Dustin Lance Black (Getty Images)

Milk’s Oscar-winning screenwriter Dustin Lance Black told The Observer that he was opposed to President Obama’s recent declaration of support for same-sex marriage. “Well, because I think marriage is between a man and a woman, I was incredibly upset,” Mr. Black said, biting a nail. He was joking, though in a quiet, grave tone--the premiere for his directorial debut, Virginia (starring Jennifer Connelly and out this Friday) had been the night before, and he was the worse for wear.

Mr. Black, whose career has included biopics of two of the most prominent queer politicians in history (the openly gay Harvey Milk, the closeted psychosexual morass of J. Edgar Hoover), said that he’d long believed Mr. Obama would come out in favor of gay marriage. In fact, the screenwriter had tried to force the issue. “I had two weeks earlier put a piece in the Hollywood Reporter saying that gay people might consider not supporting the president in the re-election campaign if he didn’t come out in favor. And I hit Romney hard in a way he deserved to be hit hard for his horrific stances on LGBT issues. And I said ‘we can’t be taken for granted anymore, we can’t vote for a less bad candidate.’

“And I took a lot of heat and I got beaten up for that, and I said, ‘It’s a hypothetical! I’m saying ‘If, then! If he doesn’t, then we might consider...’ You gotta ask for what you want in this world. And they were like, ‘He’ll never do it, it’s not a hypothetical.’ But he might do it!”

Mr. Black is now at work on a film adaptation of 8, about the legal struggle over Proposition 8 in California. The film’s to be directed by Rob Reiner. “It’s that Mormon thing,” said Mr. Black, who was raised in the Church of Latter-Day Saints and whose new film deals with life among Southern Mormons. “I’m industrious. Ambitious. I’m like the gay Mitt Romney... That’s a terrible thing to say.”

We mentioned that Virginia was less overtly political than Milk or J. Edgar, and asked if Mr. Black agreed with Godard’s belief that all film is political. “I agree with Godard and I agree with Oprah Winfrey. People are always asking ‘would you run for public office?’ And she says ‘I have so much more influence here.’ We get to tell human stories that have to do with human issues. At our best, we’re telling stories that have to do with problems in our country right now.”

Besides, he joked, we might have missed the point of the film altogether. ““Virginia is a real politician, she’s a gay man dressed as a woman. I thought of this as a sequel to Milk!”

daddario@observer.com :: @DPD_

Monday: The Painted Veil

File this under movies not enough people went to see: 2006’s The Painted Veil is a haunting drama, based on the (excellent) W. Somerset Maugham novel. The film stars Edward Norton and Naomi Watts as a British couple in the midst of marital strife, who go to a small Chinese village during a cholera outbreak. We’re pretty sure it’s one of the more ingenious take-revenge-on-your-cheating-wife plots ever; it has insanely gorgeous cinematography; and both of the lead actors turn in fantastic performances. Gosh, we wish Edward Norton worked more (we got to talk to Mr. Norton way back when about making this film, and can report that he’s super smart…like a computer!) [HBO, 12 p.m.]

Tuesday: The Biggest Loser

Some people watch The Biggest Loser for the inspiration (people changing their lives healthily and for the better), others for the contestant drama (that Tracey lady is totes the craziest person we’ve ever seen on this thing) and still more because it makes one feel thin and pretty by comparison (till sometime later in the season when the contestants start weighing within 20lbs instead of 200lbs from you). But for those who still need more convincing, Derek Jeter pops up tonight to lead the fatties (what? They are!) in a baseball challenge. We know, our head just went boom, too. (Though we’d be remiss if we didn’t also mention that the classic It’s the Great Pumpkin, Charlie Brown is on ABC tonight. People, this is what the DVR was invented for). [NBC, 8 p.m.]

Wednesday: Modern Family

We know that our own Christopher Rosen doesn’t agree, but we don’t care: Modern Family is the funniest new show on television, and it is fast becoming a consistent bright spot in our weekly television viewing. The good news, for those not yet on board, is that it’s easy to join in. In the show, three different families make up one big complicated one, and it is sharply written with great actors. Al Bundy/Ed O’Neill stars! Here’s a clip from last week for everyone to enjoy. [ABC, 9 p.m.]

