"For a brief moment I thought, 'God, that could have been me,'" Mr. King told me this afternoon.

The Long Island congressman said he watched Democrats lose their filibuster-proof majority surrounded by disappointed colleagues from across the aisle.

"I was with a group of them when the numbers started coming in and—to a man—they were telling me they'd tell the leadership they could not even consider supporting the Senate bill," said Mr. King.

He said the win would "energize" Republicans. "I think it makes at least 40 or 50 Democratic seats now in play. Not only that, we have candidates coming forward to run against Democrats in pretty secure Democratic districts," he said, adding that would tie up campaign dollars that might have gone to help bolster candidates in less-secure districts.

Mr. Brown's win bodes well for Mr. King. He passed on a Senate run in the hopes that the G.O.P. could retake the House and re-install him as chairman of the Homeland Security Committee.

Which might make committee hearings like the one today—an inquiry into the White House "gatecrashers"—much less frustrating.

In the absence of White House Social Secretary Desiree Rogers—who has not been subpoenaed by the committee's Democratic leadership, despite Mr. King's best efforts—the committee was left to question the gatecrashers themselves, Tareq and Michaele Salahi, who responded to each inquiry by pleading the Fifth.

"They're almost incidental in this. To me, they're a symptom of what went wrong," said Mr. King, who did not ask the couple any questions. More important is how they got in, he said, and what might have happened.

"They could have been terrorists, they could have been psychopaths, they could have attacked the president, the vice president," he said. "At those events there are sharp instruments and if you're somebody who's skilled, you could lunge—I mean, they had their arm around Joe Biden. And also to be so close to the prime minister of India."

"I'm very hopeful that President Obama turned a corner yesterday," Rudy Giuliani told George Stephanpoulos on Good Morning America today. "He first used the words--thank goodness--'war on terror.' He hasn't done that since he was a candidate."

How--and how often--Mr. Obama refers to terrorism have been sticking points for some Republicans. Earlier this week, Representative Pete King called on the president to say the word "terrorism" more often.

Mr. Giuliani also offered some suggestions and rattled off a quick scorecard this morning. "What he [Obama] should be doing is following the right things that Bush did -- one of the right things he did was treat this as a war on terror. We had no domestic attacks under Bush. We've had one under Obama," Mr. Giuliani said.

Presumably, he meant after the 9/11 attacks.

"Just keep working hard," Tedisco told me by phone. "It's always a battle when somebody tries to distort your record. The Democrats are very good at that. Dede's got a record, he doesn't."

Just like Tedisco's race against Scott Murphy. And vastly more money is being committed to Bill Owens' candidacy than Scozzafava's. Kind of like Tedisco's race. And the NRCC is blanketing the air with negative advertisements, that seem to be hurting Scozzafava--exactly the same problem that sunk Tedisco.

"I've looked at the ads," he said. "It can't be a coincidence that her contrast ads are not perceived well just like my contrast ads were not perceived well. There's a reason for that--she's an elected official who's got a record."

He said Democrats "seem to have found a formula that works" in picking candidates without records and focusing about job creation.

Scozzafava's record has become more a liability than an asset. She has been branded a liberal by conservative pundits, and that storm of criticism against her continued today. (Doug Hoffman, the nominee of the Conservative Party, is siphoning Scozzafava's support.) Michelle Malkin wrote this morning in the Post that Scozzafava is on an "extremist fringe" for her past embrace of the Working Families Party and says of Republicans that "The Stupid Party is on a suicide mission."

Talking this morning on Fred Dicker's radio show, longtime strategist Roger Stone said Republicans "picked the worst candidate they could."

"If I lived in the district I would vote for Hoffman. I think from time to time the party needs to be reminded what we stand for," Stone said. "I think there's a long-term lesson for the party."

Scozzafava's campaign has started to fire back with endorsements from conservative Republicans. On Friday it was Newt Gingrich. Today, it's Representative Pete King, who warned that "a vote for either of her opponents is a vote for Nancy Pelosi and her far left, radical agenda."

Gillibrand has been working to raise her profile since she was appointed in January, unknown to most of the state. Recently, powerful Democrats, including Chuck Schumer and even Barack Obama, have intervened to help her avoid a primary. 

"The election is well over a year away, and with the Democratic field for Senator Gillibrand becoming clearer by the day, focus on the general election increases," Steve Greenberg, a poll spokesman, said.

