravely facing the Basiji militia in the streets of Tehran.<span>  </span><span> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Mike Pence, the third-ranking Republican in the House, <a href="http://www.gop.gov/wtas/09/06/18/pence-on-iran-reagan-didn">succinctly expressed</a> this view on Monday: “When Ronald Reagan went to the Brandenburg Gate, he did not say, ‘Mr. Gorbachev, that wall is none of our business.’”</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">It all sounds good enough—until you realize that the analogy that Obama’s critics are relying on is utterly false.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The people of Warsaw, Berlin, Prague and the like rose up against a system of government that had been imposed on them decades earlier by a foreign power. They had never accepted the legitimacy of Soviet rule and, often against violent repression, had worked to liberate themselves from it. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The Islamic government of Iran, by contrast, was created by the Iranian people themselves, who in 1978 and 1979 revolted against the repressive, American-backed Shah. An estimated six million Iranians joyously greeted Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini when, days after protesters forced the Shah to flee abroad, he disembarked from an Air France jet in January ’79 and ended his 14-year exile. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Khomeini then set about designing the framework for the modern Islamic Republic—with religious leaders, not elected civilians, holding the ultimate power—and his vision was quickly ratified through a nearly unanimous national referendum. This is a far cry from how Soviet communism came to the Warsaw Pact nations: In Iran, the people imposed Islamic rule on themselves, and still (by and large) consider the revolution their finest national hour.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">This distinction is vital. Whereas the crowds in Eastern Europe were united in their desire to destroy their system of government—a goal shared by the United States—the Iranians who have taken to the streets (again, by and large) view themselves as protectors of the revolution and the system it created. As Fatima Hoghighatjoo, a reformist and former member of Parliament, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/22/world/middleeast/22security.html?ref=world">explained</a> to <em>The New York Times</em>: “The people inside Iran are not saying they want regime change. They are saying, ‘Where is my vote?’”</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Americans might like to believe that, just like in ’89, the protests represent an overpowering thirst for freedom and democracy as Westerners define it. But this is not the same simple battle between Western democracy and repression. The masses in Eastern Europe may have been elated to know that the U.S. considered their cause its own, but the reaction of Iranians to a similar declaration now would be far different.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Moreover, America has (to put it mildly) an image problem in Iran that it didn’t have in Eastern Europe. Iranian history is marked by unwanted Western intrusion—the British plundering of oil fields, the C.I.A. overthrow of Mohammed Mosaddeq in 1953, the “capitulation” of 1964 and so on. Those who demand that Mr. Obama forcefully insert himself into the current drama don’t seem to appreciate that words of support from an American president can be used to rile up popular sentiment against protesters—something that was hardly the case in ’89.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The best outcome in Iran for the United States would be the annulment of this month’s election, the scheduling of a new vote, and the election of Mir-Hossein Moussavi. This wouldn’t be a panacea for American-Iranian relations, but it would be a clear step forward. And, despite the government’s post-election crackdown, it’s still possible.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The key is for Mr. Moussavi’s movement to remain free of the taint of Western influence—a poison pill that would send the clerical elites who have tentatively sided with the opposition flocking back to the government fold. The support of clerics with impeccable revolutionary credentials is critical to Mr. Moussavi’s prospects for success; it reinforces his claim that he is not trying to dismantle Iran’s system of government. Without them, a far more violent—and successful—government crackdown seems inevitable.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Mr. Obama clearly understands the stakes. Right now, the conflict in Iran is still an internal battle between two factions loyal to the revolution. But the minute it becomes a battle between Washington and Tehran, Mr. Moussavi loses. As Mr. Obama pointed out on the campaign trail last year, words do matter. And in keeping them to a minimum, he’s doing more than any of the tough-talkers to help those crowds in Tehran. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>As Tehran Roils, Obama Refuses to Pander</title>

		<comments>http://observer.com/2009/06/as-tehran-roils-obama-refuses-to-pander-2/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Jun 2009 00:31:52 -0400</pubDate>
					<link>http://observer.com/2009/06/as-tehran-roils-obama-refuses-to-pander-2/</link>
			<dc:creator>Steve Kornacki</dc:creator>
				
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.observer.com/2009/06/as-tehran-roils-obama-refuses-to-pander-2/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p class="MsoNormal">Rudy Giuliani used to like <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/08/30/giuliani.transcript/index.html">to tell</a> the story about how, at the height of the panic and chaos of 9/11, he supposedly turned to Bernie Kerik, then his police commissioner, and exclaimed: “Thank God George Bush is our president!”</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">This was back when memories of the disputed 2000 election were still fresh, so the sentiment that Giuliani, who typically mentioned the anecdote to Republican crowds, was really conveying was more like: “Thank God Al Gore isn’t our president! God help us if a Democrat had tried to lead America on 9/11.”</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">It was, of course, a thoroughly self-serving story—an expedient way for Giuliani to forge a connection with the Democrat-hating conservative Republicans he’d need to win over for a 2008 presidential bid. But, at a certain level, he was onto something: It can sometimes take a crisis to illuminate the real nature of the choice voters faced in the previous election.