Thursday: Milk

There was an awful lot of hype this time last year for the movie Milk. It had all these big stars (Sean Penn, Josh Brolin, James Franco, Emile Hirsch, Diego Luna, Alison Pill) and maybe one of the best trailers we’ve ever seen, and you know what? It holds up! HBO started running this movie last weekend, and it’s worth watching again for the snappy Oscar-winning screenplay by Dustin Lance Black, the excellently understated performance by Mr. Brolin and the man who took home the best actor award, Sean Penn (who basically admitted during his Oscar acceptance speech that he’s kind of a jerk!) [HBO, 4:15 a.m.]

Friday:  Friday Night Lights

We bet you’re wishing you had Direct TV now….for those lucky ducks who have no problem putting something on their roof that allows them to get stuff from outer space, Friday Night Lights season four premieres. This is the little-show-that-could, perhaps one of the very best that is somehow always in danger of being cancelled. Don’t let it! Tonight’s season opener will be directed by executive producer Peter Berg (who hasn’t been behind the camera since the show’s pilot in 2006), and it sure is going to get interesting fast out there in Texas, with Coach Taylor coaching the East Dillon Lions (ack!) and hottest-mom-ever Tami Taylor still working as the principal of West Dillon High. Who gets to keep the “clear eyes full hearts can’t lose” manta? And where is Tim Riggins!? For all us fans without Direct TV, we’ll just have to wait and see this one in 2010. Sigh. [DirectTV, 9 p.m.]

7.) Cadillac Records: We missed this when it hit theaters, despite the good reviews, and we’ll probably end up missing it on DVD as well. This just feels like the movie in your Netflix queue that you always put five other movies above. There’s always cable…

6.) Rachel Getting Married: A true example of the parts being better than the sum of the whole. Anne Hathaway is amazing throughout, we have a cinematography crush on Declan Quinn, and Jonathan Demme does his best faux-Altman/Cassavettes impression. Yet... the movie is an arch bore that over stays its welcome by twenty minutes.

5.) Let the Right One In: The beloved Swedish import, which is being turned into a sure-to-be hated American remake by Cloverfield director Matt Reeves, centers on a young boy who falls in love with a young girl who turns out to be a vampire. Tomas Alfredson’s film is supposed to be alternatively touching and horrifying, but we expect to spend a lot of the running time with the remote control firmly planted over our eyes.

4.) Synecdoche, New York: Everything we heard about Charlie Kaufman’s directorial debut made the film sound about as much fun as attending a funeral. But now that it’s on DVD, what better way to spend a Saturday night?

3.) Happy-Go-Lucky: However, we may wash Synecdoche, New York down with this one. Mike Leigh’s film is every bit as happy-go-lucky as its title. And if anyone out there wants to do a recount to find out how Sally Hawkins didn’t get an Oscar nomination, be our guest.

2.) Milk: We liked Milk enough when we saw it last November, but we were slightly disappointed anyway with all the effusive praise. Still, we’re anxious to revisit the film on DVD to see if Sean Penn and Josh Brolin were indeed as good as we remember, and if Diego Luna was as bad.

1.) Role Models: We never did a top-ten list for 2008, but if we had, Role Models would have certainly been invited to the party. Take everything you love about Judd Apatow movies, combine them with David Wain’s absurdist sense of humor and then give the film a load of truly earned emotions. Role Models is the best kind of comedy: one that actually makes you feel for the characters. Also, the cursing children and KISS songs don’t hurt either.

