Over the week, Republicans closed the tent. The establishment is now backing Doug Hoffman, an accountant who was nominated by the Conservative Party after Republicans picked Scozzafava. He has won the primary that never happened.

It's brewed for weeks: presumptive presidential candidates Sarah Palin and Tim Pawlenty declared their support for Hoffman. National PACs upset with Scozzafava's support of the federal stimulus, EFCA, same-sex marriage and abortion rights poured on money and attacks. Fred Thompson cut an ad for Hoffman.

At some point, Hoffman had gone from odd-ball spoiler to the best chance the Republicans have of keeping the seat out of Democratic hands. The National Republican Congressional Committee stopped attacking him and the Democrats, whose candidate Bill Owens was slowly and quietly building support, started.

The fatal blows to Scozzafava came Thursday. Representative Pete Sessions, chairman of the NRCC told Politico that if he won, Hoffman would be welcomed "with open arms." That night, George Pataki, the moderate former New York governor told a reception of Conservative Party members that he was backing Hoffman. It was a harbinger that the state Republican establishment--Chairman Ed Cox has skipped many opportunities to fight for Scozzafava--was gone along with the national guys. Then word of a new poll got around: Hoffman and Owens were in a dead heat, and Scozzafava was fatally lagging. She issued a statement Saturday morning, and "released" her supporters to do as they pleased. Dede Scozzafava never backed away from her moderate positions, and they killed her.

"You could smell it coming a mile away," said Jim Ellis, the Franklin County Republican chairman whose own views are more conservative than Scozzafava's. "I think Dede had the misfortune of running at a time when that particular message that she was putting out there had no relevance, and the NRCC basically wouldn't let her do what she normally would have done."

It was the local party officials--guided by Ellis--who settled on Scozafava; not the national partisans. Some chairs had reservations, but Scozzafava built a coalition of moderates to get the nomination, leaving bad feelings in the minds of some of the more conservative chairs.

It didn't matter at first. Scozzafava was the first declared candidate, and built an operation consisting of the consulting firm Capitol Public Strategies--a haven for old Pataki hands like Dave Catalfamo and Bill McGahay--and two staff operatives: Matt Burns and Michael Backus, John McHugh's former chief-of-staff. The NRCC sent two staffers and set about doing what the NRCC does: attack the opponents.

Predictably, the factions clashed. The internal staffers plotted a strategy based on Scozzafava's record in the Assembly, producing ads like this one and advising Scozzafava to not sign a national Taxpayer Protection Pledge that Hoffman was touting.

But no money was coming in. Scozzafava had in the past run with the support of labor unions and small-time donors that knew her over her political career. On a national scene, this completely blunted her in Republican fund-raising circles, especially with Hoffman as an alternative.

"Social stands might make people unsettled, but it's the economic issues that are really driving people and donations away. She's alienated the conservative, free enterprise wing of the party," said one prominent New York Republican. "Card check? The stimulus? I can't make a call to anyone on her behalf because of those things."

The money to pay Capitol Public Strategies ran out. The internal staff was overwhelmed.

The NRCC was left holding the bag, and as Ellis said, was unwilling to build on the support Scozzafava had, lest it alienate its own national donor base.

"Where were the pro-choice women's groups? Where were the marriage equality folks? How come no one went up to Doug Hoffman's accounting firm with signs attacking him for hating their gay daughter?" said one Republican operative familiar with the campaign.

"The argument was that she didn't have a clear path to victory," said a different operative familiar with the campaign.

Finally, the NRCC bailed and Scozzafava walked away. Loads of Republicans uncourageously jumped off the fence.

"By suspending her campaign it makes it possible for the Republican Party and the Conservative Party to unite and support the basic core values of the Republican Party on Tuesday," said Rick Lazio, who seeks both parties' blessing in a run for governor. "I congratulate her for her selflessness and join her and other Republicans in supporting Doug Hoffman for United States Congress."

"Dede Scozzafava has placed her Party and her principles over politics and position for years," said Cox, whose spokesman on Thursday insisted he was working hard to support her. "For those who know her, her actions today come as no surprise because they show real leadership. It is testament to her character and strength under difficult circumstances. Throughout her career, she has built a record of standing up for the people of the North County. This move demonstrates her commitment to ensuring that those people have a Republican, fiscally conservative voice in Congress."