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">That is certainly the case right now. Few Americans went to the polls last November with Iran on their minds at all, and yet it was one of the campaign issues on which the differences between Barack Obama and John McCain were the most clear. Now, as the Iranian government attempts to bloody its own people into submission while American politicians argue over the proper response, the wisdom (perhaps inadvertent) of the voters’ decision to entrust foreign policy to Obama has become clear.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Since hundreds of thousands of Iranians took to the streets in protest of a stolen election last week, McCain has loudly and persistently called on Obama not to mince words in denouncing Iran’s rulers and to take every conceivable step short of an actual military campaign to buttress the protesters. Obama has resisted, at least as much as domestic politics will allow, making clear his concerns about the legitimacy of the election and the violence of the government while keeping the rhetorical heat and volume to a minimum.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">This dispute actually reveals something fundamental about the two men and their understanding of history.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Appearing on <em>Face the Nation<em> on Sunday, McCain <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/FTN_062109.pdf?tag=cbsnewsTwoColUpperPromoArea">referred to himself</a> as a student of history and invoked both the fall of the Berlin Wall and the triumph of the Solidarity movement as proof that the United States can play a critical role in supporting democratic uprisings around the world. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">“When the workers of Gdansk in Poland were fighting for their freedom, [some American leaders said] ‘We shouldn&#039;t interfere.’ We did give them moral support. After the Berlin Wall came down, guess what? They said, ‘You were the beacon of hope,’” McCain said.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">There is much emotional appeal in McCain’s view. Over and over on Sunday, he called America “a beacon of freedom and hope,” which is certainly how we like to see ourselves. So when we see images of the thuggish men of the Basij militia mercilessly beating (and shooting) peaceful dissenters in Tehran, of course we should speak out and tell the world whose side we’re on. We’re Americans! That’s what we do! </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Unfortunately, McCain’s reading of history is incomplete. Not once on Sunday did he mention the fact that the United States, “beacon of freedom and hope,” engineered the 1953 coup that toppled Iran’s democratically elected government and then spent the next quarter-century propping up the despotic Shah—whose autocratic rule gave rise to the revolutionary forces that rose up in 1979 and turned Iran into the Islamic theocracy that it now is.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">This aspect of history, generally ignored in the United States but understood intimately by every Iranian, undermines the lure of McCain’s argument. To Iranians and to the Muslim world in general, the 1953 coup is not some long-forgotten affair. It inspired the revolutionaries in 1979—“You have nothing to complain about. The United States took our whole country hostage in 1953,” an American hostage in Tehran <a href="http://www.worldaffairsboard.com/iranian-question/47978-understanding-irans-past.html">was once told</a> by his captor—and Mohammed Mosaddegh, the charismatic prime minister overthrown in ’53, remains as revered by Iranians as, say, John F. Kennedy is by Americans.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">But McCain’s concept of U.S.-Iranian history seems to start in ’79, with the revolution and the ensuing American hostage ordeal. This allows for a simple, if highly misleading, narrative: Backward, tyrannical cabal violently seizes power and spends the next three decades oppressing its people and threatening the world—until the U.S. rides to the rescue to liberate the masses. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">By contrast, the significance of ’53 within Iran is central to Obama’s reading of the situation. Just a few weeks ago, he <a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/Remarks-by-the-President-at-Cairo-University-6-04-09/">acknowledged</a> America’s role in deposing Mosaddegh in his Cairo speech, and since last weekend’s election, he’s been guided by the knowledge that—no matter how well-meaning—the words of an American president can be easily manipulated by Iran’s ruling elite. The emotions connected to ’53 and to the Shah’s long reign are still strong, and American lectures about freedom and democracy invite the obvious question from Iranians: Then why did you take ours away?</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">McCain’s reverence for the ideals that America purports to stand for is obviously genuine—and admirable, too, considering the sacrifices he was willing to make as a young man. But his devotion to this idealized vision of America blinds him to the very real instances in which we’ve violated the values and principles we claim to hold dearest. Iranians have seen this other side of America firsthand—and Obama knows it. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Thank God, as events plan out in Tehran, Barack Obama is our president. </p>
]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p class="MsoNormal">Rudy Giuliani used to like <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/08/30/giuliani.transcript/index.html">to tell</a> the story about how, at the height of the panic and chaos of 9/11, he supposedly turned to Bernie Kerik, then his police commissioner, and exclaimed: “Thank God George Bush is our president!”</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">This was back when memories of the disputed 2000 election were still fresh, so the sentiment that Giuliani, who typically mentioned the anecdote to Republican crowds, was really conveying was more like: “Thank God Al Gore isn’t our president! God help us if a Democrat had tried to lead America on 9/11.”</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">It was, of course, a thoroughly self-serving story—an expedient way for Giuliani to forge a connection with the Democrat-hating conservative Republicans he’d need to win over for a 2008 presidential bid. But, at a certain level, he was onto something: It can sometimes take a crisis to illuminate the real nature of the choice voters faced in the previous election.