Let’s start with the stage, with the 92,000-Swarovski-crystal curtain which looked like something that got thrown up straight from Moonstruck-era Cher’s brain - razzle dazle doesn’t begin to describe it. And then there’s Hugh Jackman. We’ve already heard a lot of dissenting chatter about the Aussie’s hosting duties, but we’re just going to come out and say it: nailed it! Because listen, that man committed. He went out there for his debut Oscar-hosting night and put on an opening number that we still actually can’t believe happened. He started, gracefully, with a self deprecating joke about his giant bomb of a film Australia and led into a song and dance number – including inspired bits encompassing the big five plus a much needed shout out to snubbed Dark Knight - that had that jaded crowd at the Kodak on their feet. Props to Anne Hathaway for a shockingly good faux impromptu assist (who knew she could sing?). But our favorite moment (not including Mr. Jackman pausing in front of Brad and Angelina and admitting, “I don’t have a joke for them, I’m just contractually obligated to mention them five times”) was when Mr. Jackman crawled on top of a Wrestler­-like ring and belted out, “Because I am Hugh Jackman!” It’s true! He is Hugh Jackman – and no recession can silence his song. Gosh, we might suddenly be in love with him – how many more days till Wolverine anyway?

And now, because we just can’t think of any other way to do this, here is a rundown of some of the highs and lows of the 81st Annual Academy Awards.

Best Supporting Actress: The powers-that-be promised us a whole new kind of Oscar show and with the first category this proved entirely true. Having past Supporting Actress winners onstage was lovely, and clearly unexpected even to the nominees. Tilda Swinton, Eva Marie Saint, Whoopie Goldberg, Goldie Hawn and Anjelica Houston stood up there and took the time to individually praise each of the nominees. Every single one of them – Viola Davis, Amy Adams, Taraji P. Henson, Marisa Tomei and winner Penélope Cruz (who gave a kick ass speech) looked downright misty, and it actually felt honest-to-god special. Nice work everyone! But, we did miss the film clips….call us traditionalists.

Tina Fey and Steve Martin: Our favorite presenters had to be Tina Fey (looking smokin’ hot!) and Steve Martin for the best writing awards. We could watch these two go back and forth (Fey: “They say that to write is to live forever”. Martin: “The man who wrote that is dead.”). Hey woah, was that bit about the tree and seeds and crazy alien kings a Scientology joke? We sure hope so!

Most Awkward Presentation: We know we can’t be the only one that was completely distracted during the animation awards with Jack Black and Jennifer Aniston standing, like, four feet away from Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie. Eegads! Hope the evil overloads at ABC don't go for the easy pan to the happy couple…oh wait, too late.

Styx Shout out! Oh my, did Kunio Kato, winner of the best animated short really just say Domo arigato, Mr. Roboto? AWESOME. 

The curious case of Sarah Jessica Parker’s boobs: How come no one pulled the top of her dress up? Serious, serious spillage. Just not right at all.

Wacky, wacky love montage: There is no one alive who loves a montage the way we do. But…we’re so confused by this “Romance in 2008” mess! Was that Seven Pounds, Made of Honor, and What Happens in Vegas we saw in there? Really?

God we love James Franco: The bit between Seth Rogan and James Franco as their Pineapple Express The Reader and Doubt, making up a song about Mama Mia!, getting sentimental about Milk – all great. But add in cinemetographer Janusz Kaminski (“They made me do it, Mr. Spielberg. It’s really slow in town.”) rolling around on the couch watching You Don’t Mess With the Zohan and it’s even better.

Uber-weird second musical number: We were so with you Hugh Jackman! But then they made you do this other weird second musical montage-y performance piece. With Beyonce! You'd think we'd love it and yet, and yet...it was more than a little too much. Oh wait, it was dreamed up by Baz Luhrmann - yup, that explains everything.  

Zac Efron no mas!: We get that the High School Musical kid is some sort of big f'n deal. We don't care. We saw way way way too much of him during this Oscar show.  

Phillippe Petit in da house!: Man on Wire subject Philippe Petit certainly knows how to accept an award! Jumping around, doing magic, balancing a statue on his face. Bravo! 

Another amazing Tom Cruise cameo: Did you see the totally awesome chompers' "I don't have a cat" Jimmy Kimmel commercial? If not, YouTube it immediately. 