"With Assemblywoman Scozzafava suspending her campaign, we urge voters to support Doug Hoffman's candidacy in New York's 23rd Congressional District," said Sessions, along with Republican Leader John Boehner and Whip Eric Cantor. "He is the only active candidate in the race who supports lower taxes, fiscal responsibility and opposes Nancy Pelosi's agenda of government-run healthcare, more government and less jobs. We look forward to welcoming Doug Hoffman into the House Republican Conference as we work together for the good of our nation."

Ellis told me he's "weighing" supporting Hoffman. Scozzafava is conspicuously not: given the mud he's slung at her, that probably breaks more favorably for him than would any endorsement.

"I could talk a lot about things that went right, and things that went wrong, but there's no point," Scozzafava said in an interview this morning. "Things happen for a reason, and I believe there's better things to come."

Bill Nojay, a conservative Republican talk show host in Central New York said that one of two questions at stake is now settled.

"She was out of sync with a new evolving direction for the Republican Party both nationally and in New York State. When you have George Pataki endorsing the Conservative, that tells you that the most experienced Republicans recognize that there's been a sea change in Republican politics," he told me. "And now that Dede's out of the way, it's now a take off the gloves yea or nay on the Obama administration."

He's been cast, understandably, in the spoiler role—the guy running to the right of Republican Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, who would siphon off enough votes from her that Bill Owens, the Democratic Party's nominee, would win the race to replace John McHugh. But the legs have been cut from underneath Scozzafava's candidacy in recent days: She's running low on cash as groups pound her with hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of ads. She had a disastrous appearance yesterday in front of Hoffman's headquarters. She called the cops on a reporter for The Weekly Standard, then lied to reporters about it. Conservative editorial pages—The Washington Times, The Wall Street Journal—and pundits—Michelle Malkin, Glenn Beck—are now putting their marbles behind Hoffman. The Washington Examiner just called on Scozzafava to withdraw from the race.

"Here's the question," Roger Stone, the conservative Republican strategist, said. "Will he voters of the 23rd see this as a race where two liberals split the liberal vote allowing the Republican to win, or will two Republicans split the Republican and allow the Democrat to win?"

Conservatives have been saying this all along, and may wind up with a great told-you-so moment if Hoffman wins, or finishes ahead of Scozzafava. (Polls show him closing the gap.)

"There is no doubt in my mind that she will come in last," said George Marlin, a conservative blogger and banker.  "Once again, the Republicans learn that you cannot out-Democrat the Democrats. And when you try to, your base explodes."

Everyone points to the 1970 election of James Buckley to the U.S. Senate. Charles Goodell, a moderate Republican, was appointed by Governor Nelson A. Rockefeller after Robert F. Kennedy was killed by Sirhan Sirhan. In office, he began to oppose the Vietnam War, and ran Democrat Rick Ottinger and Buckley on the Conservative Party line. Buckley squeaked out the win and served until 1976.

The key for Conservatives backing Hoffman has been to paint Scozzafava as a liberal, pointing to her record as a legislator in Albany—she voted twice to legalize gay marriage—her past associations with ACORN and the Working Families Party and her votes in favor of budgets that contained tax increases. Hoffman and his surrogates have been doing this for weeks now, and without financial backing, Scozzafava has been left without the resources to shoot back.

The other trick here is to remember that Republican leaders in the district are relatively comfortable with Hoffman, given their options. While Scozzafava won the nomination, it left bad feelings in the minds of some local county chairs and committee members—and some might even support him. George Joseph, chairman of the Oneida County Republican Committee, told a conservative blogger that he's written off the election. (He thinks a Democrat will win.)

I asked Jim Ellis, chairman of the Franklin County Republican Committee, if there were Republican Party functionaries out there who have already abandoned Scozzafava.

"I have no disagreement with that proposition," he said. "They're either going to work with Hoffman or they're going to lay back and do nothing."

Ellis said he would continue to work for the Republican nominee. Jim Kelly, a conservative activist who briefly tried to seek the party's nomination, told me things were "fractured" among the Republican base.

"I've received a phone call from two county leaders and they said, 'This was a big mistake.' We knew it in our heart of hearts," Kelly said, declining, of course, to say who called.