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">That is certainly the case right now. Few Americans went to the polls last November with Iran on their minds at all, and yet it was one of the campaign issues on which the differences between Barack Obama and John McCain were the most clear. Now, as the Iranian government attempts to bloody its own people into submission while American politicians argue over the proper response, the wisdom (perhaps inadvertent) of the voters’ decision to entrust foreign policy to Obama has become clear.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Since hundreds of thousands of Iranians took to the streets in protest of a stolen election last week, McCain has loudly and persistently called on Obama not to mince words in denouncing Iran’s rulers and to take every conceivable step short of an actual military campaign to buttress the protesters. Obama has resisted, at least as much as domestic politics will allow, making clear his concerns about the legitimacy of the election and the violence of the government while keeping the rhetorical heat and volume to a minimum.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">This dispute actually reveals something fundamental about the two men and their understanding of history.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Appearing on <em>Face the Nation<em> on Sunday, McCain <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/FTN_062109.pdf?tag=cbsnewsTwoColUpperPromoArea">referred to himself</a> as a student of history and invoked both the fall of the Berlin Wall and the triumph of the Solidarity movement as proof that the United States can play a critical role in supporting democratic uprisings around the world. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">“When the workers of Gdansk in Poland were fighting for their freedom, [some American leaders said] ‘We shouldn&#039;t interfere.’ We did give them moral support. After the Berlin Wall came down, guess what? They said, ‘You were the beacon of hope,’” McCain said.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">There is much emotional appeal in McCain’s view. Over and over on Sunday, he called America “a beacon of freedom and hope,” which is certainly how we like to see ourselves. So when we see images of the thuggish men of the Basij militia mercilessly beating (and shooting) peaceful dissenters in Tehran, of course we should speak out and tell the world whose side we’re on. We’re Americans! That’s what we do! </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Unfortunately, McCain’s reading of history is incomplete. Not once on Sunday did he mention the fact that the United States, “beacon of freedom and hope,” engineered the 1953 coup that toppled Iran’s democratically elected government and then spent the next quarter-century propping up the despotic Shah—whose autocratic rule gave rise to the revolutionary forces that rose up in 1979 and turned Iran into the Islamic theocracy that it now is.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">This aspect of history, generally ignored in the United States but understood intimately by every Iranian, undermines the lure of McCain’s argument. To Iranians and to the Muslim world in general, the 1953 coup is not some long-forgotten affair. It inspired the revolutionaries in 1979—“You have nothing to complain about. The United States took our whole country hostage in 1953,” an American hostage in Tehran <a href="http://www.worldaffairsboard.com/iranian-question/47978-understanding-irans-past.html">was once told</a> by his captor—and Mohammed Mosaddegh, the charismatic prime minister overthrown in ’53, remains as revered by Iranians as, say, John F. Kennedy is by Americans.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">But McCain’s concept of U.S.-Iranian history seems to start in ’79, with the revolution and the ensuing American hostage ordeal. This allows for a simple, if highly misleading, narrative: Backward, tyrannical cabal violently seizes power and spends the next three decades oppressing its people and threatening the world—until the U.S. rides to the rescue to liberate the masses. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">By contrast, the significance of ’53 within Iran is central to Obama’s reading of the situation. Just a few weeks ago, he <a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/Remarks-by-the-President-at-Cairo-University-6-04-09/">acknowledged</a> America’s role in deposing Mosaddegh in his Cairo speech, and since last weekend’s election, he’s been guided by the knowledge that—no matter how well-meaning—the words of an American president can be easily manipulated by Iran’s ruling elite. The emotions connected to ’53 and to the Shah’s long reign are still strong, and American lectures about freedom and democracy invite the obvious question from Iranians: Then why did you take ours away?</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">McCain’s reverence for the ideals that America purports to stand for is obviously genuine—and admirable, too, considering the sacrifices he was willing to make as a young man. But his devotion to this idealized vision of America blinds him to the very real instances in which we’ve violated the values and principles we claim to hold dearest. Iranians have seen this other side of America firsthand—and Obama knows it. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Thank God, as events plan out in Tehran, Barack Obama is our president. </p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>How to Invent Facts About the Iranian Election</title>

		<comments>http://observer.com/2009/06/how-to-invent-facts-about-the-iranian-election-2/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Jun 2009 01:02:55 -0400</pubDate>
					<link>http://observer.com/2009/06/how-to-invent-facts-about-the-iranian-election-2/</link>
			<dc:creator>Steve Kornacki</dc:creator>
				