Oh no they didn't!: Nooooo Oscars no! Don't mess with the holy death montage! Having Queen Latifah singing through the montage did not work. It competed with the clips, which we couldn't really see anyway with all the zooming cameras.  Also, what's with there being zero sound? Bring back the snippets from the honoree's best work.

Best Actress: Wow….Sofia Loren…we don’t know what to say about how you look. But god, could we love Marion Cotillard and her tiny, tiny, waist any more? Kate Winslet couldn’t have been surprised, but we do love that her dad whistled for her from the darkened crowd.

Sean Penn knows he’s a jerk! “I do know how hard I make it to appreciate me – often.” Okay, that’s fair…and almost makes us love Sean Penn again. Also, not annoying this time around for an actor to use their time to make a political statement for equal rights for homosexuals. This was certainly the right Oscars for it.

Art Direction: Changeling, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, The Duchess, Revolutionary Road

With no Slumdog Millionaire to steal its thunder, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button will happily win this award. And we guess it deserves to: Those teacups that Brad Pitt and Tilda Swinton drank out of were pretty awesome, right?

Cinematography: Changeling, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, The Reader, Slumdog Millionaire

For some unknown reason, everyone loves the work that Anthony Dod Mantle did on Slumdog Millionaire. Apparently when you steal equal parts of City of God and Man on Fire, you become a genius. Who knew? He'll win, but we still want a recount to find out why Harris Savides missed out on a nomination for Milk.

Costume Design: Austrailia, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Duchess, Milk, Revolutionary Road

We're tempted to select Benjamin Button here based on Cate Blanchett's red dress alone, but if we know Hollywood, they love an honest to goodness period piece. The giant dresses and constricting corsets of The Duchess are tailor made for this award (nyuck, nyuck).

Film Editing: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, Milk, Slumdog Millionaire

The Dark Knight is too long, and to say the fight scenes are somewhat difficult to follow would be kind. But! The action set piece that climaxes with an 18-wheeler flipping over is literally the film sequence of the year. On that alone, we think The Dark Knight takes this trophy home. Well, that and the fact that we didn't like Slumdog Millionaire.

Makeup: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, Hellboy II: The Golden Army

We loved Heath Ledger's Joker makeup and all, but in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, they made Cate Blanchett look scary old. Ladies and gentlemen, your winner!

Score: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Defiance, Milk, Slumdog Millionaire, Wall-E

We've been all over Alexandre Desplat's score from Benjamin Button for months. It manages to be both beautiful and timeless. Seriously, you'll be hearing this music in mawkish movie trailers for the next ten years.

Visual Effects: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, Iron Man

In Iron Man they made Robert Downey Jr. fly. Cool enough. But in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, David Fincher and his special effects wizards took Brad Pitt's face and digitally grafted it onto another body. Old man babies always top flying robot suits.

The Reader

My choice for Best Picture would be The Reader. I think it’s a magnificent film about little people with big experiences. It’s a movie that, at a time when movies are not about much of anything, is a very important film about how one generation pays the price for the sins of an older generation. And the generations meld through these intimate experiences. This is certainly true of America’s involvement in Vietnam. It’s true of all the things the Germans are asking of their elders: “What did you do in the war, Daddy?” I was very, very moved by it. There were two movies that moved me to tears and they were The Reader and Revolutionary Road, which is not nominated. But of the five films nominated, The Reader was the only one that really moved me to tears.

The Curious Case of
Benjamin Button

Benjamin Button is the most imaginative of all five nominated films. It’s the film that best utilizes all aspects of filmmaking: color, sound, special effects, acting, directing, script, cinematography—they all blend in that movie. With most movies you remember one performance and you don’t remember anything else. Or you think the script is really good but the movie was not up to the demands of the script. In Benjamin Button, everything works.

Milk

I think Milk is a movie you can admire without feeling really passionate about. It’s more like a newsreel but with a central performance by Sean Penn that keeps you interested. He’s wonderful in it. But the word is respectable. … I don’t feel anything about this film like how I do about The Reader and how I do about Revolutionary Road. … I will never ever understand why that was not nominated.

