Monday: How I Met Your Mother
Is Monday night the new Thursday night? Tonight brings the season premiere of House, a new Gossip Girl, a two-hour Heroes (yep, that show is still on the air) and the launching of the CBS Monday night comedy block, which includes the series premiere of Jenna Elfman’s Accidentally on Purpose. Phew! Us? We’ll be watching Gossip Girl at 9 p.m., natch [Ed note: But some of us will be watching House]. But before that, we’ll definitely tune in to the season premiere of How I Met Your Mother. We aren’t even sure whether to call the comedy a cult hit anymore—after all, tonight marks the start of season five—but it still feels like less people watch this than they should (this despite the fact that every person we know counts it as one of their favorites.) Come on, folks! What are you waiting for? [CBS, 8 p.m.]

Tuesday: North by Northwest
Our favorite Alfred Hitchcock film manages to be his most accessible. You know the story, but in brief: Everyman extraordinaire Cary Grant gets mistaken for a spy and away we go; cue a cross country chase that culminates on Mount Rushmore. What we’re always amazed by whenever we watch North by Northwest is how it manages to be so thoroughly modern. Whereas some old movies don’t hold up, this one feels like it could be released today and become a huge hit. [TCM, 8 p.m.]

Wednesday: Mercy
Apparently 2009 is the Year of the Nurse. Who knew? We have yet to see Mercy, but from the promos it feels like the new series will to slot itself somewhere in between the darkness of Nurse Jackie and the treacle of HawthoRNe. Nurse Veronica Callahan (Taylor Schilling) has just returned from a tour of duty in Iraq and—wouldn’t you know it—she’s the only person at Mercy Hospital that actually knows what they’re doing! We can’t say we’re all that interested in Mercy, but that it features Michelle Trachtenberg—as the naïve young nurse—makes us take notice. Still, truth be told, we hope Mercy gets canceled, just so Ms. Trachtenberg can become a full-time cast member on Gossip Girl before the year is out. Georgina Sparks forever! [NBC, 8 p.m.]

Thursday: Grey’s Anatomy
Speaking of bad doctor soap operas: Grey’s Anatomy is back! The show you love to hate returns with a two-hour season premiere that will feature the official death of George O’Malley (T.R. Knight, probably happy for the first time in three years) and the recovery of Izzie Stevens (Katherine Heigl, probably still hating every second she has to spend working on Grey’s). With Ellen Pompeo pregnant, and, Ms. Heigl and Patrick Dempsey taking off for episodes at a time to star in movies, expect this season to be a transitional one. Whether Grey’s can become the next ER—forever regenerating its sprawling cast—rests solely on what happens this year. [ABC, 9 p.m.]

Friday: Gangs of New York
The most disappointing news of the fall? That Paramount shifted the Martin Scorsese-Leonardo DiCaprio thriller Shutter Island from its October release date to February. Boo! Now where are we supposed to get our Scorsese/DiCaprio fix? We’ll just have to settle for Gangs of New York instead, which isn’t as good as The Departed and isn’t as bad as The Aviator in the Scorsese/DiCaprio oeuvre. Them aside, the real star here is Daniel Day-Lewis (would you expect anything less?). As the villain, aptly named Bill the Butcher, Mr. Day-Lewis does Daniel Plainview-before-Daniel Plainview, stomping and chomping scenery like a Method Godzilla; he’s brilliant, even if the movie never actually reaches that height. [IFC, 2:45 a.m.]

If there is a silver lining to be found in the end of the summertime—besides these seasonable temperatures!—it’s that we are on the precipice of the fall television season. Thank goodness. In an effort to get you and your DVR prepared, here’s the Observer’s fall TV preview. Yesterday, we talked about CBS. Next up, the big peacock NBC!

The Jay Leno Show (Weeknights at 10 p.m., premieres September 14)

What NBC says: “On the final episode of The Tonight Show with Jay Leno, the host reminded viewers not to get too teary-eyed during his last stint behind the desk he has occupied for 17-years by reminding them that he would be back on NBC this fall with his new venture The Jay Leno Show.” Opening night guests include Jerry Seinfeld and a performance of “Run This Town” by Jay-Z and featuring Kanye West and Rihanna.

What we say: Have you heard that Jay Leno is hosting a new show in primetime? Us neither! Kidding aside, we actually think the most talked about decision of the season could end up being one of the smartest made by NBC in a long time. The Jay Leno Show gives the fledgling network cheap programming that could do very respectable when it comes to ratings. At the very least, it can’t possibly be worse than My Own Worst Enemy.

What we’ll say six months from now: “Yep, Jay does still have better numbers than Dave. What the hell is wrong with you, America?”

Trauma (Mondays at 9 p.m., premieres September 28)

What NBC says: “Executive producer Peter Berg (Friday Night Lights) delivers Trauma, the first high-octane medical drama series to live exclusively in the field where the real action is. Like an adrenaline shot to the heart, Trauma is an intense, action-packed look at one of the most dangerous medical professions in the world: first responder paramedics.”

What we say: And the award for the most generic sounding show of the fall goes to… Trauma! We love Mr. Berg’s track record and have a soft spot for Derek Luke (the most recognizable name of the mostly unrecognizable ensemble), but Trauma just feels like a show that should have been burned off during the summertime.

What we’ll say six months from now: “What was Trauma again?”