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.observer.com/2009/06/how-to-invent-facts-about-the-iranian-election-2/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p class="MsoNormal">Even when the evidence for something is overwhelmingly compelling, a small but noisy chunk of society will still resist it. The debate over evolution is an example of this. So is the present discussion of the Iranian election results.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The clear consensus in the West is that the fix was in—that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s supposed re-election landslide is a sham sloppily cooked up by the Islamic Republic’s conservative, change-resistant clerical elites. This isn’t simply because most analysts and observers wanted Ahmadinejad to lose and can’t bring themselves to believe that he might not have; it’s because there is <a href="http://www.juancole.com/2009/06/stealing-iranian-election.html">ample evidence</a> of serious, wide-scale chicanery.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">But, just like Darwin’s dogged deniers have constructed their own fantasy world of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligent_design">alternative “science,”</a><span>  </span>a band of vocal skeptics is now pushing a peculiar brand of political science to challenge the conventional wisdom about Iran.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">“Ahmadinejad won. Get over it,” was the headline to a <a href="http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0609/23745.html">Tuesday column</a> by Flynn and Hillary Mann Leverett. But their claims, which have since been aired extensively, can mostly be dismissed with ease. Here are some of the key components of their argument, along with a logical rebuttal:</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">* <em>Those who dismiss the election results mistakenly “ignore the fact that Ahmadinejad’s 62.6 percent of the vote in this year’s election is essentially the same as the 61.69 percent he received in the final count of the 2005 presidential election.”</em></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u>Response</u>: Sure, but that 61.69% he got in 2005 was in the run-off, not the preliminary election. And it came amid a voting boycott by millions of reformists, who concluded that participation would be pointless. As a result, only 29 million votes were cast in ’05. This year, the reformists participated in droves, helping to drive up turnout to around 40 million. In such an environment, it’s basically unfathomable that Ahmadinejad would somehow <em>improve</em> on his artificially inflated ’05 run-off total—in the preliminary round, no less.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">* <em>“Although Iran’s elections are not free by Western standards, the Islamic Republic has a 30-year history of highly contested and competitive elections at the presidential, parliamentary and local levels.”</em></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u>Response</u>: Exactly! That’s why hundreds of thousands of Mousavi supporters have taken to the streets and risked their lives to protest the official result—they actually expected, based on the past 30 years, that the vote-counting would be fair. No previous election in Iran has produced an uproar like this; even when they haven’t been pleased by the outcome, Iranians have accepted the integrity of the past presidential votes. It is because they recognize what fair elections are like that so many Iranians are objecting to this one. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">* <em>“..the one poll conducted before Friday’s election by a Western organization that was transparent about its methodology—a telephone poll carried out by the Washington-based Terror-Free Tomorrow from May 11 to 20 — found Ahmadinejad running 20 points ahead of Mousavi. This poll was conducted before the televised debates in which, as noted above, Ahmadinejad was perceived to have done well while Mousavi did poorly.”</em> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u>Response</u>: Enough with the TFT poll already. All it showed was that, at a relatively early point in the campaign (long before hundreds of thousands of green-clad Iranians began turning up at Mousavi rallies), Ahmadinejad, the incumbent president, enjoyed a 34-14 percent advantage over his closest foe. The Leveretts suggest that this showed Ahmadinejad was roughly on course for the 63-34 percent win he was credited with. But that’s ridiculous. You don’t need to know much about Iran to appreciate why: an election that features an incumbent ultimately serves as referendum on that incumbent. After four years on the job, every Iranian knew all about Ahmadinejad and had an opinion on his stewardship. Their views of Mousavi (and the other two candidates in the race) were much less developed. So, of course Ahmadinejad had the early lead. But the key is that he was <em>well</em> under 50 percent. This is an awful place for an incumbent to be, leaving very little room for growth. Meanwhile, there was a ton of space for Mousavi to take off, once voters tuned in, learned about him and realized that he was the main alternative to Ahmadinejad.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">* <em>The ‘Iran experts’ further argue that the high turnout on June 12 — 82 percent of the electorate — had to favor Mousavi. But this line of analysis reflects nothing more than assumptions.”</em></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u>Response:</u> Actually, it reflects history. As the New York Times pointed out on Wednesday, there has been a clear relationship between high voter turnout and close preliminary elections in Iran over the last 30 years. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">* “<em>With regard to electoral irregularities, the specific criticisms made by Mousavi — such as running out of ballot paper in some precincts and not keeping polls open long enough (even though polls stayed open for at least three hours after the announced closing time) — could not, in themselves, have tipped the outcome so clearly in Ahmadinejad’s favor.”</em></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u>Response: </u><span> </span>True, poll hours and ballot shortages wouldn’t move the overall numbers dramatically. But critics <a href="http://www.juancole.com/2009/06/stealing-iranian-election.html">are claiming</a> wholesale fraud; that is, that the numbers reported by Iran’s Interior Ministry were largely invented. This would explain why the figures released by the government varied little by province (despite wide cultural, demographic and ideological differences) and why the government <a href="http://www.juancole.com/2009/06/provincial-election-returns.html">seems to have adjusted the numbers</a> slightly when the absurdity became clear.<span>  </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The Iranian election was a sham. Get over it. </p>
