In February, when Marist last asked the question, 44 percent approved of Bloomberg's job performance, which was an uptick from his all-time low of 37 percent in January, after the administration's handling of the blizzard.

"Mayor Bloomberg is not immune from ‘third term-itis,'" said Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, who directs the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, in the release. "If you mix together the rough winter weather, a sluggish economy, and the ongoing battle over public schools, he's spending too much of his political capital."

More than half of New Yorkers--53 percent--believe the city is headed in the wrong direction, a shift from 44 percent in February. That change in perception has occurred in all the boroughs, except Manhattan.

Nearly two-thirds disapprove of the mayor's handling of the city's public schools, and half of city residents think his push to reform Last In, First Out is simply a control issue.

The last time Marist inquired as to Bloomberg's handling of schools, back in July of 2009, 53 percent approved of his performance.

There's bad news on the budget too. Despite his television advertisements and a couple of targeted mailers, 56 percent of New Yorkers disapprove of how he's handling the city budget. Of course, those direct mail pieces are still landing in mailboxes, so maybe there's still time to turn it around.

That’s according to a new Marist poll, which shows Bloomberg leading Thompson 53 to 38 among likely voters, up slightly from last week, when Bloomberg led 52 to 36 percent.

In the latest poll, Bloomberg leads Thompson among Democrats, 47 to 39 percent.

Liz Benjamin noted that the 45 percent figure on the term limits question hasn't increased during the campaign. Adam Lisberg finds Lee Miringoff knocking down Geoff Garin's claim about Bloomberg's support softening. One figure that stood out to me: 25 percent of registered voters are “unsure” of or “never heard” of Thompson.

Michael Bloomberg leads Bill Thompson 53 to 35, according to a new Quinnipiac poll of 1,088 likely voters.

That’s virtually unchanged from their poll last month, which had Bloomberg leading 52 to 36.

This latest poll has Bloomberg leading 46 to 44 among Democrats, 61 to 24 among Independents, and 49 to 35 among Hispanics. Plus, he's leading in every borough.

Last week’s poll from Marist showed similar results, except it had Thompson leading in the Bronx.

A two-term incumbent just barely over 50 percent would normally have lots to worry about, if he were being challenged by someone who had convinced the public there was an electable alternative. Thompson, unable to crack 40 percent in public opinion polls, does not seem to have made that case effectively.

So, things are trending in Bloomberg's favor. He's even leading among Democratic voters, 47 to 39 percent.

Another figure that stood out to me: 62 percent of Thompson supporters think Bloomberg will win.

Regionally, Bloomberg is carrying Brooklyn, Queens and Manhattan by significant margins. In each of those areas, Bloomberg is above 50 percent while Thompson is below 40. In Staten Island, it’s 56 to 41 for Bloomberg. And in the Bronx, Thompson leads, but with only 43 percent. Bloomberg is polling there at 40 percent.

According to Marist, Democrats are almost split between Michael Bloomberg and Bill Thompson, 43 to 46 percent. Overall, Bloomberg is leading Thompson 50 to 39 percent.

The best news for Thompson in the poll is that among likely voters, Bloomberg's lead is less than 10 percent: 52 to 43 percent.

Also, Thompson's apparently soft numbers among African-Americans and Latinos are possible areas for growth.

Thompson leads Bloomberg among African-Americans, 52 to 37 percent, and among Latinos, Bloomberg leads Thompson 48 to 43 percent.

Adam Lisberg jumps into the poll and finds what he says are signs of voter fatigue with Bloomberg. One is that Bloomberg has a higher unfavorability rating, although I'd argue that that kind of goes along with the fact that the mayor is better known than his challenger.

Lisberg notes one other interesting fact: 58 percent of people supporting Thompson "say they support him because they want to vote against Bloomberg."

In a head-to-head match-up against Bill Thompson, Bloomberg leads 48 to 35 percent. Against Tony Avella, Bloomberg leads 53 to 29 percent.

In a Democratic primary, Thompson leads Avella 47 to 18 percent, with 35 percent undecided.

Pollster Lee Miringoff notes, “Weiner’s withdrawal from the race has benefited Thompson the most. In Marist’s May survey, Thompson received 29% of the vote to Avella’s 8%. Weiner was the leader at that time with 34% of the vote. 29% of Democrats were unsure.”

In the public advocate’s race, Mark Green comes close to the 40 percent he needs to avoid a run-off. Civil liberties attorney Normal Siegel has 16 percent, City Councilman Bill de Blasio has 9 percent and City Councilman Eric Gioia has 8 percent.

Bloomberg’s job approval is now at 59 percent, up from 52 percent in February, which was down from the 59 percent approval rating he had in a November Marist poll. 

Thirty-nine percent of voters say his work is "fair or poor."

There is no difference, statistically, between Democrats and Republicans when it comes to Bloomberg's approval—58 and 57 percent, respectively, say he's doing a good job.

Sixty-eight percent of unenrolled voters say the same.

Notably, in a hypothetical Democratic primary, Anthony Weiner beats Bill Thompson 34-29 percent. (Tony Avella has eight percent.)

In a hypothetical general election, Bloomberg still crushes any Democratic opponent, but Weiner performs slightly better.

The poll says if the election were held today, Bloomberg would defeat Weiner 50-36 percent, with 14 percent undecided. Against Bill Thompson, Bloomberg would win 51-33 percent, with 16 percent undecided.

One other statistic worth noting: 52 percent of African-Americans say Bloomberg’s job approval rating is “excellent” or “good,” while 48 percent rate it as “fair,” “poor” or “unsure.”

In a Marist poll released late last week, Bloomberg’s job approval rating was at 52-47 percent, down from 59-39 the last time they polled back in November 2008.

Quinnipiac today said Bloomberg’s most recent job approval rating numbers are the lowest he’s gotten during his second term. Marist last week said the job approval rating Bloomberg got in their poll is his lowest since August 2005.

In Quinnipaic’s poll today, 41 percent of voters said Bloomberg should run as an “independent,” with only 19 percent saying he should run as a Democrat, and only 11 percent saying he should run as a Republican. (Marist didn’t ask a similar question.)

Whatever Bloomberg runs as, according to the Quinnipiac poll, he easily defeats either of his Democratic opponents.

Bloomberg defeats City Comptroller Bill Thompson 50-33 percent, which Quinnipiac said is “virtually unchanged” from last month. Marist has this race at 53-36.

Bloomberg defeats Representative Anthony Weiner 48-36 percent. That’s a bit closer than how Quinnipiac had it last month, when Bloomberg led Weiner 50-35 percent. (Marist currently has this race at 53-37 percent.)

In Quinnipiac’s poll, both of Bloomberg’s major Democratic opponents are largely unknown to voters.

Thompson’s favorability rating is 22-5 percent, with 71 percent saying they don’t know enough about him.

Weiner’s favorability rating is 32-12 percent, with 55 percent saying they don’t know enough about him.

"Until he falls below that, then the yellow signs of caution are still just caution signs," Miringoff said.