Jacoby Ellsbury’s steal of home in Sunday night’s game – with New York third baseman Cody Ransom standing so far away from Ellsbury that he couldn’t have identified him in a police lineup -- didn’t end the season for the New York Yankees, but if things continue like this for much longer, Yankee fans will look back on it as if it had.

This team is a $200 million mess with several semi-pro players on the roster and an aging superstructure on the verge of collapse. Alex Rodriguez is due back soon, but the Yankees’ season may well be over by then. Meanwhile, there’s one possible shot in the arm that could start a reversal in their fortunes. As we go to press, it looks as if Phil Hughes will be starting Tuesday night against the Tigers at Detroit. It’s about time.

If American sports’ most valuable franchise ($1.5 billion according to a recent Forbes assessment) had a modicum of wit to match its wealth, Hughes would have started the season on the Yankees roster.

Two years ago, when he was the second-youngest player in the American League, Hughes was looked on as the hottest pitching prospect in the Bronx since ... well, probably ever.  He was built like a younger, slightly taller Roger Clemens, with virtually the same mechanics – the same repertoire and velocity. “The Pocket Rocket,” they were calling him. There seemed no limit to what Hughes could do.  The excitement that surrounded him was much like the hype that greeted Joba Chamberlain a few months later.  They were, potentially, the two greatest young pitchers to come along at the same time ever in Yankee history.

The radar gun on Hughes’s early appearances put him at just under 97 mph on a four-seam fastball, and the slow ball he threw off that pitch was referred to by then-Yankees pitching coach Ron Guidry as “a knee buckler” – batters would bend at the knee trying to follow the ball as it broke down and then, as if frozen in place, watch it drop over the plate for an embarrassing strike. 

Hughes’s promise seemed on the verge of deliverance on May 1 of 2007 when he threw a no-hitter for 6 1/3 innings before sustaining what the injury report called a “Grade 1 hamstring strain.”  Hughes didn’t think it required rehab, but 24 days later he sprained an ankle during a conditioning exercise. The docs slapped a Grade 3 on that one and Hughes was out of the lineup for 3 ½ months.

He’s never quite been able to put it back together, though he finished the 2007 season with a 5-3 record, striking out 58 and walking just 29 in 72.2 innings. He finished the season with a fine bit of relief in the ALDS against Cleveland, giving up three hits and striking out six in 5 2/3 innings. But he had a miserable 2008 in every sense, losing all four of his decisions with a 6.62 ERA.  The cheering postseason news was that it may not have been his fault:  tests later revealed that he had pitched with a stress fracture in a rib, which caused him to work in pain. After rehab and the addition of a smart cut-fastball to his armament, his strikeout ratio shot back up – 38 Ks in 30 innings in the Arizona fall league. Hopes resumed for the season.

And what did the Yankees do?  They signed 37-year-old Andy Pettitte to fill out the starting rotation. Pettitte has gone 43-36 over the past three seasons and was 14-14 last year, and you know he’s not going to pitch much better than that this year.  If the Yankees had guts and imagination, Phil Hughes would be in the starting rotation now instead of waiting to see if Chien-Ming Wang’s April swoon is permanent or temporary.

If the Yankees organization had just a single person with vision, it would be understood that Hughes is worth taking a chance on, that he has the potential to be the Yankees’ future and that he is giving the Yankees absolutely no return for the enormous investment they’ve put into him simply by filling few extra seats for his starts in Trenton.

What you can’t help wondering is why, up to now, it wouldn’t have been possible to prepare him for a slot in the starting five with some on-the-job training in the bullpen?  Why, exactly, did we have to wait to see if Wang’s arm fell off before Hughes was given a chance to pitch?

When I popped this question to pitching coach Dave Eiland – who does not set but merely reflects the Yankees’ strategy -- his response was, “We want him to be a starter, and the best way to do that is to find him starts, not use him out of the bullpen.” O.K., fine, but how do you “find” starts for a pitcher?  The only way Hughes would have gotten chances is if Wang or someone else failed, and then what?  In other words, the Yankees have been operating in their usual crisis-management mode, and after the weekend’s Red Sox disaster, it’s crisis time.

Before the Boston Red Sox series, the Yankees, particularly Brian Cashman, had become pretty arrogant about their long-time sore spot, pitching. “I think we’ve got the best starting rotation in the league,” Cashman was heard to say just a week ago. They do if C.C. Sabathia settles down, if A.J. Burnett doesn’t get injured, if Joba Chamberlain lives up to his great potential, if Andy Pettitte pitches a little better at 37 than he did at 36, and – biggest if of all – if Chien-Ming Wang rediscovers how to make his sinker sink.

That’s a lot of ifs, and Phil Hughes is a big if, too.  But he’s a gamble that can pay off in a major way, one that could turn an entire season around.  Hughes could be that good; just two short years ago everyone in the Yankees organization thought that was the case.   They could have made him part of a package deal for Johan Santana, and they chose not to.

Now’s the time to start justifying that decision by handing him the ball. 

But Hughes hasn’t merely been mixing good starts with bad thus far—he’s been almost uniformly awful. The reason isn’t a lack of talent, but a unfortunate penchant for throwing assorted pitches across the plate, rather than up and down. When his pitches move horizontally in the strike zone, they are pounded. And then he stops throwing strikes.