Slumdog Millionaire

Slumdog Millionaire is the film that will probably win, although I think it’s popular for all the wrong reasons—in any other year it would get swept under the carpet. This is the year that new, younger members of the Academy want to prove that less is more. They want little films with nobody anybody has ever heard of to win prizes. And preferably inexpensive films. And I love the way everybody thinks this is a happy movie. I was so depressed by it that I wanted to kill myself. I’m happy about the game show aspect of it, but the life that it depicts is miserable and the solution to making it better is preposterous. There’s no way that little boy would ever win that show! I mean, it’s a miserable world that they depict in that film, and everyone feels just great because it’s just so positive and he wins—he would never win. I didn’t believe that for one minute. Plus, there were people out to kill him! That’s not a happy movie … and that poor girl, what a life she has. … It’s awful for all of them. But I liked the film, I’m not saying I didn’t like it. I liked it because it was fresh. 

Frost/Nixon

That is a great example of opening up a play and making a claustrophobic subject bigger than it really is … with two central performances that make a perfect tennis match, you know? But is it a movie that I will remember years from now? No. I won’t remember it any more than I remember JFK or any of those movies about controversial people. I’m surprised it’s nominated. I would much rather have seen Revolutionary Road nominated than Frost/Nixon. Or even Wall-E! I mean … Frost/Nixon is not a best movie of the year. It’s a perfectly honorable attempt to open up a well-written play. Although I don’t think any of these movies are a disgrace. … Usually I just think they are out of their minds. I don’t think that this year. I think these are five worthy nominees. They are worthy; I just don’t think they are all equally great.

BEST DIRECTOR

I would give it to the man who directed Benjamin Button, David Fincher. I love David Fincher’s work—I always have. I’ve loved all of his movies, I think … unless he did Fight Club. He did? I hated that! That I didn’t like. Well, with the exception of Fight Club, I’ve liked his work … I’m crazy about Se7en.

BEST ACTOR

It should be a tie between Brad Pitt and Mickey Rourke, though I think Sean Penn will probably win. I don’t know why, but he will. I certainly think as far as stretching body, mind, soul and intellectual capacity, Benjamin Button did that more for Brad Pitt than Milk did for Sean Penn. I think Mickey Rourke’s performance might be my choice even over Brad Pitt. But if ever there was a tie, it should be with Brad Pitt and Mickey Rourke.

BEST ACTRESS

I think Kate Winslet should win for two movies, but she’s only nominated for one. I’d give it to her for The Reader. As for the others, there’s nobody even on the same planet as Kate Winslet. I hated Meryl Streep in Doubt. And I don’t know what happened with Cate Blanchett. She really was wonderful in Benjamin Button. I think they got all their Kates mixed up. Too many Kates. They got her mixed up with Kate Winslet, who was every bit as good in Revolutionary Road as she was in The Reader. But it would be a very bad thing to put her in a supporting category for either film because she didn’t support anybody. Leonardo DiCaprio deserved a nomination for doing the best work of his career. He was really good; it was his best work since What’s Eating Gilbert Grape.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

[Revolutionary Road’s Michael Shannon] was very good. But I think this might be the posthumous award. I don’t think Heath Ledger deserves it at all. I think it was one of the most outrageously cornball performances I’ve ever seen. He chewed all the scenery and if he hadn’t died of what he died of, he would have died of asbestos poisoning—I mean that is truly a stupid performance. Overwrought and badly directed. I hated the movie and I didn’t like the performance at all. Josh Brolin in Milk was wonderful.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

I would probably give it to Viola Davis in Doubt, although it’s such a tiny part it almost seems ridiculous. I also liked Amy Adams. I thought she was the best person in Doubt. Penélope Cruz will win, but she’s not my choice.

svilkomerson@observer.com

We asked about future plans for his work.

“I am always wanting to prove myself to myself,” he said, smiling. He wore a somewhat understated suit with a glossy black and silver striped tie; he held his hands clasped while we talked. "And to remove anxiety. Not that there’s always anxiety, but I think that’s the obstacle. You know? I believe that is my journey in art."