]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p class="MsoNormal">Even when the evidence for something is overwhelmingly compelling, a small but noisy chunk of society will still resist it. The debate over evolution is an example of this. So is the present discussion of the Iranian election results.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The clear consensus in the West is that the fix was in—that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s supposed re-election landslide is a sham sloppily cooked up by the Islamic Republic’s conservative, change-resistant clerical elites. This isn’t simply because most analysts and observers wanted Ahmadinejad to lose and can’t bring themselves to believe that he might not have; it’s because there is <a href="http://www.juancole.com/2009/06/stealing-iranian-election.html">ample evidence</a> of serious, wide-scale chicanery.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">But, just like Darwin’s dogged deniers have constructed their own fantasy world of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligent_design">alternative “science,”</a><span>  </span>a band of vocal skeptics is now pushing a peculiar brand of political science to challenge the conventional wisdom about Iran.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">“Ahmadinejad won. Get over it,” was the headline to a <a href="http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0609/23745.html">Tuesday column</a> by Flynn and Hillary Mann Leverett. But their claims, which have since been aired extensively, can mostly be dismissed with ease. Here are some of the key components of their argument, along with a logical rebuttal:</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">* <em>Those who dismiss the election results mistakenly “ignore the fact that Ahmadinejad’s 62.6 percent of the vote in this year’s election is essentially the same as the 61.69 percent he received in the final count of the 2005 presidential election.”</em></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u>Response</u>: Sure, but that 61.69% he got in 2005 was in the run-off, not the preliminary election. And it came amid a voting boycott by millions of reformists, who concluded that participation would be pointless. As a result, only 29 million votes were cast in ’05. This year, the reformists participated in droves, helping to drive up turnout to around 40 million. In such an environment, it’s basically unfathomable that Ahmadinejad would somehow <em>improve</em> on his artificially inflated ’05 run-off total—in the preliminary round, no less.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">* <em>“Although Iran’s elections are not free by Western standards, the Islamic Republic has a 30-year history of highly contested and competitive elections at the presidential, parliamentary and local levels.”</em></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u>Response</u>: Exactly! That’s why hundreds of thousands of Mousavi supporters have taken to the streets and risked their lives to protest the official result—they actually expected, based on the past 30 years, that the vote-counting would be fair. No previous election in Iran has produced an uproar like this; even when they haven’t been pleased by the outcome, Iranians have accepted the integrity of the past presidential votes. It is because they recognize what fair elections are like that so many Iranians are objecting to this one. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">* <em>“..the one poll conducted before Friday’s election by a Western organization that was transparent about its methodology—a telephone poll carried out by the Washington-based Terror-Free Tomorrow from May 11 to 20 — found Ahmadinejad running 20 points ahead of Mousavi. This poll was conducted before the televised debates in which, as noted above, Ahmadinejad was perceived to have done well while Mousavi did poorly.”</em> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u>Response</u>: Enough with the TFT poll already. All it showed was that, at a relatively early point in the campaign (long before hundreds of thousands of green-clad Iranians began turning up at Mousavi rallies), Ahmadinejad, the incumbent president, enjoyed a 34-14 percent advantage over his closest foe. The Leveretts suggest that this showed Ahmadinejad was roughly on course for the 63-34 percent win he was credited with. But that’s ridiculous. You don’t need to know much about Iran to appreciate why: an election that features an incumbent ultimately serves as referendum on that incumbent. After four years on the job, every Iranian knew all about Ahmadinejad and had an opinion on his stewardship. Their views of Mousavi (and the other two candidates in the race) were much less developed. So, of course Ahmadinejad had the early lead. But the key is that he was <em>well</em> under 50 percent. This is an awful place for an incumbent to be, leaving very little room for growth. Meanwhile, there was a ton of space for Mousavi to take off, once voters tuned in, learned about him and realized that he was the main alternative to Ahmadinejad.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">* <em>The ‘Iran experts’ further argue that the high turnout on June 12 — 82 percent of the electorate — had to favor Mousavi. But this line of analysis reflects nothing more than assumptions.”</em></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u>Response:</u> Actually, it reflects history. As the New York Times pointed out on Wednesday, there has been a clear relationship between high voter turnout and close preliminary elections in Iran over the last 30 years. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">* “<em>With regard to electoral irregularities, the specific criticisms made by Mousavi — such as running out of ballot paper in some precincts and not keeping polls open long enough (even though polls stayed open for at least three hours after the announced closing time) — could not, in themselves, have tipped the outcome so clearly in Ahmadinejad’s favor.”</em></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u>Response: </u><span> </span>True, poll hours and ballot shortages wouldn’t move the overall numbers dramatically. But critics <a href="http://www.juancole.com/2009/06/stealing-iranian-election.html">are claiming</a> wholesale fraud; that is, that the numbers reported by Iran’s Interior Ministry were largely invented. This would explain why the figures released by the government varied little by province (despite wide cultural, demographic and ideological differences) and why the government <a href="http://www.juancole.com/2009/06/provincial-election-returns.html">seems to have adjusted the numbers</a> slightly when the absurdity became clear.<span>  </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The Iranian election was a sham. Get over it. </p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Why the Iranian Election Disaster Is Really Bad for Obama</title>