In a hypothetical general election between Gillibrand and former governor George Pataki, a possible Republican candidate, the poll has them tied with 43 percent each. In a race with Long Island Representative Peter King, Gillibrand would win by a margin of 48-26.

This survey, consistent with the figures from April, put David Paterson's approval at a very low 18 percent. His favorability rating, 27 percent, is not great either, leaving Andrew Cuomo with 70 percent of potential Democratic primary voters.

The poll also found New Yorkers still split on the issue of same-sex marriage.

"The Republican Party does best when it organizes around economic issues and issues of national security. We end up getting back to being a majority party that way. And on these social issues, I really respect [Dean Skelos] for leaving that to the conscience of the people that are voting. Our party should be built around fiscal confidence, fiscal integrity."

Liz Benjamin asked Giuliani whether this was at odds with statements he made in the Post this morning about a "grass-roots movement" against the proposal.

"There will be," Giuliani said. "That will emerge because there are people who feel very strongly as a matter of conscience against this."

He said his position has been a consistent one: he supports civil unions but not actual same-sex marriage.

He was noncommittal when asked if he would run for governor.

His answer: It was Newsday.

"It's five hours to the polls, but based on everything I know, as of 4:35 this is a campaign totally contrived by Newsday," he said.

He said the reports of his fund-raising were greatly downplayed in the paper while the reports of money raised by his opponent, Dave Mejias, were inflated. He pointed out that neither MoveOn.org, NARAL or any other national liberal organizations even got behind Mejias, as far as he could see.

"And also you haven't seen any poll released by him," King said. "And I know he has taken polls."

So, in King's calculations, that leaves Newsday.

"I have something to say tonight about Newsday , and it is not going to be a rant, it is going to be something fairly thoughtful, I hope, on what they have done here."

When told about King's comments suggesting that Newsday exaggerated the competitiveness of Mejias' campaign, John Mancini, the paper's editor, said, "We disagree strongly."

"All we have done," Mancini said, "is cover a Congressional race on Long Island."

--Jason Horowitz

The firm defended the accuracy of its data in a discussion last week.

Now, after Constituent Dynamics released another poll earlier today showing King up by a mere 49 percent to Mejias' 48 percent among likely voters, the congressman is even more convinced that the numbers are a fiction.

"There is no credibility to those polls," King said.

By way of contrast, he shared what we said were his internal polling numbers -- from the firm McLaughlin & Associates -- which showed that as of October 18th, he was up 55 percent to 32 percent. A subsequent polling of 400 people taken Friday October 27th showed a 54 percent to 27 percent advantage.

Meanwhile, Mejias is plugging away, releasing another ad today taking King to task for his support of President Bush and the war in Iraq.

--Jason Horowitz

Jason Horowitz takes a look at Pete King, a wartime congressman who, unlike most of his Republican colleagues and fellow candidates, isn't scared of talking about the war. "I am what I am," he said. He's a hawk, but will that hurt him in November?

Choire Sicha hits the roads of Hillaryland, where the onetime "cutie" stares daggers into John Spencer at the debate in Rochester. He also observes the sophisticated mechanics of the Hillary news cycle: reporters want to know about 08, so Hillary talks about 08, and then reporters write about Hillary talking about 08.

John Koblin has the goods on Bill Clinton's three-day 60th birthday bash. He tells us who's going (Burkle!) how much guests are paying (60 - 500 grand) the entertainment (The Rolling Stones, golfing) and who's tired of Bill's endless fund-raising carnivals (much of New York.)

Steve Kornacki follows the ripples of Barack Obama's announcement that he is "considering" a presidential run all the way into the House. Sure, the country's lone black Senator is generating great excitement, but what about guys, like, Charlie Rangel, who have helped run the country for decades? Why hasn't anybody ever been excited about any of them?

And Joe Conason is evermore depressed by the Republican leadership and the spiraling situation in Iraq.

"He's good, he's been very outspoken on this issue all along, and he can cross party lines," he said of Bloomberg, who also spoke briefly with President Bush about the cuts yesterday. "He has now hit the stage of Washington celebrity. People will come and listen to him."

King said he was realistic about what he expected to come out of the hearing.

"The ideal is Chertoff saying I'm wrong, here's the money, but I don't think that is going to happen," said King. "The realistic optimum in that they give a broad enough definition of terror money that we get some transportation and interoperability money."

- Jason Horowitz