We joked about his appearance as state assemblyman (and future San Francisco mayor) Art Agnos in Gus Van Sant’s Milk. Mr. Koons smiled again.

“Milk was great. Gus called and said he saw me on the Today show and that what he saw [when he watched] me was exactly Art Agnos. Gus is great. To be on set was wonderful because everyone was so passionate about the people--it was really about people, and I was so happy to be part of it and know everyone.”

We asked if our deflated economy will affect what we see of his art.

“I’m not a Reagan Artist,” he said, shrugging.

After parting with Mr. Koons, we bumped into Neal McDonough, a junior member of the club who works for a firm that advises companies on their art acquisitions. He described for us the “old glass butt plug” that was in the foyer of the National Arts Club for a time.

“Some people think of this as an old farts club. It’s not. I’m just so happy to see one of the first artists with a publicist in here receiving this award," said Mr. McDonough, facetiously.

We asked National Arts Club president O. Aldon James Jr. how he felt about Mr. Koons' reputation as an "exemplar of 80s inflation,"  "too commercial,"  "narcissistic..." Mr. James blinked at us from behind pink-tinged glasses. He thumbed his matching pink vest and looked at us earnestly.

"Jeff is a gladiator. This artist"--he pointed into his palm emphatically--"has never been more relevant to the time. As a father he is a great role model, he is an icon. And really," Mr. James looked at us sideways and stage whispered, "People who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones."

While we didn't love Milk as much as everyone else, we're shocked that the great Harris Savides didn't get any notice from his peers. In the Gus Van Sant film, Mr. Savides not only expertly matches many of his shots to the grainy news footage that is weaved seamlessly in-and-out through the picture, he also deftly re-creates some of the iconic shots from the documentary The Times of Harvey Milk—specifically the slow-motion walk of a triumphant Harvey Milk, his boyfriend Jack Lira and many other supporters that you've seen in the trailer. Mr. Savides made San Francisco in the '70s look like we would have imagined, and the thought of him not getting an Oscar nomination this year breaks our hearts.

But the real crime is the exclusion of Declan Quinn. Say what you will about Rachel Getting Married—it's too noisy, too shrill, too long—there was not a better-looking movie in 2008. Director Jonathan Demme and Mr. Quinn create a manic whirlwind with their handheld digital cameras; everything is wobbly, shaky and tonally perfect with what is going on. Whether it's a quiet shot of Anne Hathaway being bathed, in a moment of sisterly love, by Rosemarie Dewitt, or a static and nervous sequence that culminates with Ms. Hathaway crashing her car, Mr. Quinn doesn't miss a beat. (You can see glimpses of both scenes in the trailer.) We had just assumed he'd be recognized by the Oscars come the end of the year. With this snub from the ASC, we're now significantly worried.

As I recall, Alfred Hitchcock’s Vertigo failed then to make my 1958 10-best list. Today, it ranks on my all-time 10-best list! But since I’m unlikely to live another 50 years, though I’ll never stop trying, the following 2008 lists will probably have to do for posterity.

So without further ado, here is my 2008 10-best list for English-language films.

1. Happy-Go-Lucky

2. Gran Torino

3. Frost/Nixon

4. Milk

5. Slumdog Millionaire

6. Vicky Cristina Barcelona

7. W

8. My Blueberry Nights

9. The Bank Job

10. The Visitor

The 10 best foreign-language films:

1. Ashes of Time Redux

2. A Secret

3. A Christmas Tale

4. 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days

5. I’ve Loved You So Long

6. The Class

7. Tell No One

8. The Year My Parents Went on Vacation

9. A Girl Cut in Two

10. The Secrets

Ten movies other people really liked and I didn’t so much:

1. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

2. Doubt

3. Revolutionary Road

4. Changeling

5. Rachel Getting Married

6. The Reader

7. Synecdoche, New York

8. Burn After Reading

9. Miracle at St. Anna

10. Funny Games—The Second Most Hateful Film of All Time, a remake of the First with the same title in 1997, written and directed in both instances by Michael Haneke