He began his last start displaying that reticence, walking Curtis Granderson to lead off the game. His very first pitch was a fastball that sailed across on him, missing badly outside. The seventh pitch of the at-bat did the same, but sailed in on Granderson.

Placido Polanco followed with a single on a fastball in—well-placed, but Polanco hit it into left field.

With two men on, Hughes showed in rapid succession why the Yankees are excited about his future, and why his talent has not translated into results so far. Against Gary Sheffield, Hughes painted the outside corner with a terrific fastball at 92 miles per hour. He followed with a curve that badly fooled Sheffield at 72 miles per hour. His fastball just missed down at 93, but the subsequent curveball tied Sheffield up in knots. A rightful Hall of Famer was dispatched in four pitches.

Facing the next hitter, Hughes fell behind, 2-0. He muscled up on a fastball—it traveled at 94 mph, his fastest of the night, but it bounced into the dirt and skipped past catcher Chris Stewart, allowing the runners to move up. The next fastball moved across the plate, and Magglio Ordonez lined a single to center field, where Johnny Damon’s weak arm meant an automatic two runs.

The Hughes Grade-A fastball returned in time to get Miguel Cabrera, Detroit’s best hitter, to hit into a inning-ending double play.

The second inning was clearly Hughes’ best, and what the Yankees are looking for from him. He succeeded by throwing the fastball, curve and changeup that allowed him to do so well in the minors. Against Carlos Guillen, Hughes ran the count to 2-2 on four good fastballs. He missed up with a curve to run the count full; he then threw a put-away fastball that Guillen fouled off, followed by a put-away curve that Guillen weakly grounded to second base for the first out.

Edgar Renteria followed by flying out to right field on a terrific fastball on the inside corner. Hughes then got ahead of Ivan Rodriguez on two fastballs and one of his best curves of the night. Rodriguez fought off one good fastball in, then lined a second into right field. Sometimes, good pitches get hit.

Jacque Jones was subjected to the full Hughes treatment. First, a fastball away for strike one. Then, after a curve missed, a changeup on the outside corner for strike two. Finally, that sharp curve struck Jones out looking.

Then: The good Hughes simply disappeared. Against Granderson, he threw a fastball across the plate for strike one. He missed with a curve high, then came back with another flat fastball, which Granderson launched beyond the center-field fence. Next, against Polanco, he left a pair of curveballs up, one strike, one ball. Two fastballs followed, both sliding across the plate—Polanco hit the second into left for a ground-rule double.

Then Gary Sheffield, who Hughes had mastered so completely in his first at-bat, came up. Hughes missed high with a curveball, then threw a fastball on the inside corner to draw even. But rather than challenge Sheffield again, he threw three progressively weaker curves. The third one Sheffield found to be just right, and deposited it in the left-field stands.

Magglio Ordonez followed, and got ahead 1-0, then just missed a fastball that simply stayed across the hitting zone. Ordonez flied out to center field. Against Miguel Cabrera, an attempt at a slider didn’t go well—it simply sailed well off the plate. Finally, one of his rare good pitches, a strong curve, allowed him to get the second out of the inning with a groundout.

The inning continued. Against Guillen, following a curve for a strike, a fastball sailed wide, the change did the same, another fastball sailed wide, then Hughes muscled up on a fastball—and missed down. Edgar Renteria finally rescued Hughes on a 2-2 hanging curve that he lined right at Bobby Abreu for the third out.

Good Hughes returned to get the first two outs in the fourth. A good fastball in and a pair of strong curves led to a weak groundout by Ivan Rodriguez. His first pitch to Jones sailed away, but the next fastball hit the inside corner, and two solid curves led to a groundout to third.

But Hughes appeared to lose command in the middle of Granderson's at-bat. Up 1-2, Hughes threw a changeup that sailed across and out of the strike zone, then left a curveball up that Granderson lined past Hideki Matsui for a double.

Polanco followed by letting an identical curve go for ball one, then lined a fastball that moved across the strike zone for a single to plate Granderson.

Hughes’ third battle with Sheffield, his last batter of the night, was a surrender. He missed up with a fastball he tried to overthrow. Next was a fastball right down the middle that Sheffield just missed, fouling it back. His fastball missed down. His curveball missed up. His fastball missed down. Hughes wasn’t hitting his spots—it wasn’t even clear what spots he was trying to hit.

Manager Joe Girardi came for Hughes, and the pitcher New York refused to trade for Johan Santana exited to boos.

Clearly, the pitches that allowed Hughes to succeed as recently as recently as last season are still within his repertoire. Even in his difficult starts, he is able to make hitters look foolish with three different pitches.

But while the occasional hanging curveball is the price nearly any pitcher pays for throwing so many of them, the horizontal fastball and changeup simply won’t allow Hughes to succeed—he doesn’t throw hard enough for that pitch to be anything other than batting practice.

Hughes was placed on the disabled list around 9 Wednesday evening, after manager Joe Girardi insisted he was healthy when asked by reporters prior to Wednesday's game.

UPDATE: Hughes is expected to miss two months, according to GM
Brian Cashman, who told the Associated Press on Thursday, "His fastball command has been uncommonly off. Now we get an idea why."