Assemblyman Jim Tedisco, who considers himself more conservative than his colleague Scozzafava, disagreed.

"I think you've got to look at the next poll, because if it's close, I don't think you make that determination. You stick with your endorsed candidate," Tedisco told me. "I think it says a very bad message to not only this state, but other states, when our local chairmen decide on a candidate, and that's a part of our problem. When you settle on a candidate after a process, you support that candidate."

If elected, Hoffman would caucus with Republicans and would seek the Republican line for reelection, his spokesman Rob Ryan said. So there won't be much of a difference from a partisan perspective.

The problem with this easy cruise is Hoffman. He's not particularly nimble, in terms of his presentation, and it's not apparent that he has a particularly good grasp of the issues. I found this when we spoke about health care, and Jude Seymour seemed struck by some of Hoffman's non-answers before the editorial board of the Watertown Daily Times.

Scozzafava's people point this out. Matt Burns, her campaign spokesman, said Hoffman is "grossly unable to represent the people of the 23rd Congressional District when he can't even answer questions or agree to debate the issues."

The thing is that most people—myself included—have written off Hoffman as a mere spoiler. We shouldn't have assumed.

According to the latest filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, members of the Scozzafava family on May 20 exchanged preferred stock in Seaway Valley Capital Corp. for a convertible debenture--or a debt holding that could be converted to common stock--that will pay 12 percent in interest. The chairman, CEO and chief financial officer of SVCC. is Thomas Scozzafava, the assemblywoman's brother.

Assemblywoman Scozzafava has been designated by Republicans as their candidate to replace John McHugh in Congress. She has previously been attacked for her association with the business, which she has consistently downplayed. The move by the Scozzafava family, and by the candidate, to insulate themselves from risks to which regular shareholders continue to be exposed will only make it easier for opponents to paint her as a corporate insider.

In an interview earlier this week, Scozzafava told me she is a "passive investor" in the company, and made the investment to "create jobs in the North Country" as well as fill a retail void. The company operates several retail stores throughout the district. She told me and another reporter then that she had a debt obligation in the company, not stock, but stated she held preferred stock on a recently filed disclosure form.

According to Kathleen Farrell, professor of finance at University of Nebraska in Lincoln, the swap "could be interpreted as perfecting these individuals' position in case there's a bankruptcy."

"You're better off in a debt instrument if the company isn't doing well, because you're better off getting something in the event of a bankruptcy," Farrell said. In court-supervised liquidations, creditors are paid in order of seniority, with common stockholders--members of the public who own SVCC shares, which trade for fractions of a cent--are paid last. Often they receive nothing for their holdings after a bankruptcy.

Scozzafava's holding is worth between $1 and $5 million.

The latest quarterly filing shows that SVCC is not doing well. It lost $6.8 million between March 31 and June 31, and now has a negative equity--that is the amount that its debts exceed it assets--of $18.5 million.

"Its ability to continue as a going concern is dependent upon achieving sales growth, reduction of operation expenses and ability of the Company to obtain the necessary financing to meet its obligations and pay its liabilities arising from normal business operations when they come due, and upon profitable operations," the filing states. "The outcome of these matters cannot be predicted with any certainty at this time and raise substantial doubt that the Company will be able to continue as a going concern."

Sales were down, not surprisingly, due to a "generally weak economy." But the company continued to invest money, the filing indicates, and more capital was poured into it by Seaway Capital Partners, a private investment partnership of which Scozzafava is an officer.

This quarterly update was scheduled to be filed weeks ago, but the delay happened "because there was a delay in completing the adjustments necessary to close its books for the quarter," according to another form.

In response to questions about why Scozzafava exchanged her stock, campaign spokesman Matt Burns issued this statement:

"Dede has been detailed and transparent in disclosing her personal finances.  She has disclosed well beyond what is required by the Federal Elections Commission -- and well beyond what has been asked or demanded of any other candidate in this race.  In fact, Bill Owens and Doug Hoffman have revealed zero about their own financial histories.  Instead, they continue to hide behind the dirty work of Washington, D.C.-based political operatives who are running a smear campaign against Dede.  The bottom line is that Dede has most of her life savings invested in the North Country -- as she has outlined in her filing.  The people of the 23rd Congressional District will reject the negative, nasty campaigns being run by her opponents and their supporters."