Best nonfiction films:

1. Shine a Light

2. Moving Midway

3. Man on Wire

4. Taxi to the Dark Side

5. My Winnipeg

6. Theater of War

7. Trumbo

8. Gonzo: The Life and Work of Dr. Hunter S. Thompson

10. The Chicago 10

11. Roman Polanski: Wanted and Desired

Best animated films:

1. Waltz With Bashir

2. Wall-E

3. Dr. Seuss’ Horton Hears a Who

4. Delgo

5. Kung Fu Panda

6. Bolt

7. The Tale of Despereaux

Other English-language films of interest: The Wrestler, August Evening, The Guitar, Eden, A Previous Engagement, Elegy, Bonneville, Bra Boys, Cadillac Records, Brideshead Revisited, Frozen River, Hounddog, In Bruges, In Search of a Midnight Kiss, Lake City, Last Chance Harvey, Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day, The Promotion, The Wackness, Wendy and Lucy, Stop-Loss, The Tracey Fragments, Sleepwalking, Yella, Sixty Six, Zack and Miri Make a Porno, While She Was Out, Defiance, Adam Resurrected

Other foreign-language films of interest: The Witnesses, The Counterfeiters, Boarding Gate, Irina Palm, Priceless, Flight of the Red Balloon, Roman de Gare, XXY, I Served the King of England, One Day You’ll Understand

As a member of the New York Film Critics Circle and the National Society of Film Critics, I voted for the following players on my first ballot:

Best Actress:

Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky

Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road, The Reader

Kristin Scott Thomas, I’ve Loved You So Long, Tell No One

Best Actor:

Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino

Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon

Sean Penn, Milk

Best Supporting Actress:

Debra Winger, Rachel Getting Married

Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Elegy

Elizabeth Banks, Zack and Miri Make a Porno

Best Supporting Actor:

Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

Willem Dafoe, Adam Resurrected

Josh Brolin, Milk, W

Other female performances of distinction are as follows: Marianne Faithful, Siobhán Hewlett, Irina Palm; Eileen Atkins, Last Chance Harvey; Olivia Thirlby, Famke Janssen, The Wackness; Marie-Jose Croze, Tell No One; Beyoncé Knowles, Cadillac Records; Audrey Tautou, Priceless; Abbie Cornish, Stop-Loss; Nicole Kidman, Australia; Alison Pill, Milk; Sissy Spacek, Rebecca Romijn, Lake City; Ania Bukstein, Rivka Michaeli, The Secrets; Jessica Lange, Kathy Bates, Joan Allen, Bonneville; Michelle Williams, Wendy and Lucy; Meryl Streep, Doubt, Theater of War; Amy Adams, Doubt; Lili Taylor, Jenna Fischer, The Promotion; Hiam Abbass, Danai Gurira, The Visitor; Kathy Bates, Revolutionary Road; Rebecca Hall, Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Frost/Nixon; Kate Jennings Grant, Patty McCormack, Frost/Nixon; Hanna Schygulla, The Edge of Heaven; Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler; Norah Jones, Natalie Portman, Rachel Weisz, My Blueberry Nights; Winona Ryder, Sex and Death 101; Viola Davis, Doubt; Anamaria Marinca, Laura Vasiliu, 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days; Emmanuelle Béart, The Witnesses; Charlize Theron, AnnaSophia Robb, Sleepwalking; Juliet Stevenson, A Previous Engagement; Ellen Page, The Tracey Fragments; Kate Beckinsale, Amy Sedaris, Olivia Thirlby, Snow Angels; Cécile De France, Ludivine Sagnier, A Secret; Veronica Loren, August Evening; Juliet Stevenson, When Did You Last See Your Father?; Ann Savage, My Winnipeg; Catherine Deneuve, Anne Consigny, Emmanuelle Devos, Chiara Mastroianni, A Christmas Tale; Jeanne Moreau, One Day You’ll Understand.