		<comments>http://observer.com/2009/06/why-the-iranian-election-disaster-is-really-bad-for-obama-2/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 15 Jun 2009 13:41:55 -0400</pubDate>
					<link>http://observer.com/2009/06/why-the-iranian-election-disaster-is-really-bad-for-obama-2/</link>
			<dc:creator>Steve Kornacki</dc:creator>
				
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.observer.com/2009/06/why-the-iranian-election-disaster-is-really-bad-for-obama-2/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p><img class="alignleft" src="http://nyoobserver.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/realiran.jpg?w=204&h=300" />
<p class="MsoNormal">The anti-Iran hawks just got exactly what they wanted. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Not only will they have Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a ranting, Holocaust-denying political villain from central casting, for four more years, they’ll also be able to point to the circumstances of his “reelection”—a <a href="http://www.juancole.com/2009/06/class-v-culture-wars-in-iranian.html">rigged</a> vote count enforced by a violent crackdown—as confirmation of everything they’ve been claiming about the nature of the Iranian regime.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">It’s true, as the more <a href="http://www.observer.com/2007/our-flattering-assault-mahmoud-ahmadinejad">informed voices in the Iran debate have long reminded us</a>, that the Iranian presidency comes with little actual power and that the nuclear issues that divide the United States and Iran wouldn’t have been resolved simply by Ahmadinejad’s defeat. So, in theory, the dispiriting outcome in Iran shouldn’t deter Barack Obama from his goal of sidelining the hawks and pursuing a diplomatic resolution with the country’s real leaders.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">But don’t kid yourself. The ramifications for U.S. policy toward the Islamic Republic will be huge. To the American public, Friday’s vote functioned as a test of all of the propaganda they’ve been fed this decade by neoconservative policy makers and opinion leaders pushing for a military confrontation. A ballot-box uprising that toppled Ahmadinejad, the man hawks love to liken to Hitler, would have sapped every dire warning about the Iranian “threat” of its emotional punch.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">That, in turn, would have given Obama the domestic political space he badly needs to marginalize his critics and pursue a negotiated settlement on the nuclear issue—and, more broadly, to fundamentally alter the atmosphere of mutual suspicion and hostility that has poisoned relations between the countries since the 1979 revolution. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">On <em>Meet the Press</em> on Sunday, Vice President Joe Biden <a href="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31343018/ns/meet_the_press_online_at_msnbc/">insisted</a> that diplomacy is still in the cards and tried to write Ahmadinejad out of the equation. “Look, if there are talks, it&#039;s something that is going to be done with the regime. It&#039;s not being done with a single person,” he said.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Logically, he’s right. Ahmadinejad would be irrelevant to any substantive negotiations between the countries; the task would instead fall to the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and his tight circle of conservative religious confidantes. But such a diplomatic process wouldn’t take place in a vacuum. Domestic politics would play a major role, and this is where Ahmadinejad’s reelection becomes devastating.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">It’s important to keep in mind that, more so than on other foreign policy topics, the anti-Iran hawks in American include many Democrats, who are motivated primarily by the perceived threat of Iran to a key ally, Israel. In pushing for diplomacy, then, Obama isn’t just facing skepticism from discredited Bush administration apologists; he’s courting a potential mutiny within his own party. So far, hawkish Democrats have been willing to bite their tongues, with Obama urging them to take a wait-and-see approach in the run-up to Friday’s vote.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">But now how will Obama keep them in line? </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Hours after Ahmadinejad was declared the winner, Israel was already ramping up its push for a U.S.-led confrontation. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">“In light of Tehran&#039;s policy, and even more so after Ahmadinejad&#039;s re-election, the international community must continue to act uncompromisingly to prevent the nuclearization of Iran,” the country’s foreign minister, Avigdor Lieberman, <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124491107551412599.html">declared</a>. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Israel’s supporters in the U.S. are taking a similar line. “The re-election of Ahmadinejad underscores why the international community must do all it can to deny the Iranian regime the means to carry out its dangerous and destabilizing ambitions,” the American Jewish Committee’s David Harris <a href="http://jta.org/news/article/2009/06/14/1005860/calls-for-pressure-greet-ahmadinejads-victory-claim">announced</a>.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">In the coming weeks and months, expect to hear more insistently than ever, directly from politicians and media commentators and in <a href="http://www.unitedagainstnucleariran.com/">television ads</a>, about the urgency of confronting Iran. You can also expect to hear, particularly from Benjamin Netanyahu and his supporters, about Obama’s <a href="http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1086579.html">supposed assurance</a> to the Israeli government that he’ll look for other solutions if diplomacy with Iran hasn’t panned out by the end of this year. Congressional Democrats who have been patient with Obama will now come under enormous pressure to abandon him on Iran.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Had Mir Hossein Mousavi, who <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2009/06/laura-secor-irans-stolen-election.html">clearly</a> received the most legitimate votes on Friday (by far), been declared the winner, this wouldn’t be the case. Instead, Obama and his defenders would have had a powerful emotional argument of their own: Democracy is alive in Iran! And the people just rose up against the thug Ahmadinejad! We don’t need to bomb them. We need to talk to them. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">This would have been enough to give sympathetic Democrats cover, and to keep skeptical ones in line—and to defeat the “Munich all over again” argument.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">There remains a strong, rational argument for resisting the hawks and <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/15/opinion/15iht-edcohen.html?_r=1&amp;ref=opinion">pursuing diplomacy, even if these latest developments make engagement much more difficult</a>. We’re interpreting what just happened through the lens of nuclear politics, but the Khamenei regime’s election theft is rooted in self-preservation. Iran’s conservative religious leaders saw a massive reformist wave building behind Mousavi and determined to kill it—so emphatically, so violently and so transparently that future reformists would think twice before trying to mobilize the masses. Twenty years ago, the world watched something similar in Tiananmen Square.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The Khamenei regime’s actions this weekend have been despicable in a way words can’t quite describe. And yet, the hawks’ caricature of Iran’s leaders&mdash;“a messianic, apocalyptic cult,” in the <a href="http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3695385,00.html">words of Netanyahu</a>&mdash;still doesn’t fit. If anything, we’ve just seen how committed they are to their own survival. A nuclear strike against Israel, a nation already armed with hundreds of nuclear weapons, doesn’t square with their history—which includes ending a bloody and protracted war with Iraq when it began to threaten Iran’s own stability. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">But cold, rational arguments rarely win political arguments—particularly when one side gets to invoke the specter of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and a mushroom cloud. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">In large part because of Ahmadinejad’s vile rhetoric, the debate over Iran in the U.S. has lopsidedly favored the hawks. That could have changed this weekend. Instead, it will now be more one-sided than ever.<span>  </span></p>
]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img class="alignleft" src="http://nyoobserver.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/realiran.jpg?w=204&h=300" />
<p class="MsoNormal">The anti-Iran hawks just got exactly what they wanted. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Not only will they have Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a ranting, Holocaust-denying political villain from central casting, for four more years, they’ll also be able to point to the circumstances of his “reelection”—a <a href="http://www.juancole.com/2009/06/class-v-culture-wars-in-iranian.html">rigged</a> vote count enforced by a violent crackdown—as confirmation of everything they’ve been claiming about the nature of the Iranian regime.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">It’s true, as the more <a href="http://www.observer.com/2007/our-flattering-assault-mahmoud-ahmadinejad">informed voices in the Iran debate have long reminded us</a>, that the Iranian presidency comes with little actual power and that the nuclear issues that divide the United States and Iran wouldn’t have been resolved simply by Ahmadinejad’s defeat. So, in theory, the dispiriting outcome in Iran shouldn’t deter Barack Obama from his goal of sidelining the hawks and pursuing a diplomatic resolution with the country’s real leaders.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">But don’t kid yourself. The ramifications for U.S. policy toward the Islamic Republic will be huge. To the American public, Friday’s vote functioned as a test of all of the propaganda they’ve been fed this decade by neoconservative policy makers and opinion leaders pushing for a military confrontation. A ballot-box uprising that toppled Ahmadinejad, the man hawks love to liken to Hitler, would have sapped every dire warning about the Iranian “threat” of its emotional punch.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">That, in turn, would have given Obama the domestic political space he badly needs to marginalize his critics and pursue a negotiated settlement on the nuclear issue—and, more broadly, to fundamentally alter the atmosphere of mutual suspicion and hostility that has poisoned relations between the countries since the 1979 revolution. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">On <em>Meet the Press</em> on Sunday, Vice President Joe Biden <a href="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31343018/ns/meet_the_press_online_at_msnbc/">insisted</a> that diplomacy is still in the cards and tried to write Ahmadinejad out of the equation. “Look, if there are talks, it&#039;s something that is going to be done with the regime. It&#039;s not being done with a single person,” he said.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Logically, he’s right. Ahmadinejad would be irrelevant to any substantive negotiations between the countries; the task would instead fall to the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and his tight circle of conservative religious confidantes. But such a diplomatic process wouldn’t take place in a vacuum. Domestic politics would play a major role, and this is where Ahmadinejad’s reelection becomes devastating.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">It’s important to keep in mind that, more so than on other foreign policy topics, the anti-Iran hawks in American include many Democrats, who are motivated primarily by the perceived threat of Iran to a key ally, Israel. In pushing for diplomacy, then, Obama isn’t just facing skepticism from discredited Bush administration apologists; he’s courting a potential mutiny within his own party. So far, hawkish Democrats have been willing to bite their tongues, with Obama urging them to take a wait-and-see approach in the run-up to Friday’s vote.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">But now how will Obama keep them in line? </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Hours after Ahmadinejad was declared the winner, Israel was already ramping up its push for a U.S.-led confrontation. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">“In light of Tehran&#039;s policy, and even more so after Ahmadinejad&#039;s re-election, the international community must continue to act uncompromisingly to prevent the nuclearization of Iran,” the country’s foreign minister, Avigdor Lieberman, <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124491107551412599.html">declared</a>. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Israel’s supporters in the U.S. are taking a similar line. “The re-election of Ahmadinejad underscores why the international community must do all it can to deny the Iranian regime the means to carry out its dangerous and destabilizing ambitions,” the American Jewish Committee’s David Harris <a href="http://jta.org/news/article/2009/06/14/1005860/calls-for-pressure-greet-ahmadinejads-victory-claim">announced</a>.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">In the coming weeks and months, expect to hear more insistently than ever, directly from politicians and media commentators and in <a href="http://www.unitedagainstnucleariran.com/">television ads</a>, about the urgency of confronting Iran. You can also expect to hear, particularly from Benjamin Netanyahu and his supporters, about Obama’s <a href="http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1086579.html">supposed assurance</a> to the Israeli government that he’ll look for other solutions if diplomacy with Iran hasn’t panned out by the end of this year. Congressional Democrats who have been patient with Obama will now come under enormous pressure to abandon him on Iran.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Had Mir Hossein Mousavi, who <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2009/06/laura-secor-irans-stolen-election.html">clearly</a> received the most legitimate votes on Friday (by far), been declared the winner, this wouldn’t be the case. Instead, Obama and his defenders would have had a powerful emotional argument of their own: Democracy is alive in Iran! And the people just rose up against the thug Ahmadinejad! We don’t need to bomb them. We need to talk to them. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">This would have been enough to give sympathetic Democrats cover, and to keep skeptical ones in line—and to defeat the “Munich all over again” argument.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">There remains a strong, rational argument for resisting the hawks and <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/15/opinion/15iht-edcohen.html?_r=1&amp;ref=opinion">pursuing diplomacy, even if these latest developments make engagement much more difficult</a>. We’re interpreting what just happened through the lens of nuclear politics, but the Khamenei regime’s election theft is rooted in self-preservation. Iran’s conservative religious leaders saw a massive reformist wave building behind Mousavi and determined to kill it—so emphatically, so violently and so transparently that future reformists would think twice before trying to mobilize the masses. Twenty years ago, the world watched something similar in Tiananmen Square.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The Khamenei regime’s actions this weekend have been despicable in a way words can’t quite describe. And yet, the hawks’ caricature of Iran’s leaders&mdash;“a messianic, apocalyptic cult,” in the <a href="http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3695385,00.html">words of Netanyahu</a>&mdash;still doesn’t fit. If anything, we’ve just seen how committed they are to their own survival. A nuclear strike against Israel, a nation already armed with hundreds of nuclear weapons, doesn’t square with their history—which includes ending a bloody and protracted war with Iraq when it began to threaten Iran’s own stability. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">But cold, rational arguments rarely win political arguments—particularly when one side gets to invoke the specter of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and a mushroom cloud. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">In large part because of Ahmadinejad’s vile rhetoric, the debate over Iran in the U.S. has lopsidedly favored the hawks. That could have changed this weekend. Instead, it will now be more one-sided than ever.<span>  </span></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Can Iran, and Obama, Break the Cycle of Idiocy?</title>

		<comments>http://observer.com/2009/06/can-iran-and-obama-break-the-cycle-of-idiocy/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Jun 2009 10:00:00 -0400</pubDate>
					<link>http://observer.com/2009/06/can-iran-and-obama-break-the-cycle-of-idiocy/</link>
			<dc:creator>Steve Kornacki</dc:creator>
				
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.observer.com/2009/06/can-iran-and-obama-break-the-cycle-of-idiocy/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p><img class="alignleft" src="http://nyoobserver.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/iranpostbush.jpg?w=300&h=198" />It&rsquo;s often noted that the most hawkish elements in squabbling countries unwittingly enable and support each other. The stand-off between the United States and Iran illustrates this perfectly. Tensions between the countries date back decades, of course, beginning with the U.S.-instigated overthrow of Mohammed Mosaddeq and his democratically elected government in 1953 and escalating with the Iranian siege of the American embassy in Tehran in 1979. But it is only in the last few years that a direct military confrontation has emerged as real, maybe even imminent, prospect. It&rsquo;s against this backdrop that Iranians will head to the polls on Friday for the preliminary round of their quadrennial presidential election.</p>
]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img class="alignleft" src="http://nyoobserver.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/iranpostbush.jpg?w=300&h=198" />It&rsquo;s often noted that the most hawkish elements in squabbling countries unwittingly enable and support each other. The stand-off between the United States and Iran illustrates this perfectly. Tensions between the countries date back decades, of course, beginning with the U.S.-instigated overthrow of Mohammed Mosaddeq and his democratically elected government in 1953 and escalating with the Iranian siege of the American embassy in Tehran in 1979. But it is only in the last few years that a direct military confrontation has emerged as real, maybe even imminent, prospect. It&rsquo;s against this backdrop that Iranians will head to the polls on Friday for the preliminary round of their quadrennial presidential election.</p>
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