Mercy (Wednesdays at 9 p.m., premieres September 23)

What NBC says: “Mercy, a new medical drama with a unique point of view, portrays the lives of the staff at Mercy Hospital as seen through the eyes of those who know it best: its nurses. Nurse Veronica Callahan (Taylor Schilling, Dark Matter) returns to Mercy from a military tour in Iraq—and she knows more about medicine than all of the residents combined. Together with fellow nurses Sonia Jimenez (Jamie Lee Kirchner, Rescue Me) and Chloe Payne (Michelle Trachtenberg, Gossip Girl), Callahan navigates through the daily traumas and social landmines of life and love both inside the hospital and out in the real world.”

What we say: Wait, did we say Trauma was the most generic sounding show of the fall? Maybe we spoke too soon. Mercy (what is it with NBC and one name titles?) looks poisonous enough to make Grey’s Anatomy tolerable. Not even the presence of the lovely Ms. Trachtenberg could make us watch this thing.

What we’ll say six months from now: “Thank God Mercy got canceled in time for Michelle Trachtenberg to come back for the final five episodes of Gossip Girl!”

Community (Thursdays at 9:30 p.m., premieres September 17)

What NBC says: “From Emmy Award-winning directors Joe and Anthony Russo (Arrested Development) comes Community, a smart comedy series about higher education—and lower expectations.” The Soup’s Joel McHale and Chevy Chase co-star.

What we say: Now here’s a show we’re legitimately excited about! Everything we’ve seen from Community—about life inside a community college—has made us cackle with delight; don’t be surprised if this series continued NBC’s golden touch with comedies. As an added bonus, say hello to who could be the breakout star of the fall: Between Community and his appearance in Steven Soderbergh’s The Informant! it’s clear Mr. McHale isn’t just for basic cable anymore.

What we’ll say six months from now: “We think we like Community more than The Office.”

While thousands of words have been written about the lack of ethnic diversity on primetime television, people seem to be ignoring the fact that nearly every show has become one big blob of grey matter. To wit: while we love that the white-hat wearing heroes of yesteryear have been replaced by dark and twisty characters like Jack Shephard from Lost, Jack Bauer from 24 and even Meredith Grey on Grey’s Anatomy (the very definition of dark and twisty), the muddying of the waters has had a boomerang effect on villains. Basically: they aren’t bad anymore! Even people ostensibly set up to be heartless bastards—Benjamin Linus on Lost and, recently, Tony Almeida on 24, to name two—have been given shades of ambiguity and motives that could possibly be construed as righteous. Don’t even get us started on the ladies! Not to focus solely on Lost, but remember when Juliet was this foul wench of manipulation? Now she’s shacking up with Sawyer and making sandwiches, teary eyed at the mere thought of losing her domestic bliss. Then there’s Gossip Girl’s Blair and Serena, both equally set-up to be Mean Girls and yet reduced to frenemies who routinely share warm hugs.

It seems then that only Ms. Trachtenberg has been given the freedom to embrace her inner scoundrel. And thank goodness! Even while she was behaving like a Bible-thumping, Carrie Underwood fan (if you haven’t been watching, just go with it), it was clear that Georgina’s menace lurked just below the surface, waiting to lash out like the shark in Jaws. Television needs more actresses like Ms. Trachtenberg, unafraid to go totally bad. (That she’s trapped in something as benign as NBC’s Mercy has us a bit concerned, but since we fully expect that show to get canceled before the New Year, we’re not that worried.) To quote Georgina: “You can tell Jesus that the bitch is back.” Amen, sister. And not a moment too soon.

100 Questions

Actor Christopher Moynihan, last seen on NBC as part of the ill-fated attempt to bring Coupling to American shores, goes behind the scenes to executive produce this comedy about—wait for it—five single friends living in New York! And there’s a laugh track! We dare you to watch the four-minute extended preview and not want to immediately claw your eyes out and/or run and watch an episode of How I Met Your Mother to wash the bad taste out of your mouth. Seriously, why would NBC even bother with this?

Probability of a second season: 3%

Trauma

The first thing that has to go is the title: can you imagine telling your friends you watch something called Trauma? That aside, the series—about a group of first-responder paramedics—just feels like the kind that gets relegated to Friday nights and cancelled within a month. We love star Derek Luke, but he has to find a better use of his time.

Probability of a second season: 18%

Mercy

Not only can NBC save money with this show by recycling Grey’s Anatomy plots, they can also film it on the old ER sets. Win-win! Mercy deals with the lives of a trio of sassy/pretty nurses—played by Michelle Trachtenberg, Taylor Schilling and Jamie Lee Kirchner—as they navigate the troubled waters of Mercy Hospital. No truth to the rumor that the show was originally called Nurses.

Probability of a second season: 34%

Parenthood

Because the entire entertainment world is bereft of ideas, here comes a serialized version of Ron Howard’s Parenthood, a film that came out twenty years ago. We do want to like this show, specifically because Peter Krause—here taking what appears to be the Steve Martin role at the head of a large ensemble cast—deserves to be a gigantic star. Sadly though, everything we’ve seen thus far seems sorta dated. And even if the show turns out to be good, does anyone think it can survive in this economic landscape with such a big-name cast?

Probability of a second season: 49%

Community

Say hello to the one new show on NBC’s schedule that could be a legitimate success. Joel McHale stars as a former lawyer forced to go back to community college to get his degree. There, he meets a crew of misfits, headed by Chevy Chase. Community plays like a hybrid of Arrested Development and Stripes, and, best of all, there isn’t a faux-documentary crew or laugh track to be found. We’re making progress here, people!

Probability of a second season: 62%