Other male performances of distinction are as follows: Ben Kingsley, The Wackness, Elegy; Hugh Jackman, Bryan Brown, David Wenham, Australia; Daniel Craig, Mathieu Amalric, Quantum of Solace; Adrien Brody, Cadillac Records; Michael Sheen, Sam Rockwell, Oliver Platt, Matthew Macfadyen, Kevin Bacon, Toby Jones, Gabriel Jarret, Jim Meskimen, Frost/Nixon; James Franco, Milk; Karl Markovics, August Diehl, The Counterfeiters; Ralph Fiennes, David Kross, Bruno Ganz, The Reader; Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler; Richard Jenkins, Haaz Sleiman, The Visitor; Leonardo DiCaprio, Michael Shannon, David Harbour, Revolutionary Road; Leslie Cheung, Tony Leung, Ashes of Time Redux; Francois Bégaudeau, The Class; Jude Law, David Strathairn, John Malloy, My Blueberry Nights; Daniel Stern, Tcheky Karyo, A Previous Engagement; Nick Stahl, Dennis Hopper, Woody Harrelson, Mathew St. Patrick, Sleepwalking; Mathieu Amalric, Jean-Pierre Kalfon, Michael Lonsdale, Lou Castel, Heartbeat Detector; Francois Cluzet, André Dussollier, Tell No One; Philip Seymour Hoffman, Synecdoche, New York, Doubt; Jeff Goldblum, Adam Resurrected; Daniel Craig, Defiance; Seann William Scott, John C. Reilly, The Promotion; Tom Skerritt, Victor Rasuk, Bonneville; Ingvar Sigurdsson, Jar City; Eddie Marsan, Happy-Go-Lucky, Sixty Six; Sam Rockwell, Snow Angels; Pedro Castaneda, Abel Becerra, August Evening; Michel Joelsas, The Year My Parents Went on Vacation; Jean-Paul Roussillon, Mathieu Amalric, Melvil Poupaud, Hippolyte Girardot, A Christmas Tale.

And so on to 2009, a hopefully happier year than 2008, especially offscreen. Onscreen, as always, will take care of itself.

asarris@observer.com

We know already that someone won't be Slumdog Millionaire, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button or Milk. All three films have been locked into a Best Picture nomination for quite some time. Conventional wisdom seems to be that The Dark Knight will be the odd film out, but we think it's just as much of a lock as the other three. In addition to being the highest grossing film of the year--don't pretend that doesn't matter--The Dark Knight has done extremely well during the awards season. Its snub at the Golden Globes notwithstanding, Christopher Nolan's epic was the runner-up for the Los Angeles Film Critics (behind Wall-E), a National Board of Review nominee, a Critics Choice nominee and in a compilation of over 220 critics top ten lists, it ranks number two overall... behind Wall-E, again. If, as expected, Mr. Nolan gets a Directors Guild of America nomination on Thursday, it will only further cement the film's bonafides for a Best Picture selection.

Unfortunately the same thing can't be said about Frost/Nixon. Despite racking up nominations all over the place, no one seems to really love this movie, do they? Even if the ever likeable Ron Howard draws a nomination from the Directors Guild (likely to happen), we don't think it'll be enough to save Tricky Dick's Best Picture aspirations. Frost/Nixon feels incredibly vulnerable.

So what will replace it in the fifth and final slot? Wall-E would have been the clear choice, but since the PGA left it off their list and director Andrew Stanton was disqualified from being nominated by the Directors Guild because the film is animated, the outlook is bleak. You can also go ahead and toe-tag Revolutionary Road, The Reader, The Wrestler and Rachel Getting Married. That leaves just two contenders: Doubt and Gran Torino. The story goes that actors make up the largest voting block in the Academy and they love bestowing praise onto actor-heavy films. Doubt, well on its way to scoring four acting nominations, certainly fits that bill. But we'll go out on a limb and say that Gran Torino is the final pick based on a groundswell of support for Clint Eastwood from the entire voting constituency. When you get right down to it, the Oscars are just a big popularity contest and everyone loves Clint... even when he's playing a racist with a heart of gold.